Campaign Diaries

The clock is running out, and the only good news for McCain today is a IBD/TIPP poll that has him only down 1%. But just like yesterday’s AP poll, that appears to be an outlier as seven other national polls show Obama firmly in command (not to mention that IBD/TIPP has McCain with more than 70% among 18-24 year-old respondents). In fact, Obama leads by double-digits in four of the day’s survey, and McCain remains stuck in the low 40s (39% to 45%) in all eight - including IBD/TIPP.

State polls are even more decisive, and they are breaking in favor of Obama rather than against him. Today’s line-up of surveys has Obama posting some big margins across the country, and what is significant is that these surveys come from different institutes, some of which have not been particularly friendly to the Democrat before (National Journal/All State or Big10, for instance). Obama leads by double-digits in five polls of Pennsylvania, three polls of Minnesota, two polls of Wisconsin, two polls of Ohio and one poll each of Michigan, Iowa and Indiana.

Obama also leads outside of the margin of error in two Florida surveys (something McCain has not done in a single Florida poll for four weeks) and captures a narrow advantage in Montana in the first poll that (finally) includes Ron Paul’s name. He is within striking distance in Georgia, where early voting turnout confirms that he has a shot at making the race very close.

Needless to say, Obama needs to capture very few of the states I just mentioned. If he wins just one of the Big Three (OH, PA and FL), he will be in a very good position to capture the presidency; two would ensure victory; and even an (at this point unlikely) defeat in all three would certainly not be the end of his ambitions: A sweep of Colorado, Virginia and Nevada (or any of these replaced by Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina) could replace the Keystone State. With all of this in mind, let’s go on to today’s full roundup:

• Obama maintains a double-digit lead in the latest NYT/CBS poll. He is ahead 52% to 39% (he led by 14% last week). He leads by 6% among independents. 62% feel “personally connected” to Obama, 47% to McCain; more voters think Obama has the right temperament and personality to be president, and more voters think Obama would handle a crisis well. Palin’s favorability rating remains negative.

• Obama keeps his dominant position in the tracking polls. He gains 2% in Zogby (52% to 40%) and 1% in Rasmussen (52% to 45%). The race stays stable in Hotline (48% to 43%), ABC/Washington Post (54% to 43%) and Research 2000 (51% to 41%). Obama slips 1% in Gallup (51% to 45%) and 3% in IBD/TIPP (where he is only up 1%, 45% to 44%). That puts Obama’s lead in the day’s trackings at: 1%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 10%, 11%, 12%.

• Ohio: Obama leads by double-digits in two new polls, his biggest leads ever in the state. He leads 52% to 38% in a Quinnipiac survey (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 53% to 41% in a Big 10 Battleground poll.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads by double-digits in four new polls. He leads 53% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll (he led by 15% three weeks ago). He leads 53% to 41% in SUSA. (He was ahead by 15% last week and the week before. The sample is more Republican this week.) He leads by 52% to 41% in a Big Ten Battleground poll. He leads 51% to 41% in a National Journal poll. He leads 52% to 42% in Morning Call’s tracking poll.

• Florida: Obama leads outside of the MoE in two new surveys. He is ahead 49% to 44% in a new Quinnipiac poll (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 49% to 42% in a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll. Obama seizes a big lead among independents in the latter, which was taken Monday through Wednesday.

• Indiana: Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Big10 poll. The race was tied in mid-September.

• Minnesota: Obama leads by double-digits in three polls. He leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll (he led by 7% two weeks ago). Obama leads 57% to 38% in a Big10 poll. Obama leads 50% to 40% in a National Journal poll.

• Wisconsin: Obama leads by 13% in two new polls, one from Big10 and one from National Journal.

• Montana: Obama leads 44% to 40% with 4% going to Ron Paul in a Montana University poll.

• Michigan: Obama leads by a stunning 58% to 36% in a Big10 poll.

• Iowa: Obama leads 52% to 39% in a Big10 poll.

• West Virginia: McCain leads 49% to 44% in an Orion Strategies poll. McCain led by 10% a month ago.

• Georgia: McCain leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. McCain led by 9% two weeks ago.

• Maine: Obama leads 56% to 35% in a Critical Insight poll.

• Safe states: Obama leads 56% to 33% in a new PPIC poll of California. McCain leads 54% to 41% in a new Rasmussen poll of Louisiana. Obama leads 61% to 32% in a Big10 poll of Illinois. McCain leads 53% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. McCain leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Texas. Obama leads 54% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Washington. McCain leads 51% to 36% in a University of Arkansas of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

• Proposition 8 is losing 52% to 44% in a PPIC poll. However, the “no” was ahead 55% to 41% five weeks ago.

• Minnesota’s Senate race: Democrat Al Franken narrowly leads in two polls. In Rasmussen, he is ahead 41% to 37% with 17% for Barkley. Two weeks ago, Franken led by 6%. In a University of Wisconsin poll, he is ahead 40% to 34% with 15% for Barkley.

• In Kentucky’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell leads 47% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll.

• In Georgia’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss leads 47% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago.

• In Louisiana’s Senate race, Democratic Sen. Landrieu leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll. She led by 14% last month.

• In Maine’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Collins leads 54% to 42% in a Critical Insight poll.

• In Washington’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Gov. Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll.

• In IL-11, Democrat Debby Halvorson leads 50% to 37% in a new SUSA poll.

• In PA-12, Democratic Rep. Murtha is only up 46% to 41% in a new Susquehanna poll.

• In WA-08, Democrat Darcy Burner storms back to grab a 50% to 46% lead in a new SUSA poll. Reichert trailed by 10% three weeks ago.

• In MI-09, Democrat Gary Peters leads 46% to 36% against Rep. Knollenberg in a DCCC internal.

• In OH-15, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leads 44% to 36% in a DCCC poll. She led by the same margin three three weeks ago.

• In AL-02, Democrat Bobby Bright leads 50% to 43% in a DCCC poll.

Senate: It is difficult to know what to make of the Minnesota Senate race. Barkley is holding stable just under 20%, but his support is not firm: It could end up at a far lower point, but it could also end up rising if voters come to think he has a chance of pulling it off. In either case, it is impossible to know how that would affect Coleman and Franken’s totals.

House: Democrats get great news from SUSA. Darcy Burner appeared to be fading in WA-08, but she has now led in three polls in a row. The first two were Democratic polls, now an independent pollster confirms her comeback. IL-11 was once going to be an easy pick-up before GOP candidate Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient. Now, the Democratic surge appears to have buried Republican prospects of a come-from-behind victory here.

Furthermore, a trio of DCCC poll completes the strong news for Democrats, especially when combined with the NRCC pulling out of MI-09. That said, Susquehanna’s poll from PA-12 confirms the Democrats’ worst fear that Rep. Murtha’s recent comments about his districts has endangered his re-election prospects.