Comments on: The morning after http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 11 Mar 2010 09:45:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4801 Anonymous Thu, 06 Nov 2008 02:38:46 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4801 Serves the Republicans right. This will be my last post. I'm glad it's all over. Take care all. Serves the Republicans right. This will be my last post. I’m glad it’s all over. Take care all.

]]> By: Jim http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4800 Jim Thu, 06 Nov 2008 01:55:25 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4800 I just want to say thank you, I have checked your blog every morning for over a year. Your reasoned, fact based reporting was a welcome alternative to the hyper MSM and biased political blogs. I just want to say thank you, I have checked your blog every morning for over a year. Your reasoned, fact based reporting was a welcome alternative to the hyper MSM and biased political blogs.

]]> By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4809 Guy Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:07:59 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4809 Jarret - I agree that the GOP has a problem if they stay associated with small town, white America. However I did expect a larger number of votes cast when you think that a) the number of true battleground states was much greater this cycle and b) millions of newly registered voters. Jarret - I agree that the GOP has a problem if they stay associated with small town, white America. However I did expect a larger number of votes cast when you think that a) the number of true battleground states was much greater this cycle and b) millions of newly registered voters.

]]> By: nimh http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4808 nimh Wed, 05 Nov 2008 21:47:28 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4808 Just wanted to say thank you for maintaining this specialist blog in such a dedicated and comprehensive fashion. It has really been an unmissable stop these past few months, and no two days went by without a visit here. So thank you! Just wanted to say thank you for maintaining this specialist blog in such a dedicated and comprehensive fashion. It has really been an unmissable stop these past few months, and no two days went by without a visit here. So thank you!

]]> By: Jarret http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4807 Jarret Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:41:33 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4807 I thought the turnout was impressive for this simple fact: this is still a deeply partisan country, though Obama's victory has greatly expanded the possibility for moderate progressive reform. One thing to note: the Republican Party faces the real possibility of becoming merely the party of the white South; not a good place to be in the 21st century. If the Republicans don't find a way to expand their numbers beyond the "Small Town, White, Evangelical" demographic they've been peddling since Reagan until it finally ran its course last night, they will not be a national party for the future. I thought the turnout was impressive for this simple fact: this is still a deeply partisan country, though Obama’s victory has greatly expanded the possibility for moderate progressive reform. One thing to note: the Republican Party faces the real possibility of becoming merely the party of the white South; not a good place to be in the 21st century. If the Republicans don’t find a way to expand their numbers beyond the “Small Town, White, Evangelical” demographic they’ve been peddling since Reagan until it finally ran its course last night, they will not be a national party for the future.

]]> By: Mike http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4806 Mike Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:13:34 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4806 A good victory for Obama although he didn`t get that many more votes than Bush got in 2004. What happened to turnout? Especially with all the millions of nearly registered voters. A good victory for Obama although he didn`t get that many more votes than Bush got in 2004. What happened to turnout? Especially with all the millions of nearly registered voters.

]]> By: Taniel http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4805 Taniel Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:23:04 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4805 Indeed fritz and Jaxx, a Stevens victory (and it is by no means guaranteed) would mean a lot of chaos over the next few months. Indeed fritz and Jaxx, a Stevens victory (and it is by no means guaranteed) would mean a lot of chaos over the next few months.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4804 Jaxx Raxor Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:16:34 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4804 The fact that the Democrats cannot defeat a convicted felon in Alaska shows both how immensely popular Stevens is and how Sarah Palin kept Alaska red. It is very possible that without Palin as the VP nominee, Don Young would have lost, or at least would not have won an upset decisive victory. I would say that if Stevens is truly elected (and the race is close enough that Begich could pull ahead as the election day votes and then the absentee votes come in) then it is almost assured that the Senate would expel Stevens, the latest by February, which is when Steven's appeal is being heard. I would be suprised if Palin entered the special election race, as for one it probably wouldn't be necessary (Lt. Gov Parnell would probably enter, and easily win the special Senate election) and that as a Senator, you have a lot less control than as governor, especially as part of the minority. The only benefit Palin would have in the Senate would be to possibly get on the Foreign Relations Committee and get some foreign policy experience, but it would be a longshot. Also, while Palin is definitly a contender, she is not the odd ons favorite to the GOP nominee in 2012 at this time. Being a VP nominee of the losing ticket hasn't bolded well for future presidential runs for former VP nominees for over 50 years. I'd say that the GOP primaries in 2012 would be just as, if not much more, than the ones in 2008, with Palin, Rommney, Huckabee, and maybe a few other guys like Pawlenty (popular in a blue state) Jindal (young, minority, reformist) Barbor (got credit for Hurricane Katrina releaf) etc, and maybe some dark horses that I can't just think of. One more thing: John Porter's loss in his Nevada's 3rd CD is devasting to thier chances against Harry Reid in 2010. Porter was considered to be both the strongest of likely candidates against Reid, but with his loss Nevada Republicans don't really have anyone to try to repeat their gratitfying win against Daschle in South Dakota, epsecially with GOP Gov Gibbons being so unpopular throughout his entire term. And of course, the Illnois Governor Blagojevich is the most unpopolar governor in the nation right now, so who he appoints to replace Barack Obama will be interesting to see how hard it will be for Democrats to retain Obama's seat in 2010. The fact that the Democrats cannot defeat a convicted felon in Alaska shows both how immensely popular Stevens is and how Sarah Palin kept Alaska red. It is very possible that without Palin as the VP nominee, Don Young would have lost, or at least would not have won an upset decisive victory.

