Campaign Diaries

NY-26: Who knew this much chaos could erupt in a district three days from Election Day? On the one hand, a juicy scandal is threatening Republican candidate Chris Lee; on the other hand, a legal battle threatens to divide Alice Kryzan’s hold on the Democratic base.

This morning, The Buffalo News broke the story about the circumstances of Chris Lee’s departure from computer product distributor Ingram Micro. Lee was fired after he hacked a company computer to raise customers’ credit limit to be able to sell them more products and heighten his personal gain, putting the company at risk if these customers then failed to pay back.

This happened nearly 20 years ago, but it is surely not the type of news a campaign wants to see dominate the final days of coverage - especially when it is a scandal that can easily be related to the current credit crisis, where loans were given to people who could not afford them.

Meanwhile, state and federal judges keep overruling each other in a high-stakes fight over which name will appear on the Working Families Party line. (In New York, candidates can appear on the ballot multiple times under different parties and then add up the totals.) The party had endorsed Democrat Jon Powers before he unexpectedly lost the nomination to Alice Kryzan, and the only way for Powers to be removed from the WFP line was to die, be nominated for judgeship or move out of the state.

He did the latter earlier this fall, and the WFP immediately moved to place Kryzan’s name on the ballot - but Republicans sued to prevent the move, arguing that Powers’ had to occupy the party’s line. A state judge ruled in the GOP’s favor, only to be overruled by a higher state court, whose ruling was itself reversed today by a federal judge who issued a restraining order against the change and maintained Kryzan’s name on the ballot.

The Democrats have vowed to appeal, but we are now 60 hours from polls opening, we still don’t know what the final ballot will look like. (This presumably only matters for electronic machines at this point, as paper ballots have had to already been printed and absentee ballots have been sent to voters. I believe already-printed ballots have Powers’ name on them.) If Democrats are unable to reverse the ruling, it would significantly hurt Kryzan’s chances as Powers has a following in the district and is sure to cost Kryzan votes.

PA-12: Jack Murtha’s district has become quite a battleground over the last few days of the campaign. Not only did the NRCC dump $400,000 to air an ad attacking Murtha for his controversial comments but Bill and Hillary Clinton are now rushing to Murtha’s rescue. Not only did they record two robocalls on Murtha’s behalf, but Bill will hold a rally with Murtha on Monday to try to rally the Democratic base around the longtime congressman. This is a district in which Hillary crushed Obama in the April 22nd primary, giving the former first couple some clout.

Of course, Bill Clinton will also help Obama while in the Keystone State. This is the type of area McCain needs to do well in to have any hope of winning the state, and Murtha’s troubles could very well cost Obama: Republicans are hoping that racial factors will reduce Obama’s share of the vote, and Murtha’s declaring that the district’s electorate is racist was the surest way to racialize the vote.

Minnesota: It is hard to describe the latest events in the state’s Senate race as last minute chaos since the contest has been chaotic for months now. In no other race have we had this many revelations, scandals, intrigue and important third party candidates (some of which made news by not running).

On Thursday, a Texas businessman’s lawsuit alleging that he was made to make secret payments to Senator Coleman through his wife is making a confusing race even more unpredictable - especially as it was quickly followed by a second lawsuit filed by minority shareholders of the Texas marine company through which a Coleman family friend is being accused of having transferred money to Ms. Coleman’s insurance company.

These two lawsuits threaten to dominate news coverage of the Senate race over the last 3 days of campaigning, a development that could push Coleman voters in the hands of third-party candidate Barkley or break undecideds towards Al Franken. The DSCC is seeking to make the most of the situation by launching an ad that will run in the lead-up to Tuesday’s vote:

On the other hand, last minute revelations have the potential of hurting one’s opponent if they are perceived to be politically driven. Despite the fact that the allegations about the $75,000 payment were not made by Franken’s campaign, Coleman is seeking to create a backlash by alleging that his opponent is smearing him and his wife and calling on Democrats to “stop attacking my family.” In a new ad, Coleman is playing the family man card; with his wife by his side, Coleman says that Franken “crossed the line:”

At the very least, Democrats can feel happy that Coleman is finishing the campaign on the defensive, forced to address allegations rather than deliver a closing argument. This is a reversal from the more usual pattern in this contest in which Franken has had to air explanatory ads to respond to Republican attacks about his past writings and tax history. The fact that Franken is still standing, however, should give Democrats pause as negative campaigning has only boosted Barkley’s prospects.