Campaign Diaries

Alaska: The Ted Stevens trial is getting more complicated by the day - and we should no longer rule out the possibility that the jury deliberations will not be completed by the election, making the Alaska Senate race as unpredictable as any in the country.

Yesterday, the jury hit a roadblock because of a juror who allegedly engaged in “violent” and “unreasonable” behavior. Hours after the Judge Sullivan decided not to expel that juror, another juror sent word that she had to leave Washington, DC to attend her father’s funeral in California, thereby shutting down the jury deliberations for the day. Sullivan and lawyers representing the defense and the prosecution will meet on Sunday night to decide how to proceed.

If the juror returns, the jury’s deliberations are unlikely to resume until Tuesday at the earliest; if she is replaced by one of the alternates, the jury would have to start its discussions from the beginning. In both cases, we are getting awfully close to November 4th. Remember that Ted Stevens asked for a speedy trial precisely because he wanted a verdict by Election Day.

Oregon: For months, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has been airing ads touting his relationship with Democrats like Barack, Obama Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and (Oregon Senator) Ron Hayden. The problem, of course, is that any of these Democrats can easily undermine Smith’s entire argument by taking a strong stance in favor of Merkley - and that is exactly what Obama did today by shooting his very first ad for a down-the-ballot candidate:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-UkAR81gmk"]

Obama’s decision to choose this race to intervene in can probably be attributed to Smith himself invoking him, as well as to Obama’s popularity in Oregon. He demolished Clinton in the state’s primary and has surged to unexpectedly dominant leads against McCain. Furthermore, Oregon’s election is taking place right now (Oregon vote entirely via mail, and ballots have to be returned by November 4th), so Obama’s ad is essentially Merkley’s closing positive argument. A new DSCC ad, meanwhile, is the Democrats’ closing negative argument, and it’s back to the basics as Gordon Smith is linked to George Bush in simple and broad terms.

Hard-hitting ads in North Carolina and Mississippi: Oregon isn’t the only state in which the parties are now unleashing their harshest and most clearly expressed attack lines now that we have entered the final stretch. In North Carolina, a new DSCC spot recycles common charges state voters have been hearing for the past few months (Dole is ranked 93rd in effectiveness, she has voted with Bush 92% of the time) and adds a deadly punch line by invoking the recent report that revealed that Dole had spent less than 35 days over the entirety of 2005 and 2006 in the state she is supposed to represent. The ad calls Dole an ineffective, “absentee Senator:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isoafmiRb-Y"]

In Mississippi, one of the GOP’s main tactics has been to run against Ronnie Musgrove’s gubernatorial record. Musgrove lost his re-election bid in 2003, testifying to the fact that many voters were dissatisfied with him. A new NRSC ad targeted at the coasts hits Musgrove for having ruined the state’s economy as a governor and having “killed jobs” in the Golf Coast, raising unemployment in the region by 42%:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4TCOY1EA50"]

Outside spending: The DSCC and NRSC are facing some tough financial decisions, but outside groups are coming to their rescue. On the right, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been particularly active on behalf of a number of Republican Senate candidates, airing ads lambasting the Democratic agenda - particularly on the issue of union card checks. The group has spent about $3.3 million on behalf of Sen. Sununu in New Hampshire and more than $1 million to help Sens. Dole, Smith, McConnell, Wicker as well as Bob Schaffer. Also budgeted is a $1 million campaign on behalf of Sen. Coleman in Minnesota. The Chamber of Commerce’s total budget for the 2008 cycle is $35 million.

Meanwhile, labor is playing its traditional role in boosting Democratic candidates - starting with SEIU. Not only has the union spent nearly $5 million to organize canvassing since the convention, they are also heavily investing in Senate races. Two new ads have just gone up against Sens. Smith and Sununu, for instance, both devoted to the economy. Against Smith, SEIU is running a $400,000 ad entitled “Hole; against Sununu this $600,000 spot entitled “Register” that links Sununu to Bush and Wall Street.