I would say that if Stevens is truly elected (and the race is close enough that Begich could pull ahead as the election day votes and then the absentee votes come in) then it is almost assured that the Senate would expel Stevens, the latest by February, which is when Steven’s appeal is being heard. I would be suprised if Palin entered the special election race, as for one it probably wouldn’t be necessary (Lt. Gov Parnell would probably enter, and easily win the special Senate election) and that as a Senator, you have a lot less control than as governor, especially as part of the minority. The only benefit Palin would have in the Senate would be to possibly get on the Foreign Relations Committee and get some foreign policy experience, but it would be a longshot. Also, while Palin is definitly a contender, she is not the odd ons favorite to the GOP nominee in 2012 at this time. Being a VP nominee of the losing ticket hasn’t bolded well for future presidential runs for former VP nominees for over 50 years. I’d say that the GOP primaries in 2012 would be just as, if not much more, than the ones in 2008, with Palin, Rommney, Huckabee, and maybe a few other guys like Pawlenty (popular in a blue state) Jindal (young, minority, reformist) Barbor (got credit for Hurricane Katrina releaf) etc, and maybe some dark horses that I can’t just think of.

One more thing: John Porter’s loss in his Nevada’s 3rd CD is devasting to thier chances against Harry Reid in 2010. Porter was considered to be both the strongest of likely candidates against Reid, but with his loss Nevada Republicans don’t really have anyone to try to repeat their gratitfying win against Daschle in South Dakota, epsecially with GOP Gov Gibbons being so unpopular throughout his entire term.

And of course, the Illnois Governor Blagojevich is the most unpopolar governor in the nation right now, so who he appoints to replace Barack Obama will be interesting to see how hard it will be for Democrats to retain Obama’s seat in 2010.

]]> By: fritz http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4803 fritz Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:44:30 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4803 Great job last night and over the past year. I hope you continue this blog to keep us informed on political races to come. The Dems still have a chance to win 22-27 seats in the House and 7- 8 Senate seats after recounts are completed. In other year a pick-up of this many House seats would be considered an huge win especially after picking up about 30 seats in 2006. As to the Senate I think Obama will be happy with the situation as it turned out. He is likely to govern from the center and he will have no trouble in getting support from the remaining moderate Republicans on a per issue basis. The Ted Stevens win; if it happens; is very interesting. He is likely to be kicked out of the Senate soon and will be replaced by someone chosen by Sarah Palin; maybe even Sarah Palin herself. I wonder if the Alaska voters, knowing this, voted for Stevens to keep the Senate seat in Republican control? Stratigic voting at its finest. The demographic that must worry the Republicians most is the 2-1 Hispanic vote for Obama. This could keep the Democrates in power for many many years. One task that Obama will undertake soon after taking office, mayby as early as this spring and that has not been discussed much, is that he will likely be naming one or more new Supreme Court Judges. This will be a very good indicator of how far to the left his administration will be. Great job last night and over the past year. I hope you continue this blog to keep us informed on political races to come.
The Dems still have a chance to win 22-27 seats in the House and 7- 8 Senate seats after recounts are completed.
In other year a pick-up of this many House seats would be considered an huge win especially after picking up about 30 seats in 2006.
As to the Senate I think Obama will be happy with the situation as it turned out. He is likely to govern from the center and he will have no trouble in getting support from the remaining moderate Republicans on a per issue basis.
The Ted Stevens win; if it happens; is very interesting. He is likely to be kicked out of the Senate soon and will be replaced by someone chosen by Sarah Palin; maybe even Sarah Palin herself. I wonder if the Alaska voters, knowing this, voted for Stevens to keep the Senate seat in Republican control? Stratigic voting at its finest.
The demographic that must worry the Republicians most is the 2-1 Hispanic vote for Obama. This could keep the Democrates in power for many many years.
One task that Obama will undertake soon after taking office, mayby as early as this spring and that has not been discussed much, is that he will likely be naming one or more new Supreme Court Judges. This will be a very good indicator of how far to the left his administration will be.

]]> By: Mike http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/05/the-morning-after/comment-page-1/#comment-4802 Mike Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:08:42 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=4311#comment-4802 What is most striking is that some states swung by15-20% compared to 2004 and others much smaller. The overall swing was 9% - A Bush 3% win turned into an Obama 6% win. PA was amazing - polls had shown double digit leads, it "tightened" to 7% and McCain people said things were going well. End result McCain loses by double digits. Same in Iowa where McCain thought he was getting close (hence all the visit) and lost by 9-10%. However one thing that has not really been mentioned is that overall turnout was not that high - yes in NC, VA, Indiana it was high. But Obama got slightly more vote than Bush and if you look at say Oregon the number of votes cast fell by 20+% compared to 2004. Just check out turnout in California, Oregon and several other states - maybe turnout was down because they were safe states. What is most striking is that some states swung by15-20% compared to 2004 and others much smaller. The overall swing was 9% - A Bush 3% win turned into an Obama 6% win.
PA was amazing - polls had shown double digit leads, it “tightened” to 7% and McCain people said things were going well. End result McCain loses by double digits. Same in Iowa where McCain thought he was getting close (hence all the visit) and lost by 9-10%.

However one thing that has not really been mentioned is that overall turnout was not that high - yes in NC, VA, Indiana it was high. But Obama got slightly more vote than Bush and if you look at say Oregon the number of votes cast fell by 20+% compared to 2004. Just check out turnout in California, Oregon and several other states - maybe turnout was down because they were safe states.

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