Some Republicans were holding out hope that late-counted ballots would push Saxby Chambliss above the 50% threshold, but Georgia’s Secretary of State certified the results today, confirming that the incumbent Senator barely missing the mark with 49.8% of the vote and officially throwing the election into a December 2nd runoff!
Welcoming us in this overtime period was the first runoff poll, a Research 2000 survey that has Chambliss holding a narrow 49% to 46% lead. African-Americans make up 27% of respondents (they made up more than 30% of last week’s voters) and Democratic nominee Jim Martin will have to increase his support among white voters to clinch a majority.
That said, the Georgia runoff will remain unpredictable to the end, and the most relevant factors will be enthusiasm and turnout. There will be a large drop in the number of voters who went to the polls last week and those who will cast a ballot on December 2nd. This will make it extremely difficult for pollsters to figure out what screen they should apply: Will we see a repeat of the spring’s special elections in which Democrats scored three improbable pick-ups because of a huge enthusiasm gap? Or will it be the Democratic base that will feel like its job is done while Republicans turn out in larger numbers out of anger over last week’s results? We can be sure that African-Americans will not make as large a share of the electorate as they did through early voting and in early November - but how much of a drop-off will there be?
We will not know the answer to these questions until results come in on December 2nd, and the most telling indicators that the polls will supply until then are trendlines. How will Chambliss’s and Martin’s numbers evolve within a pollster’s likely voter screen? If the next Research 2000 poll shows Chambliss pulling ahead, for instance, we might conclude that the GOP’s attempts to portray this race as a necessary check on Obama’s powers is succeeding. For now, what is striking is that the numbers are essentially the same as last week’s results.
That the outcome of this race is so largely dependent on both campaigns’ keeping their base energized makes it that much more surprising that Republicans are outworking Democrats (as I already noted yesterday). John McCain is set to stump with Chambliss tomorrow, Palin should come soon, and Mike Huckabee is scheduled for Sunday - all figures that should draw extensive local coverage and excite the conservative base.
However, it looks like the DSCC is finally ready to engage as they are launching an ad on Georgia airwaves today.The spot attacks Chambliss for saying no to the middle-class and heralds Martin as the “change we need” - a continuation of the argument they used last week:
[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuFd--osc_g"]
The initial buy is estimated at $100,000, a modest sum that will not go very far against a well-funded Chambliss and a GOP that looks determined to fight like there’s no tomorrow. The DSCC is also trying to energize Democratic activists - not only in Georgia but across the country, in the hopes that they will contribute to the Martin campaign - by reviving memories of Chambliss’s 2002 ads against then-Senator Max Cleland. The DSCC has released a web ad revisiting the comments McCain made against Chambliss at the time to coincide with McCain’s visit to the Peach State.
Its obvious why Democrats are not as enthused about this race as Democrats: they just had a sweeping victory in the Presidential race and less so, but still impressive victories in the House and Senate. Getting to 60 votes has always been tough, and even with just 57 seats the Democrats are in a very strong position. On the other hand, the GOP faces powerlessness if they lose in Georgia, which is why they are going all out. And of course, Obama is unlikely to invest political capital for Jim Martin in a race that leans GOP and in which a loss could deflate him even before he is inagurated.