Campaign Diaries

The news that the DNC will tap into a $10 million line of credit to be split equally on House and Senate races means that the DSCC and DCCC has $5 million more than what they had budgeted for the campaign’s final week, allowing them to put even more House races in play and increase their spending against Sens. McConnell and Chambliss.

That makes for that much more excitement in the campaign’s closing week - and given how much more vicious ads have become in recent days, we should expect quite a few fireworks. It is no surprise, of course, that the nastiest of recent attack ads comes from the NRSC’s efforts to discredit Al Franken in Minnesota. This latest spot is a compilation of all of the GOP’s attacks on Franken, strung together in an incredibly hard-hitting sequence. Franken “lashes out at those who disagree,” “humiliates minorities”, “demeans women,” “makes child abuse a joke” and “laughs at the disabled:

The problem for Republicans is that the ad wars in the Minnesota Senate race might very well have exhausted their effectiveness. There are, after all, diminishing returns in political advertisement, and the GOP has been airing the same attacks since the spring. Furthermore, the fact that the Minnesota contest is is a three-way race with Independent Party candidate Barkley means that Coleman and Franken have to win on the strength of their base, making any attack less effective. Finally, the negative tone of campaigning has taken a toll on both of the major party candidates and allowed Barkley to progress; that means that the NRSC’s ads are as likely to get Franken voters to peel away to Barkley as they are to get Coleman voters to vote for a third party in disgust.

Note that the NRSC appears to have launched a broad child abuse offensive against Franken… confirming that Minnesota’s Senate race will go down as the most vicious of this year’s contests. Their latest mailer to Minnesota households features a cartoonish Franken telling children to “come on in…” The mailer has ignited a firestorm in the final week of campaigning, as the state’s Democratic Party has vehemently denounced the mailer and Senator Coleman has had to condemn the tactics used by his national party.

But child molestation-themed attacks apparently extend beyond Minnesota! They are also the focus of a new NRSC ad aimed at Jim Martin in Georgia. The spot starts with footage of a young woman in a bathing suit and proceeds to accuse Martin of not supporting making soliciting children for prostitution a felony. “Liberal extreme,” charges the ad, before listing other allegedly radical position Martin holds - like his refusal to make English the official language:

Given how late the NRSC is starting to air its anti-Martin ads, there isn’t that much time left to discredit him (except if the election goes to a December runoff, of course), which is why the GOP is unloading what looks like its entire oppo file in one ad. I also doubt how much ads featuring footage of seductive women ever move the electorate, as going for racy just makes an ad look ridiculously over the top; witness these stunningly hilarious robocalls in a California House race or the infamous Arcuri ad from 2006.

In New Hampshire, meanwhile, Jeanne Shaheen has released a powerful new ad. Not only is it focused on the economy (though this race has been hardly contested, neither side has gone personal), but it uses Sen. Sununu’s words against him - always the most effective tactic to use in political ads. After an average voters tells the story of his struggles paying for health care, the ad features audio recording of Sununu saying “stop complaining about health care costs” - repeatedly:

This ad is a reminder of how much the financial crisis hurt Republicans. Not only did it close the door on candidates like Sununu who were closing the gap in the first half of September, but it made the issues Democrats would rather talk about (like health care and Social Security) suddenly relevant. An ad like this one would be effective in any environment, but it becomes even more powerful when voters are worried about their subsistence.

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As expected, Democrats are making the most of Ted Stevens’ endorsement by putting other endangered GOP Senators on the defensive over their ties to the convicted Alaskan. Republicans are doing their best to distance themselves from Stevens (McCain called for him to step down this morning, Palin followed his lead after not quite daring to do so yesterday, and McConnell called it a “sad but serious day” and pledged that Stevens will “be held accountable”), but that is not enough for Democrats who want to press their advantage.

Democrats are calling on Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith and Elizabeth Dole to return campaign donations they received from Stevens over the years. This would not represent that significant an amount of money, of course, but the Democrats’ goal is not to deprive their opponent of a few thousand dollars but to push coverage of the Stevens conviction in the local press and tie the incumbents they are facing to the convicted Senator. Stevens was, after all, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, with ties to many of his colleagues.

In a year in which the GOP brand is at an all-time low, Stevens’ conviction further tarnishes the party’s image and could thus damage those incumbents - especially Coleman and Smith - who are in danger mostly because of the political environment.

As for the Alaska Senate race, it now clearly leans Democratic though Stevens is such a towering figure in state politics that an upset cannot be entirely be ruled out. Ivan Moore, an Alaska-based pollster whose surveys we have been looking at carefully for the past few months, is now saying that the race is over - but he awknowledges that he (mistakenly) thought the same after Stevens was indicted. If Stevens somehow wins, it would only be the beginning of his troubles: Would the Senate expell him? Would the Republican leadership dare abandon a Senator that has been part of their caucus for decades?