Comments on: The battle for the GOP’s leadership

By: Bill Nowling

Bill Nowling — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 23:29:27 +0000

Yeah, there certainly is going to be a lot to blog about in the coming nine weeks.

I work for Saul Anuzis, but I like to jump into the chatter when I can. You can find out more about Saul on here: http://www.anuzisforchair.com.

By: Guy

Guy — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 13:07:21 +0000

I don`t know who would be a newer star than Jindal - they would have to be in their early 30’s. An incumbent President is hard to beat and Obama will have a great campaign staff - they will continue registering voters during these 4 years. Lets see how the mid-terms go, if the Dems do well and Obama is doing OK then I expect Jindal etc to wait it out a cycle.

By: Chris

Chris — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:41:49 +0000

I still think that the younger members of the GOP like Jindal, Pawlenty, or Cantor who want to president some day should take a serious look at 2012. Waiting runs the risk of being overshadowed by newer stars, and even running for the nomination and losing would give them increased national profiles to launch future campaigns. 2012 is long way off though and there’s plenty fo time for things to change.

By: Guy

Guy — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:26:31 +0000

Chris - I know that timing is everything. Remember Jindal will be 41 in 2012 so he has plenty of time to wait out and let Palin, Romney or Huckabee get the nomination and lose. Jindal can then also build up an extensive amount of executive experience which makes him powerful in 2016 when voters tire of the Democratic party.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 22:05:17 +0000

While I agree with Guy that the GOP probably won’t moderate itself until 2016, I don’t know if it would be a good idea for “rising stars” like Jindal to sit out 2012. Running for President is always a gamble and can pay off for politicians who take the risk. In ‘92 a lot of prominent democrats like Mario Cuomo and Dick Gephardt sat out the presidential election because Bush’s huge approval rating after the gulf war made him look unbeatable. This let Clinton beat back a field of lesser knowns and go to the White House.

By: Tom B

Tom B — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 20:43:22 +0000

You put your finger on what I think is a fair description of the GOP’s current status within the country: it has become the Party of rural America. Thanks to Rove’s strategy of playing to the base at any cost, the GOP has lost its standing among urban and suburban voters. When questioned in exit polls, these voters sided with Obama. But the ones who were not questioned, like those in the NYTimes articles from Vernon, AL and from states like Oklahoma and Arkansas, turned out in huge numbers to support McCain. They could not bring themselves to vote for a black man, and whether the GOP likes it or not, they are now the new face of the Republican Party.

So when Jonah Goldberg claims that Bush’s “liberal” presidency and not the conservative movement is responsible for the GOP’s demise, he has his head in the sand. The GOP lost and will contiue to lose because it has become the party of rural, white America, living in homoegenous towns among like-minded voters. The GOP will never recover its standing in the polls by speaking only to a sub-group of voters. It will have to address the ones who left the Party, who cast a vote for Obama, and who have no desire to be a part of the far-right, Sarah Palinesque party that speaks only to be heard but, in the end, has absolutely nothing to say.

By: Guy

Guy — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 20:40:43 +0000

I agree with Mike that the GOP will go rightwards and nomination someone like that for 2012. They will then learn their lesson and moderate (somewhat) by 2016. An incumbent President usually gets re-elected and the economy should be in recovery by 2012 so I expect Obama would win anyway so if I were Palin (or Jindal etc) I would sit out 2012.

By: stone621

stone621 — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 20:29:59 +0000

They will go farther right because that will be their natural inclination. None of these mentioned people will be able to fill the void. People have lost trust in this brand of Repubicans.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:43:04 +0000

I think it may be too late for Palin’s image with the general public. Much like Dan Quayle or John Edwards (haircut) once certain things are lodged into peoples minds they can be very hard to shake off. Palin is still popular with the base but so is Hickabee and Jindal who are also social conservatives.

The GOP has in the past two decades been an uneasy marriage of social and economic conservatives which worked when they had victories. A center left or centrist Democratic party will be able to get economic conservatives who are repelled by the extreme nature of social conservatives and the issues they push. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as it will be crucial to the long term survival of a Republican party and their next nominee.

Also the GOP will go to the right - Labour in 1979 and the Conservatives in 1997 in the UK went to thier base following their defeats (first to Thatcher and then to Blair) and in the subsequent election lost in a landlside. Parties have to test the hypothesis that they lost because they were not extreme enough at least once then they see sense. So Obama, unles she screws up, should win in 2012 fairly easily and then 2016 will be the next contested election.