Comments on: Final guidelines, and a call for predictions

By: KRL

KRL — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:16:54 +0000

Obama- 353

McCain- 185

Obama flips (in order of likeliness) - CO, VA, FL, NV, OH & NC. (barely)

McCain holds - IN, GA, MT, & MO.

Historic GOTV Surpasses 1960 Turnout w/ over 64% of RV casting ballots.

PV- 52.8% Obama- 44.5% McCain

Dems gain 7 Senate Seats

Dems gain 28 House Seats

***********************************

Nice site Daniel- appreciate all the updates and info throughout the election season. C. D’s - always sure to be on target w/ some great insight.

By: Guy

Guy — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 18:40:38 +0000

I predict the following :

Obama wins with 311 EV’s - he loses Ohio and Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana
Obama wins 52 to 47% in the popular vote
McCain wins none of the Kerry states
Elizabeth Dole deservedly loses her Senate seat in North Carolina.
Democrats lose no senate seats and pick up 7 seats (losing either OR or MN).
Democrats win the Governorships in both Washington and North Carolina (very close in NC with Bev Purdue barely winning).

Of course if turnout of certain groups is really high then all bets are off and Obama could easily win IN, NC and GA, whilst the Dems could pick up more senate seats but I just don`t feel like a landslide (>350EV’s) is probable (I hope I am wrong though)

By: drg3750

drg3750 — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:39:18 +0000

I think that the networks will call the election before 9 PM eastern. An Obama landslide, of historic proportions. Attention will focus on state races. Many republican incumbents will go down, most notably Dole in NC and McConnell in KY. Prop 8 will be defeated!

By: gerard

gerard — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:54:51 +0000

Obama gets Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Missouri, Indiana, and possible upset in Georgia. Dems keep governorships in NC and WA. Senate, 8 pickups. There is always a surprise or two here. In 1984, in KY, Senator Walter “Dee” Huddleston was on track for an easy reelection, but was ousted by Mitch McConnell. If the Dems were doing better in running KY, I’d feel better about this contest, but I’ll predict Lunsford in a 2% race, as the upset of the night. Georgia will definitely go to a runoff. Idaho will be a bit closer than expected.

By: felipe

felipe — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:31:59 +0000

forgot surprises!

Low Turnout: Obama wins OH
High turnout: Obama wins GA, AZ + NE 1st

Paradise escenario: Obama wins MT, ND, GA, AZ, AR, SC
Nightmare: Obama wins CO, NV, losses PA & VA.

By: felipe

felipe — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:28:13 +0000

Low turnout
Obama 311 - 227 McCain
Senate Dem +7

High turnout
Obama 406 - 132 McCain
Senate Dem + 9 + GA runoff

Taniel, what are you doing w/t/website after the campaign closes? thanks for a great job! and you should try to go for a bigger media/paper/tv so more people can learn from your clear analysis!

By: Mark R.

Mark R. — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 14:18:02 +0000

Obama 375
McCain 163

Margin: +212

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 14:10:05 +0000

Senate Dem +8
House Dem +20
President Obama 302 McCain 236
Surprise: McCain wins Virginia

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 13:12:55 +0000

My predictions:
1. Senate: Dems - 8+
2. Gov race: Dems will keep Wash. and NC
3. House: Dems - 31+
4. Obama: gets NC, Indiana, Georgia, FL and possibly Ohio
It is much harder for me to predict what McCain might get from among the toss-ups, so I will refrain from making predictions for him.

By: fritz

fritz — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:09:56 +0000

EV’s: Obama 370 - McCain 168
Percentage: Obama 52.5% - McCain 46% - Other 1.5%
Senate: +9
House: +29
Surprise: Obama wins Momtana