Welcome to the first poll watch of the 2009-2010 cycle! Just over two weeks have passed since Election Day 2008, and the partisan breakdown of the 111th Congress still remains to be decided. But it’s never too early to think about upcoming elections, especially when polling institutes give us an excuse to do so.
(However, and while it is nice it is to get numbers for 2009 and 2010 elections, it would be more useful at the moment to see some surveys of Georgia’s runoff. Only Research 2000 has released a poll for now, finding Chambliss leading by 3%.)
First is New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, which will take place next year, in the fall of 2009. Incumbent John Corzine is expected to run for re-election, though is mentioned as a possible Treasury Secretary in an Obama Administration. (If he moves to Washington, the election is of course a whole new ball game.) Corzine is somewhat favored to hold on to his seat, but it would be certainly be no slam dunk. While New Jersey voters typically flirt with Republicans before deserting them in the last stretch, Corzine is unpopular enough that the GOP could mount a credible challenge.
Quinnipiac released a poll today finding that Corzine’s approval rating is a net negative (43-46) and that the incumbent barely leads one of the GOP’s top potential contenders, US Attorney Christopher Christie: 42% to 36%. These are good numbers for a candidate who is still unknown to 70% of New Jersey voters.
Second is New York’s gubernatorial race, where incumbent David Paterson is also expected to seek his first full term (he came in power after Elliot Spitzer was forced to resign last spring). It is hard to see the GOP mount a strong challenge given their dismal state after the 2006 and 2008 elections, but one Republican could make the race interesting: Rudy Giuliani.
Siena came out with a poll testing the match-up yesterday. It found Paterson narrowly leading, 49% to 43%, suggesting that Rudy could at the very least make things competitive. When paired up against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Giuliani takes a 46% to 44% lead. However much Cuomo wants to move to the gubernatorial mansion, however, it looks like challenging Paterson in a primary would be a bad idea: the incumbent crushes him 53% to 25%.
Third is Florida’s Senate race, where Republican incumbent Mel Martinez is considered one of the most endangered Senators of the 2010 cycle and is virtually certain to draw top-tier Democratic challengers. Quinnipiac’s latest poll did not test actual match-ups, but it did confirm that Martinez is highly vulnerable: Only 36% of voters say he deserves another term, while 38% say he does not. When paired up against a generic Democrat, Martinez trails 40% to 36% - a dismal showing for an incumbent two years before the election. (Martinez only gets 28% among independents.)
On the other hand, Republican Governor Charlie Crist is looking very strong: 58% of Floridians say he deserves to be re-elected (against 27%) and he beats a generic Democrat by 22% (and 26% among independents). With a Senate race to jump into, it is doubtful many top Democrats will choose to challenge Crist. With a staggeirng number of competitive-looking gubernatorial races, defeating seat is unlikely to be a Democratic priority.
November 19, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Crist looks good because he doesn’t do anything, doesn’t piss anyone off. The People will wake up when o-ten rolls around.
DraftAlex.com
November 20, 2008 at 4:04 am
[...] Poll watch: The Rudy factor, Martinez’s vulnerabilities, Crist’s strength Second is New York’s gubernatorial race, where incumbent David Paterson is also expected to seek his first full term (he came in power after Elliot Spitzer was forced to resign last spring). It is hard to see the GOP mount a strong challenge given their dismal state after the 2006 and 2008 elections, but one Republican could make the race interesting: Rudy Giuliani. [...]