Comments on: Poll watch: Trackings converge towards 7% margin, Obama up big in MN and WI, McCain stops bleeding in WV and OH

By: ly

ly — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 10:42:22 +0000

Enough is enough. Millions of house keys have been swarmed back into the Banks. Millions of citizens living and working in the number one country have not been receiving any decent dental/ health care! How many people are sleeping during this winter in the caravans? Total bankcrupcy of “laissez fair” ideology! Total bankruptcy of people’s trust in Bush-McCain’s terrible party policies.
Let’s do something in our reach to make Mr.Obama President of USA.
Hope for an important change for a better future for Amercia and the world. May God bless Mr. Obama and the Americans.

By: Coco

Coco — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:26:54 +0000

SurveyUSA Minnesota: Obama 50 - McCain 44

(It was 47-46 for McCain last time.)

By: Guy

Guy — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:53:15 +0000

if you look on Daily Kos and the NC thread (click through NC Governor poll) you will see several Kos readers who are Democrat saying they are unlikely to vote for Purdue or will vote for her whilst holding their noses. This does not bode well for her.

By: Guy

Guy — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:10:37 +0000

Taniel - you have been very fair. My point, which I may not have made well, is that if “good” news for McCain is that he is a little ahead in WV then things are really bad for him.

Regarding Purdue, my wife supported Richard Moore who is the state treasurer (he has made NC have the second best pension fund in the country and we have a AAA credit rating which most states don`t have). But she was fully prepared to vote a full Democratic ticket. The debates here have been enlightening. Bev comes across as culturally conservative in her mannerisms, pretty vague on what she would do and Mike Munger (Chair of the Duke Political Science) department is a pragmatic Libertarian who I know several people have been impressed with on. He has some solid ideas for the state (expanding Charter schools, having an independent roads commision etc) and is willing to be independent (the only candidate to be against the death penalty and for same sex unions). But the main reason is a lot of people have said that Bev Purdue “annoys” them and it isn`t really anything specific, but if people have that feeling it can be hard to shake. I know this may not be the best answer to your query but if someone annoys you, even if ill defined, then you will not vote for them.

Bev should be an easy winner since Democrats become Governor even when their Presidential nominee gets beaten by 12% so if Obama comes within 2% you would expect a boost of maybe 10% for the Democratic Governor nominee - she doesn`t seem to be benefiting from Obama’s coattails.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:52:15 +0000

Guy,

I have never shied away from saying that Obama is in command, and I was certainly not trying to suggest that holding on to WV is good news for McCain in a sense that is relevant to his winning… I said it was comforting for him, which it certainly is after that ARG poll showing Obama leading by 8%. Also, in the day’s polling there were no other competitive red states polled than Ohio and West Virginia - with a slight lead for McCain or both. My post has been updated to reflect this point!

And I am also interested in Joe’s question about Perdue!

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:51:24 +0000

Guy
Just out of curiosity, why aren’t you voting for Perdue?
Is it because of the nasty primary? (That ripped the Democrats in my family apart!)

By: Guy

Guy — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:44:53 +0000

I like how you try to be even handed but if one of the two pieces of good news McCain can tout is him leading in WV then it is bad for McCain. It is like saying Obama leads in NJ. WV was never considered, until recently, to be in play after the Dem primary in June.
McCain cannot spin this data as a comeback if most of the tracking polls are now converged at 7% - 7% is a big hill to climb in 16 days.

Regarding Bev Purdue in the NC Governor’s race. I think she is under-performing both Hagan and Obama from anecdotal evidence - my wife and several neighbors will be voting Obama and Hagan but are certainly not voting Purdue. I expect the Libertarian candidate, Mike Munger of Duke University, will get a good vote (for a libertarian) because of disaffected Democrats.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:35:51 +0000

Zogby polls are a joke. I remember they misled me in the days leading to the 2004 election making me believe the Kerry would win.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:10:23 +0000

eep the ood work, Taniel. An objective blogger always prevails, and you have done a thrmendously wonderful job of informing us voters without a hint of unbalanced blogging, in my humble opinion.
Now, let me reflect on my personal (yes, personal and maybe biased) take on the election. Of all red states, Ohio is the most racialized state. it is the state with the highest percentage of voters who said they won’t vote for Obama because of his race during the primariy contest between him and Hillary. And that is why Ohio remains “resistant” to diversity and integration into the diverse and more harmonious United States. Ohioans have every right to reject Obama as much as they want, but for me as a white person with family and friends in Ohio, thi state is a backward, tradition-bound one sure to resist America’s progress as a great nation.
Now speaking of polls, I don’t trust John Zogby, period. Your ability to avoid criticizing him may reflect your keen desire to remain objective, Taniel; but polls, whilethey have been mostly reliable during much of the primaries, we have to question underlying motives (could the pollsters be reflecting the wishes of their respective political parties?) because they aren’t nonpartisan. Nonetheless, lets see what happens as the week progresses starting tomorrow.