Campaign Diaries

In yet another twist in the Ted Stevens trial, the jury sent the judge a note… asking for the removal of one of its members. The note, written by the foreman, explained that, “she is being rude, disrespectful and unreasonable. She has had violent outbursts with other jurors and that’s not helping anyone. The jurors are getting off-course. She’s not following the laws and rules that are being stipulated to in the main instructions.” Judge Sullivan convoked the jury and asked to be courteous towards one another, so no juror has been removed for now, and the jury is back to deliberating over Stevens’ legal - and electoral - fate.

If this juror’s hostility is based on disagreement over the facts of the case, it could mean that the jury is having trouble reaching a decision - a good sign for the defense. If it is due to the juror’s natural propensity to be “rude, disrespectful and unreasonable,” well, it might not mean anything at all. For now, the consequence of all of this is to delay a verdict and with it any sense of resolution in what is the biggest outstanding question that will be answered before Election Day. (That said, it is highly unlikely that the jury is unable to reach a decision by November 3th, so it’s unlikely that voters will go to the polls before knowing the verdict.)

Meanwhile, the volume of ads in some of the most heated congressional races is being dialed up. In Colorado, Republicans are getting desperate in their attempts to destabilize Mark Udall, who has led in ever single poll taken this year. While third party groups have poured millions in the race and the GOP has invested a lot of efforts in painting Udall as too far to the left, numbers have barely moved for months now, so the NRSC’s latest ad literally goes all-out on the font size department, proclaiming to all viewers that Udall is a “Boulder liberal” who marches in lockstep with his party:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-bgF-aiDTM"]

You decide whether such an ad has a chance of being effective. It doesn’t introduce a new argument, simply recycles attacks that have been running (unsuccessfuly) for months and illustrates them more directly. In Kentucky, it is Democrats who are upping their attacks, though they are doing so on a topic that has proved effective over the past few weeks. Mitch McConnell’s decline in the polls can be directly related to the economic crisis, and the DSCC’s new ad accuses the incumbent Senator of being responsible for the state’s losing jobs. The spot details the number of jobs particular counties lost to different countries:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRLaEYxR1vM"]

Mitch McConnell is also being targeted by a 527, Campaign Money Watch. The group is spending $380,000 on an ad accusing the incumbent of using his clout to help pharmaceutical and insurance interests. All of these expenditures are taking place in the midst of heightening tensions between the two campaigns. Republicans are charging that Lunsford stole and erased recordings out of a McConnell digital recorder during a debate, and they are considering filing a lawsuit against the Democratic candidate himself.

The prize for the day’s most outrageous ad goes to GOP Rep. Scott Garrett of NJ-05, who occupies what is still considered as a relatively safe seat. But his opponent, Dennis Shulman, is credible enough that the race merits attention. Shulman is a blind rabbi but that is not preventing Garrett of running a jaw-dropping ad that accuses Shulman of wanting to “negotiate with terrorists” while Shulman’s face is juxtaposed with Ahmadinejad’s:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a1GsGv5Dlo"]

The DCCC has not spent any money on this district; given how many seats they are spending in, that suggests that Rep. Garrett is not that vulnerable, which makes his decision to go so negative rather surprising. This gives an opening for Shulman to get some media attention, after all. But Republican congressional candidates are not being particularly careful about what they are saying these days, which is surely giving NRCC officials huge headaches.

While it has not reached the level of Bachmann’s anti-Americanism rant, a recent statement by Rep. Hayes of NC-08 (”Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God”) has attracted significant attention in the local media and has forced Hayes on the defensive. (NC-08 is rated a toss-up in my most recent ratings.) Hayes made the problem worse when his campaign denied it made the comments, then acknowledged them after an audio recording surfaced, and then Hayes denied that the comments had been denied! Of course, Democrats have their own problem with incumbents shooting themselves in the foot, as Rep. Murtha (PA-12)’s comments about his district’s racism and his later correction that they were rednecks has suddenly put that race on our radar screen.