Mark Begich has defeated Alaska’s legendary Ted Stevens to earn himself a place in the U.S. Senate, making this the first time a Democrat has won a federal election in Alaska since 1974. This seat becomes the Democrats’ 7th pick-up of the year, raising their total to 58 seats with two more Republican incumbents still hanging in the balance.
24,000 ballots were counted today, and they broke towards Begich just as earlier questioned and absentee ballots had. The Democratic nominee dramatically increased his lead from 1,022 to 3,724 votes. This means that Stevens would not be able to overtake Begich no matter how overseas absentees break (such ballots are allowed to arrive until tomorrow as long as they were postmarked by Election Day). It also means that there will be no recount, as Begich’s lead of 1.18% is more than the double of the recount threshold.
This completes an extraordinary election in which one of the most towering figures of American politics found himself embroiled in an FBI investigation, then indicted, then tried a month before the Election and convicted with only one week of campaigning left. It is a testament to Stevens’ immense stature that Begich only prevailed by a few thousands votes. No other incumbent could have remained within single-digits after becoming a convicted felon.
Begich’s election keeps the Democrats’ hope of reaching 60 seats alive and dependent on a Georgia runoff and a Minnesota recount. It also leaves Sarah Palin no immediate path to join the Senate, rendering moot the speculation that she might have run in the spring special election that would have probably followed a Stevens victory. Some say that Palin might challenge Senator Murkowski in the GOP’s 2010 primary, but that would undoubtedly be a dangerous path to take.
I would also like to point that the current landscape looks exactly like my final Senate ratings I released the week-end before the election:
- All seven GOP-held seats that I had rated as likely or lean Democratic (Alaska was in the latter group) have turned blue.
- The two GOP-held seats that I had rated as likely or lean GOP (Mississippi and Kentucky) were won by the Republican incumbents.
- The two GOP-held seats that I had rated as toss-ups (Georgia and Minnesota) remain undecided.
This goes to show that there were no upset results in this year’s Senate races, and while Gordon Smith and Ted Stevens resisted longer than we might have expected, that was due more to delays in counting than in the closeness of their races: Jeff Merkley won by 3% and Begich by more than 1%, margins that in other states would have been enough to lead for much quicker calls.
Original post, four hours ago: With 14,000 more Alaska ballots counted out of the 24,000 that will be tallied today, Mark Begich has more than doubled his lead to 2,374 votes. The remaining ballots are currently being counted, and the Division of Elections expects to release more results between 4pm and 5pm (that’s between 8pm and 9pm ET).
The race is technically not over yet, but Stevens would need to win about 65% of the remaining ballots, making it difficult to imagine how he could overtake his opponent. More to come in the coming hours.
Maybe Ted can run for president of the federal prison he will be going to… :)
The A.P. has called it for Begich!
wooohoooo!!
58 ohhh yeah!!!!!!
Yay! This is getting very interesting. And now all eyes turn to MN and GA.
It also leaves Sarah Palin no immediate path to join the Senate, rendering moot the speculation that she might have run in the spring special election that would have probably followed a Stevens victory.
I think moving to the Senate would have been a poor move for Palin anyway. If she’s still aiming at national office, she has nothing but the Republican base supporting her at the moment and I think that more time in DC would substantially expand her opportunities for gaffes and mistakes than expand her appeal. Her best course would be to stay in Alaska and show her mettle as an executive to try to prove her doubters wrong.
But she’s apparently not alone in thinking that if conservatives keep playing the culture wars instead of coming up with real proposals for people’s everyday concerns, the nation will eventually come around. I think it’s a losing strategy.
Re OH-15, Stivers is up by 393 votes, due to corrections of counting errors.
About half of the provisional ballots from Franklin County are in OH-15, though getting the 1000 dusputed ballots counted would be a big boost to Kilroy’s chances.
I agree with DSimon the Senate would have been a bad move for Palin. The GOP will go further right for 2012 and then after losing heavily again realise they need to move towards the center. This happened in the UK after 1979 and 1997 when the Incumbent party lost (Labour and Conservative’s repsectively) and then they went further to their extreme and got wiped out in the next election (1983 and 2001 respectively). Only then did they moderate and eventually win.
60 is most important for judicial nominations
I think Senators Spector, Collins and Snowe are moderate enough to vote with the Democrats on judges
I’m hoping for Franken and Martin victories…
But, I expect the odds are too long
Obama will have no problems with the Republicans if he’s as deft and efficient as he seems
Even if Dems reach 60, keep in mind that there are several conservative Dems who will be unwilling to offend their constituents in red states. Maybe moderate Republicans like Susan Collins (which I personally like her for her bipartisan record) might tip the balance in the Dems’ favor. Likewise, those conservative Dems may move to vote alongside Republicans.