Campaign Diaries

In a dramatic day that turned the Alaska Senate race on its head, 60,000 ballots were tallied and Mark Begich came from behind to surge into an improbable 814 vote lead, inching Democrats closer to their 7th Senate pick-up!

When the day started, the Democratic nominee trailed by more than 3,000 votes with more than 90,000 ballots left to be counted. The state’s Division of Elections (which has transformed Alaska’s ballot counting into a farce for the second time in just a few months) deigned to finally turn its attention to those ballots - and with results coming in from across the state, Begich performed strongly enough among absentee and early voters to more than erase Stevens’s advantage.

The race is far from over, however. About 35,000 ballots remain to be counted, certainly more than enough for Stevens’s to make up his deficit. The remaining ballots will not start being counted until Friday, and the counting might extend all the way to the 19th (see my calendar of upcoming events).

Yet, Mark Begich should now be considered slightly favored. For one, Begich gained throughout the day, underscoring that many of his voters chose to cast an absentee or early ballot; second, all the districts that decided to wait a few more days to count their remaining votes are rural districts that Begich handily won in the original count. In other words, Stevens’s strongholds have mostly reported and it is difficult to see how the incumbent Senator could reverse today’s trend.

Today’s events are a huge - though perhaps temporary - relief for Democrats, who were left shell-shocked on Election Day by Stevens’s lead in what they considered to be a relatively safe pick-up. (I had left the state rated lean take-over rather than likely take-over because of Stevens’s stature in the state.) Even if Stevens was kicked out from the Senate, Republicans would have been likely to keep the seat in a special election given how reliably conservative a state Alaska has proven itself to be.

Begich’s comeback might also be a relief for Senate Republicans, who were not looking forward to having to take disciplinary actions against the longest-serving member of their party. And if Stevens fails to pull ahead when the remaining ballots are counted, it could mean a closed door to Sarah Palin’s ambitions, as rumors had it that the GOP’s former vice-presidential nominee is considering running for Senate if a special election has to be called.

Unfortunately for Democrats, Begich was not able to pull Ethan Berkowitz along with him. Berkowitz was clearly favored to defeat Republican Rep. Don Young heading into Election Day, but the embattled incumbent pulled what is perhaps the biggest upset of the 2008 cycle and is looking to hold on to his lead as he is currently ahead by more than 15,000. That means that it is now practically impossible for Berkowitz to come out on top and that AK-AL will likely be called soon in the GOP’s favor. [Update: As expected, the AP has called AK-AL for Young.]

In other counting/recounting news from around the country:

• CA-04: Republican nominee Tom McClintock has slightly expanded his lead over the past two days as counties continue to count the tens of thousands of absentee ballots that are left to be counted. There are still enough votes for Charlie Brown to come from behind but there is no evidence for now that absentee ballots are likely to favor him. We should expect more updates in the days ahead.

• OH-15: Both candidates are in full campaigning mode as they seek to contact the hundreds of voters who cast a provisional or flawed absentee ballot and now have to verify their identity or provide additional information. The margin between Stivers and Kilroy has held at 146 votes for most of the past week, but tens of thousands of provisional ballots remain to be counted - and Democrats are confident that Kilroy will pick up the most votes. These ballots will start being tallied on Saturday, but we should not expect to see any result before Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, there is nothing to expect from Minnesota’s Senate and VA-05 until the votes are certified and recounts are launched.