Campaign Diaries

Just as yesterday, this roundup of poll shows that Barack Obama remains in a dominant position but that John McCain is by no means out of the race. Republicans can latch onto small trendlines in their favor in the Research 2000 and Battleground tracking polls, or to the fact that the first night of post-debate polling has not moved the numbers in Rasmussen and Gallup despite Wednesday night snap polls that had Obama winning the debate decisively. Furthermore, SUSA released the first post-debate poll of Florida today, and it is the first survey since September to have McCain in the lead – albeit within the margin of error.

That said, Obama continues to get the lion share of good news, starting with post-debate leads outside of the MoE in Nevada, Colorado and Missouri – any of which would get Obama to the White House (yes, even Nevada by itself, since Obama needs 5EVs to get to a tie, which favors him). Furthermore, a new poll from North Dakota finds a tied race – the third poll in a row to have the two candidates within the margin of error (the two previous ones had Obama narrowly leading) which confirms that North Dakota is back in play.

Over the next 17 days (!), pay particularly close attention first to the blue states where Obama has seized a double-digit lead in order to see whether there are any signs of McCain inching back to a more competitive position (for now, there are none); second, to Colorado and Virginia, where most polls show Obama with a decisive lead (in fact, many voters have already started sending in their ballots in Colorado). McCain can defend North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Florida and Ohio all he wants, it won’t do him much good unless he can close the gap in the Centennial State and in the Old Dominion. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

• The tracking polls find Obama leading, though there is no consistent trend. Research 2000 continues to have Obama leading by double-digit (52% to 42%) though his edge in Thursday’s sample alone had dropped to 6%, and Hotline now has Obama up by the same margin (50% to 40%, a two point gain for the Democrat). Research 2000 holds at 50% to 46%, Zogby holds at 49% to 44%. In Gallup, Obama leads 50% to 43% among registered voters, 51% to 45% among likely voters and 49% to 47% among a traditional model of likely voters. Two other tracking polls I rarely mention: Obama leads by 4% in Battleground tracking (-2%) and by 5% in IBD/TIPPP (+2%).

• Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado. He led by 6% ten days ago. Obama gets 93% of the Democratic vote and even leads among men by 2%.

• Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Nevada. He led by 4% ten days ago.

• McCain leads 49% to 47% in a SUSA poll of Florida. He led by 1% two weeks ago. Republicans outnumber Democrats by 4% in the poll, a greater margin than in 2004. The good news for McCain is that he has an 8% lead in Central Florida. This poll was taken after the debate.

• Obama leads 58% to 35% in a Research 2000 poll of Florida. He led by 5% last week. This poll was taken right before the debate.

• Obama leads 52% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Missouri. He led by 3% in a poll taken Sunday; this survey was taken Tuesday night, before the debate.

• The candidates are tied in a Research 2000 poll of North Dakota. A mid-September poll had McCain leading by 13%.

• Obama leads 53% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of Oregon.

• McCain leads 49% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll of Georgia. He led by 7% two weeks ago.

• McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Research 2000 poll of Mississippi. Obama gets 15% of the white vote.

• Obama leads 59% to 35% in a SUSA poll of California. If the final margin is anything close to this, can Obama possibly not win the popular vote?

• McCain leads 52% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll of Texas.

• McCain leads 58% to 35% in a Research 2000 poll of Wyoming.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• Prop 8 still leads in SUSA’s poll, 48% to 45%. More worrisome - Prop 8 leads among the 19% of voters who have already cast a ballot, 47% to 45%.

• Merkley leads 47% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of Oregon’s Senate race. He led by 5% three weeks ago.

• Mark Udall leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado’s Senate race. He led by 2% three weeks ago.

• Sen. Chambliss leads 47% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll of Georgia’s Senate race. Chambliss led by 1% two weeks ago.

• Sen. Wicker has a 47% to 46% lead in a Research 2000 poll of Mississippi’s Senate race. Musgrove gets 26% of the white vote. Wicker led by 5% last month.

• Sen. Cornyn leads 50% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of Texas’s Senate race.

• Sen Landrieu leads 47% to 42% in an internal poll for the Kennedy campaign in Louisiana’s Senate race.

• Jay Nixon leads 57% to 38% in a Rasmussen poll of the Missouri gubernatorial race.

• In CA-11, Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney leads 52% to 41% in a new SUSA poll.

• In KY-02, Republican candidate Brett Guthrie leads 51% to 42% in a new SUSA poll. Guthrie trailed by 3% in June, led by 6% in September. The trendlines are good for the GOP.

• In WY-AL, Democrat Gary Trauner leads 44% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll. A September poll found a tie.

• In FL-24, a DCCC poll has Suzanne Kosmas leading GOP Rep. Feeney 58% to 35%!

• In FL-16, Rep. Mahoney’s support has collapsed in an internal Republican poll. Rooney leads 55% to 29%.

Senate: The numbers from Georgia, Mississippi and Texas all point to the danger the GOP faces on Election Night. The first two races are currently rated lean Republican in my ratings, while the third is likely Republican. There is no question that Georgia and Mississippi are highly competitive - but these are precisely the races that will push Democrats to (or above) 60 seats.

The situation is particularly precarious for Gordon Smith: Oregon’s vote is entirely conducted via mail, and voters are going to start receiving their ballots this week, making Merkley’s current lead very valuable. As for Louisiana, these numbers explain why the NRSC decided to re-invest in the state after all - but did the committee have any other number than Kennedy’s own internals? Did they even have Kennedy’s numbers? Reports that Sen. Vitter and perhaps Karl Rove pressured the NRSC to go back in Louisiana suggest that the committee’s change of heart was due to outside pressure as much as to new information from the ground.

House: The two Florida races that involve ethically challenged incumbents have broken wide open in internal surveys conducted for the opposite party. But while FL-24 is already rated lean pick-up in my ratings (and FL-16 will be upgraded to the GOP column in my rating update out tomorrow), the DCCC’s numbers do seem inflated and we will wait for independent polling of the race.

The news is also very good for Democrats in WY-AL. Trauner still faces an uphill climb since most undecided voters are Republican, but he came within a few points from toppling an incumbent in 2006, so this race is certainly a possibility for Democrats. CA, meanwhile, was one of the GOP’s top prospects but Adler’s campaign hasn’t gone so well in the past few months. But SUSA’s results from KY-02 are very good news for the GOP, as this is one of the conservative open seats the Democrats are hoping to snatch away.