Comments on: Battleground watch: Race heats up in Arizona, McCain scales back turnout efforts

By: Coco

Coco — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:17:56 +0000

New ARG Polls:

New state polls.

AZ: McCain 50% - Obama 46%
CO: Obama 52% - McCain 45%
MO: Obama 48% - McCain 48%
MT: Obama 46% - McCain49%
NH: Obama 56% - McCain 41%

By: Coco

Coco — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:15:41 +0000

Rasmussen:

New Hampshire: Obama 51 - McCain 44

Georgia: McCain 52 - Obama 47

By: Guy

Guy — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 18:51:33 +0000

Jaxx - some national polls earlier this week did show some “tightening” which could have been real or statistical noise. Look at the tracking polls now - such as Gallup which have gone back to their numbers last week 6-8% lead for Obama (for example Gallup was earlier this week +2% for Obama, now +8%). State polling continues to go well. If the best Mccain can pull is one poll in PA that shows him losing by 4% (worse than Bush did in 2000 and 2004) then he has no hope.

By: Jarret

Jarret — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 18:48:15 +0000

I have a feeling that there will be some red-state surprises on Tuesday, and I think at least one will be totally unexpected, like Georgia.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:31:12 +0000

We will know for sure if Nov 4 will truly be Democratic dominance. McCain has been closing the gap somewhat in natinal polls and a few polls (althrough mostly Mason-Dixon) are showing McCain that he does have some hope, although the fact that so many states are competive and that all of them (with the exception of PA) being Bush states won at least once show how much of a challange McCain has. Yes, we can’t count McCain out and if he can pull out an electoral miracle, then he can. But remember, in 2000 McCain did eventually lose the GOP nomination to Bush’s superior organization and role as the establishment favorite, so banking heavily on a McCain comeback may not be wise.

By: Guy

Guy — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:00:21 +0000

North dakota is cheap so re-starting advertising there is easy. Advertsiing in Arizona picks up on the encouraging polls and forces McCain to play yet more defence and gets part of a newscycle. Certainly pushes back against a “narrowing” narrative.
McCain will be in Arizona end of Monday and Palin will be in Alaska end of Monday so the two Republicans will be in “safe” states for the GOP whereas Obama and Biden can go out and finish in important swing states. This is just a perfect example of the Democratic dominance in this election.