The United State Senate is down to 99 members today, as Barack Obama is resigning from his Senate seat, guaranteeing that he will not participate in Congress’s upcoming lame-duck session and making it more difficult for Democrats to thus build the cloture majorities they will need until January 5th. Illinois Governor Blagojevich has already indicated that he will not appoint Obama’s successor until Christmas - so we will have to wait a while.
Thankfully, some politicians are already making noise about potential runs in the 2009 and 2010 races - allowing us to indulge for the first time in what will be a common game of the next few months: recruitment rumors.
Nevada: Democrats did their best to contest Mitch McConnell’s seat this year - and Republicans are sure to return the favor by making Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid a top target. The GOP’s most obvious candidate was Rep. Ron Porter of NV-03, but Reid shrewdly ensured that Democrats fielded a top challenge against him. On November 4th, Porter lost his re-election race to Democrat Dona Titus, all but eliminating his Senate prospects.
This certainly does not mean that Reid is out of the woods, however, as at least one other GOPer is waiting in the wings: Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, who has been elected to statewide office numerous time since he was also state treasurer for eight years. In fact, Krolicki already addressed his potential candidacy this week: he admitted that he was in the process of deciding whether to give the race a go and that he should come to a decision by “early next year.”
That Krolicki is thinking of launching his campaign so early in the cycle is no surprise: Unseating a powerhouse like Reid requires extensive planning and fundraising, and it is difficult to construct a last-minute operation to counter Reid’s machine. That was ultimately Bruce Lunsford’s downfall in Kentucky this year.
North Carolina: After Elizabeth Dole 9% defeat this year, Republican Senator Richard Burr has a giant target on his back - and Democrats have enough of a bench to ensure somewhat of a competitive challenge. (As you might remember, however, it was very difficult for the DSCC to find a Democrat willing to take on Dole.) We will surely have the time to talk about many of these Democrats in the months ahead, but for now the only one who is making news is Rep. Heath Shuler, who is keeping the door open to a Senate run.
A former NFL quarterback, Shuler was elected in 2006 in a Republican district. He has a very conservative profile - certainly more conservative than Democrats have to aim for to win a statewide race in the Tar Heel state (especially after their triumph last week). Potential strongpoints are his name recognition and his ability to win over Republican voters; a potential drawback is his relative inexperience, which might be more of a problem for a Democrat in 2010 than it was this year, when the GOP brand was toxic. Another problem for Democrats would be that they would have to defend a very vulnerable open seat at the House level.
Virginia: Former DNC chairman and ultimate Clintonite Terry McAuliffe is picking up the pace of his deliberations, and time is indeed pressing: Virginia’s gubernatorial election will be held in the fall of 2009, and the race is expected to heat up as soon as the new year starts. McAuliffe announced last week that he was giving this contest a serious look, and that he would travel across the state in the week’s ahead in a “listening tour” before announcing his plans on January 7th.
It would be quite a surprise for McAuliffe not to run, as he has been laying the groundwork of a statewide candidacy for months now. His critics are already charging that McAuliffe is nothing but an ambitious carpetbagger. “Given Mr. McAuliffe’s previous ambitions to run for governor of Florida, he needs to explain to the people of Virginia if he’s doing this for the right reasons,” said the spokesperson of Delegate Brian Moran, a Democrat who is already running. Another top candidate is state Senator Deeds who lost an extremely close 2005 Attorney General election after weeks of recount.
What makes McAuliffe a potentially powerful campaign is his fundraising machine. He is extremely well-connected and is likely to dramatically outraise Moran and Deeds in what could be enough to propel him to a primary win. Republican Attorney General McDonnell, meanwhile, is all but certain to be the GOP’s standard bearer.
I think the Dems would willingly trade Heath Shuler’s house seat for a Senate seat. Democrats in NC are much more likely to run now they know they could win - there will be financial support and Burr has a low profile and barely won last time.
I think Dems will likely want Shuler to stay put in that House seat unless they are 100% sure that he will beat Burr.
I was reading the post-election posts on BlueNC.com, and from what I remember, for the Burr race, the commenters seemed to be hoping for Attorney General Roy Cooper to throw his hat in the ring. He’s apparently universally popular.
I know nothing about Roy Cooper, but surely North Carolina Democrats can do better than someone as far to the right as Heath Shuler.
Ray Cooper easily won re-election and the NC democratic bench is fairly deep since they have lots of people who have won state wide office - Governors, Lt Gov’s, SoS, AG etc.
What about Mike Easley? He seems to me to be a shoo-in for the race against Burr.
Tom,
Easley refused to run against Dole and repeatedly said he did not want to serve in the Senate. That seemed a genuine enough that he shouldn’t be considered a likely candidate in 2010. But yes, he certainly would be a very strong challenger.