Campaign Diaries

We might still be in November 2008, but some of our most pressing questions concerning the 2010 midterms are already being answered. That is particularly the case in Arizona, where John McCain is up for re-election in two years.

Democrats would be well-placed to pick-up the seat if McCain decided to retire. Alternatively, they could catapult Arizona into the top-tier of their Senate opportunities if term-limited Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano ran against McCain. Over the past 48 hours, however, both of these possibilities have become highly improbable, strengthening the GOP’s hand in this important Senate seat.

First, the Associated Press reported that McCain had decided to run for a fifth term and to prepare the preliminary steps of his candidacy. In particular, he is planning to relaunch his leadership PAC, a move that would make little sense if McCain did not intend to stay active in electoral politics. (Of course, there is plenty of time for McCain to change his mind. It has only been two weeks since he lost the presidential election, and there is no telling how he will adjust to life in the Senate.)

Meanwhile, Napolitano is likely to be heading to Washington. She had long been rumored for a Cabinet Post, but most of the speculation focused on Attorney General, a post that is reportedly going to Eric Holder. Now, Politico is reporting that Napolitano will be tapped for Homeland Security Secretary. If that is confirmed, she would hvae to resign from her gubernatorial job and most probably forgo any senatorial prospects for 2010.

This is not to say that another Democrat could not make the race competitive. Over the past year, McCain exhibited some stunning vulnerabilities in his home state. First, his primary victory on Super Tuesday was unexpectedly tight, and he failed to cross 50%. Second, he never pulled away in the general election, even getting a scare in the final week as polls showed Obama closing in within the margin of error. While McCain ended up winning Arizona by 9%, he was forced to to schedule a campaign event on November 3rd - surely not the way his staffers were envisioning closing the campaign.

Yet, it is unclear what Democrats would take the risk of facing McCain, especially since the gubernatorial election is a far more promising bet for ambitious Democrats looking to move up. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, first elected in 2006, is mentioned as a possibility but she has yet to build a bigger profile and would she give up her relatively comfortable House seat for a dangerous statewide run?

The other major consequence of a Napolitano tap, of course, would be to throw Arizona’s governorship in the hands of the GOP. Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer would take over. Given that Brewer is already mentioned as a possible contender for an open seat, it seems a safe bet to say that she would run for re-election if she becomes the incumbent - thus making it much more difficult for Democrats to win the seat in 2010.

The state is poised to gain House seats after the next census, which means that Arizona’s redistricting will be extremely important. Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and Democrats would have no seat at the redistricting table if Republicans also hold the governor’s mansion after 2010. (Important correction: This last paragraph was wrong. As a commenter points out, Arizona is one of the states where redistricting is done by an independent commission ever since voters approved a proposition in 2000.)