Campaign Diaries

Two House races were called last night: one became the Democrats’ 24th House pick-up - bringing their net gain to 20 - while the other was a crucial GOP save.

In MD-01, Democratic nominee Frank Kratovil had a healthy lead by Wednesday morning, but thousands of absentee ballots forced caution. But Kratovil increased his edge as absentees were counted, and the AP called the race for the county prosecutor. While the result is not unexpected given what we have known over the past few months, it represents a major upset that would have been nearly unthinkable at the beginning of 2008.

Republican nominee Andy Harris defeated incumbent Rep. Gilchrest in the February primary, and that contest left deep wounds within the party - leading Gilchrest to endorse Kratovil. While Harris got some help from the Club from Growth (more than $400,000 in the general election period), the NRCC was unable to budget funds for the district while the DCCC poured in almost $2 million! Kratovil’s narrow victory is directly related to this discrepancy.

Kratovil thus joins the ranks of newly elected Democrats that won their seat in a heavily conservative district (Bush received 62% of the vote in MD-01 in 2004). Walt Minnick (ID-01), Betsy Markey (CO-04) and Bobby Bright (AL-02) were also elected in staunchly Republican districts, though three Democratic incumbents who were in a similar position lost on Tuesday night (Reps. Boyda, Cazayoux, Lampson). It goes without saying that all of these newly-elected Democrats will be at the top of the Republicans’ 2010 target list - especially those, like Minnick and perhaps Markey, whose victory is as much due to their opponent’s unpopularity as to their own appeal.

Kratovil’s election also confirms that the 2008 cycle was disastrous for the conservative Club for Growth. Their main Republican target - Alaska Rep. Don Young - beat their candidate in the Republican primary and now appears to be heading back to Congress. Andy Harris, whose victory against Gilchrest they bankrolled, just lost the general election in a heavily Republican district. In MI-07, Rep. Walberg (who had defeated an incumbent Republican in 2006 thanks to the Club’s support and for whom the Club spent a lot of money over the past month) lost his seat. Defeated Rep. Bill Sali of Idaho was also a major Club endorsee.

On the other hand, Democrats got disappointing news in WA-08, where Rep. Dave Reichert beat Democratic nominee Darcy Burner for the second cycle in a row. The margin looks to be just as close as it was two years ago (about 3%). Along with Rep. Kirk of Illinois, Reichert is thus one of the only Republican incumbents left in Dem-trending territory - and they both beat back spiritied challenges from opponents they had already faced in 2006.

Both parties had heavily invested in this district, as it was one of the only races in which the NRCC had spent more than $1 million. Indeed, this is the type of district that is the most dangerous for Republicans to lose: While places like MD-01 and ID-01 are conservative enough that Republicans will always be able to mount a spirited challenge, seats like WA-08 are likely to be lost for good once they fall out of the GOP’s hands. Beating a Democratic incumbent in a district that went overwhelmingly for Obama is far more difficult than beating one in red Alabama.

Reichert’s victory is yet another sign that the Democratic wave was not as strong as many expected, and that it left many Republicans incumbents standing - particularly those, like Reichert and Kirk, who had seen the threat coming and were able to rely on a strong personal brand. (Shays was able to survive thanks to that in 2006, but not this year). The loss of WA-08 is also disappointing to progressives as Darcy Burner had become somewhat of a netroots heroine and had a liberal profile. (Progressives did get some strong victories this cycle, however, particularly Jeff Merkley’s victory in Oregon and Tom Perriello’s apparent victory in VA-05.)

That leaves us with a number of uncalled districts, with CA-04 and OH-15 looking like the most unpredictable at the moment. In Senate races, we should not wait for any dramatic news from either Alaska and Minnesota until the ballots are certified in mid-to-late November. Until then, Coleman’s advantage keeps dwindling and now stands at 221 votes. (It was more than 700 on Wednesday morning.)