Comments on: Poll watch: ND back in contention, OH resists Obama; Dems strong in CT-04, not in MO-06 http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/10/16/poll-watch-nd-and-oh/ Obsessive political analysis Tue, 16 Mar 2010 21:52:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/10/16/poll-watch-nd-and-oh/comment-page-1/#comment-6039 Jaxx Raxor Thu, 16 Oct 2008 23:44:47 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=3510#comment-6039 That Obama is slightly lagging in Ohio is not suprising, considering that at the presidential level it still leans toward the GOP and doesn't have as many finaicial problems as the Dem leaning states of Pensylvania and Michigan. Florida is McCain's biggest problem. If Obama wins any of the remaining swing states, McCain would at least have a chance if he also took away a big to medium sized Democratic state (although its getting more unlikely). But if he loses Florida, there is almost no chance for McCain to win, for even if he was to win Pennslyvania, he would still lose. In a Obama Florida win, McCain would have to win both Pennsylvania and another Dem leaning state (like New Hampshire) in order to barely win the election. In terms of the overall tracking polls, It's not exactly a suprise that McCain is somewhat closing the gap. As the finacial situation becomes less startling and urgent, Obama's support will start creeping down while McCain goes up. I think the election will be much closer than many pundits are saying, but I do think that Obama will win a narrow victory (probably around a 3% margin: the mirror of Bush's victory over Kerry) and win all the Kerry States plus Iowa and New Mexico, and one swing state,most likely Virginia, Florida, and Colorado, but maybe also Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, or North Carolina. McCain will win Indiana, but only by single digits, and will probably hold West Virgina despite the polls. It is true that McCain would win the state not because residents there love McCain, in fact they are apathetic towards him. Its more because they despise Obama, and I doubt the economic crisis alone will allow them to go ahead and vote for Obama. That Obama is slightly lagging in Ohio is not suprising, considering that at the presidential level it still leans toward the GOP and doesn’t have as many finaicial problems as the Dem leaning states of Pensylvania and Michigan. Florida is McCain’s biggest problem. If Obama wins any of the remaining swing states, McCain would at least have a chance if he also took away a big to medium sized Democratic state (although its getting more unlikely). But if he loses Florida, there is almost no chance for McCain to win, for even if he was to win Pennslyvania, he would still lose. In a Obama Florida win, McCain would have to win both Pennsylvania and another Dem leaning state (like New Hampshire) in order to barely win the election.

In terms of the overall tracking polls, It’s not exactly a suprise that McCain is somewhat closing the gap. As the finacial situation becomes less startling and urgent, Obama’s support will start creeping down while McCain goes up. I think the election will be much closer than many pundits are saying, but I do think that Obama will win a narrow victory (probably around a 3% margin: the mirror of Bush’s victory over Kerry) and win all the Kerry States plus Iowa and New Mexico, and one swing state,most likely Virginia, Florida, and Colorado, but maybe also Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, or North Carolina. McCain will win Indiana, but only by single digits, and will probably hold West Virgina despite the polls. It is true that McCain would win the state not because residents there love McCain, in fact they are apathetic towards him. Its more because they despise Obama, and I doubt the economic crisis alone will allow them to go ahead and vote for Obama.

]]> By: Anonymous http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/10/16/poll-watch-nd-and-oh/comment-page-1/#comment-6038 Anonymous Thu, 16 Oct 2008 23:12:37 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=3510#comment-6038 The zogby polls are confusing. Are you sure about the numbers and states? McCain is up in Florida and Obama leads in Florida?!!! Which is it? Zogby polls are bizarre. The zogby polls are confusing. Are you sure about the numbers and states? McCain is up in Florida and Obama leads in Florida?!!! Which is it? Zogby polls are bizarre.

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