Campaign Diaries

Where have all the Democrats gone? Georgia Senate runoff was launched more than a week ago, and Republicans are proving to be surprisingly more committed - quite a reversal from this cycle’s usual pattern of Democratic aggression.

Not only is John McCain set to campaign for Saxby Chambliss John McCain prepares to stump for Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss, but the NRSC is first out of the gates with an ad blasting former state Senator Jim Martin. There is nothing surprising about the ad’s message, which recycles an argument the GOP turned to at the end of October - warning against undivided Democratic control:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPOK02wnkfs']

“With unchecked power hanging in the balance,” the announcer says, “Georgia cannot afford another liberal.” This warning is sure to be more powerful than it was in the run-up to November 4th, since voters now know that Barack Obama has won the White House and that Democrats expanded their majority in both chambers of Congress. Republicans are betting that voters will feel that the GOP has been punished enough and that they will move on from their anger towards President Bush now that Obama is attracting so much attention.

What is interesting about the NRSC’s ad, however, is that they do not use Obama’s image when referring to “unchecked power.” Instead, the spot only features congressional Democrats - Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi. On the one hand, this is rather puzzling since Obama’s election is what makes the GOP’s warning relevant; on the other hand, Chambliss’s best hope of survival is for a significant drop in African-American turnout, and nationalizing the election could ensure that black voters show up at the polls on December 2nd.

Just as fascinating are Jim Martin’s efforts to tie himself to Obama, as he has made his promise to work with the president-elect rather than fight him a centerpiece of his runoff campaign. Remember that this is Georgia we are talking about, a state whose 2004 open seat Democrats made no effort to contest and a state in which a Democrat would normally be expected to run away from his national party. Martin’s strategy is thus further evidence that the runoff will be determined by whichever party turns out its base - and what better way for Martin to motivate Democratic voters than to remind them of their November 4th victory?

In Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, meanwhile, the December 6th general election is heating up. Democratic nominee Paul Carmouche released an internal poll two days ago showing him in the lead 45% to 35%, a sure sign that Democrats have a chance to score yet another pick-up in this conservative district. But the NRCC has now jumped in the race, following the DCCC’s lead (I already blogged about the DCCC’s ad against John Fleming here).

The NRCC’s spot seeks to turn Carmouche’s background as a district attorney against him by using the case of John Pillinsky, a detainee that was released early before committing more crimes as evidence that Carmouche is “soft on crime” because he “failed to prosecute” Pillinsky:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxFWaaHRJHU"]

This is the sort of ad that has the potential to be brutally effective (as it was against Michael Dukakis) or of backfiring (Gordon Smith’s rape ads did him no good). The fact that Carmouche does have some direct connection to the Pillinsky case (unlike, say, Jeff Merkley and the convicted rapist of Smith’s ads) certainly increases the ad’s effectiveness, and we will see whether Carmouche or the DCCC feel that the ad is threatening enough to be worth responding to.