Campaign Diaries

The stakes might not be as high as those of Election Day, but the next 24 hours will be crucial for the future of three Senate seats: One Senator will be disciplined, another will claim victory and a third will be one step closer to emerging victorious.

In Alaska, all of the remaining 24,000 ballots (about 8% of the total of votes cast) will finally be tallied. For now, Democratic nominee Mark Begich leads by 1,022 votes. As I explained on Friday in my analysis of where the outstanding ballots are located, Ted Stevens has no more obvious reservoir of votes as his strongholds have finally reporting. On the other hand, the state’s most Democratic area has also finished counting, so the fate of the election is in the hands of Juneau, where Begich did very well, and the Anchorage region, where both candidates have strong districts.

Due to the time difference, we should not expect any results before late afternoon/early evening. If the margin between Begich and Stevens is within 0.5% tonight (it now stands at 0.35%), a recount can be requested - but that shouldn’t prevent us from having an infinitely clearer idea of who is likely to represent Alaska in the next Congress.

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Ted Stevens at least (temporarily) dodged one bullet as the Senate’s Republican caucus delayed an internal vote on whether to expel Stevens until Alaska’s count is over. But the day of reckoning has arrived for Joe Lieberman as Senate Democrats are currently holding a meeting on how to discipline their party’s former vice-presidential nominee.

Last week, momentum seemed to be building in favor of Lieberman retaining his Homeland Security chairmanship; then, a number of high-profile Senators (including Lieberman-ally Tom Carper) spoke out against Lieberman, suggesting that Lieberman could lose the chairmanship after all. But the AP reported yesterday that a deal had been struck to allow Lieberman to keep the prized chairmanship, but strip him of the gavel of lesser subcommittees. The vote will be held via secret balloting, so we are unlikely to know any vote breakdown (results are expected within the next few hours).

If Lieberman is indeed stripped of his chairmanship, the new congressional parlor game will undoubtedly be to guess whether Lieberman jolts to the Republican caucus, though it would most certainly be unfair for Lieberman to claim that the treatment he is receiving is unfair or unusual. The New Republic’s Jonathan Chait points out that no sitting congressman had backed a member of the opposite party since 1964 when two Democrats supported Barry Goldwater, and that resulted in their losing their seniority. Lieberman’s decision to help Norm Coleman in Minnesota has also put Lieberman at odds with his caucus.

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Finally, in Minnesota, the State Canvassing Board meets today to certify the results of the November 4th election, even though there could be some drama as the Franken campaign is seeking to block the certification to force the counting of hundreds of rejected of absentee ballots.

In another unexpected twist, the certified margin is now expected to be a lead of 215 votes for Norm Coleman - up from the 206 vote margin we had been stuck at for the past week. A mandatory audit of 200 precincts netted nine extra votes for the Republican Senator, giving him a slightly larger cushion. (This is also a warning to Democrats that, despite the emerging conventional wisdom, a recount is not guaranteed to boost their candidate.)

The recount will start tomorrow - though some counties will not launch the process before Thursday or Friday. Updated tallies are expected to be posted daily, but remember that the biggest changes are unlikely to happen until December 16th, when the Minnesota canvassing board convenes to review challenged ballots.