If the burden in the second debate was solely on John McCain, it is unclear whether there is any burden at all tonight. Absent a major gaffe by Barack Obama, is there anything McCain can do tonight that might change the fundamentals of the race?
McCain’s biggest hope is for Obama to stumble - and not just with a small slip-up that could embarrass him for a day or two. In 2004, the Bush campaign had successfuly attacked John Kerry over his invoking Dick Cheney’s daughter’s sexual orientation to neutralize any positive spin Kerry might have gotten out of the encounter. But what McCain is hoping for isn’t to neutralize Obama for one or two news cycles; Republicans need a gaffe of such proportions that it could reframe the election’s final three weeks. Think, for instance, of Gerald Ford digging himself in a stunning hole on the question of Soviet domination in Eastern Europe.
But how likely is it that a politician as cautious as Obama could trip up in what will be the last of two dozen debates he has gone through this cycle alone? Furthermore, what are the odds of Obama committing a game-changing gaffe in the debate that will be devoted to the economy? This is not to say that Obama is more comfortable talking about the economy than about foreign policy, but that he has less to prove on the former - just as McCain has less to prove on the latter.
McCain was less pilloried for his foreign policy gaffes than Obama would have been if he had confused Shiite and Sunni or gotten the geography of Afghanistan and Pakistan wrong); the reverse could be true on domestic policy. If Obama had made a mistake when talking about Iraq or Russia, it could have reinforced the GOP’s argument that he is not ready to be commander-in-chief; if he stumbles when talking about health care premiums, what preexisting voter fear will it reinforce?
It is up to McCain, then, to do something that might change the race. The problem is that there is no obvious answer as to what might be a good idea.
The first strategy would be for McCain to shine on his own terms and impress voters to such an extent that they turn back to him. The problem with this is that McCain has shown no potential for such a performance in the first two presidential debates, and he is even more unlikely to turn one in when the conversation is about the economy.
McCain could try to seize the moment by making some spotlight-stealing announcement. Perhaps one that would be truly dramatic (some are suggesting a one-term pledge, though I cannot imagine McCain would do that tonight when the obvious place to milk such a possibility was in his convention speech), perhaps simply coming in with new substantial policy proposals that would allow McCain to control the debate and convince voters that he has a plan to fix the economy and the necessary leadership on an issue voters don’t think of as his strongpoint.
But the trouble is that voters are settling on Obama now, and McCain needs to first and foremost convince them to keep an open mind. Putting in a strong performance of his own is not enough, he needs to give voters a reason not to cast a ballot for his opponent.
Here is where McCain is in a truly difficult position. He has tried to attack Obama in previous debates but it has not done him much good; he chose to bring up Ayers on the trail over the past ten days, but polls suggest that the move might have backfired and hurt McCain’s favorability ratings more than Obama’s.
So does McCain invoke Ayers tonight? Does he bring up Rezko, ACORN or other of Obama’s potential weak points? If he does not, what can McCain possibly do that he has not tried before? And if he does not, does he not risk his negativity to backfire? Obama has surely rehearsed answers on all of these issues, starting with Ayers, and most of his conters probably include a pivot to accusing McCain of looking to change the subject away from the economy and being out-of-touch. That charge has worked for Obama over the past ten days, and McCain strategists must know it could work tonight.
Furthermore, McCain runs the risk of ruining his best attacks by displaying the visceral animosity he feels towards his opponent. He has been unable to hide it in their previous two encounters, and it has undercut his performances. Can McCain go on the attack while controling his condescendation tonight? That might be the most important question of the night.
Update: The Washington Post’s investigative piece on McCain, Verizon, AT&T and cell phone towers comes at the worst possible time for McCain. If it breaks through, it could knock any momentum McCain gets out of the night
The most important person on stage tonight may be Bob Schieffer. If he holds their feet to the fire and makes them debate; and he says he will; this could be much different debate than the previous two. The table and a format simular to the first debate will also help.
I don’t think the economy questions will be where the fireworks will be but rather health care, immigration, social securiety and/or education. The economic policies have been laid out on both sides and are too vague to be discussed in much detail; so most of the debate will be on how they feel your pain. The other issues; with the exception of health care have not been discussed in detail and I look forward to hearing the positions of each candidate debated.
I do hope the Ayers crap and other attacks are not brought up or, if so, dismissed quickly.
I don’t expect any serious gaffes; certainly not by Obama but there may be some small errors if fact.
I do expect McCain may try and make some big announcement (I have no idea what it will be.), but it will and should be looked as as a stunt.
in short I think, and hope, this will be the best of the three debates.
I just don’t know is there is anything John McCain can do to change the inertia of this election cycle. His campaign resembles the Titanic, and is about to hit a very large iceberg on Nov 4. Unless something extraordinary happens between now and election day, Barack Obama is going to be the next president of the United States. And that will be a momentous occasion. Still I cannot shake the feeling that the hysterical reaction of the right bodes well for the country. This folks on the right are really pissed off! Listening to right wing talk radio has become excruciatingly hard. Monica Crawley was remarking yesterday that Barack’s family in Kenya had been involved in the slave trade way back then, Hannity today had an animated conversation with a caller that claimed that Obama was a Muslim with ties to terrorist organizations, one of our local kooks here in the Northern Virginia area was interviewing another wacko that claimed evidence of Bill Ayers ghostwriting Obama’s books! The vitriol is so loud and thick, the first salvo I am afraid of an attempt to delegitimize Obama’s election to POTUS. I have the impression that once Hillary Clinton was defeated by Obama, the right was certain that America was not ready to elect an African American as president, and the election would have been won by default. But Barack Obama has proved himself a gifted politician, and I believe a man worthy of the presidency. A radio talk show host that I like very much said, and I paraphrase; “the republicans have an addiction to wining elections that make methamphetamines look like baby aspirin”. And it shows. From the fat drug addict Limbaugh to the ever charming Laura Ingraham the meltdown is truly remarkable! I voted today, since I will be overseas on Election Day. I voted for Barack Obama. And did my wife and my son. And I cannot be happier.
“Still I cannot shake the feeling that the hysterical reaction of the right bodes well for the country”
Should be “does not bode well for the country”. Typo!! sorry!
Can McCain go on the attack
while controling his condescendation tonight?
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Very interesting question, Taniel, given that McCain has been called “hotheaded” on Capitol Hill. My sense is that with his present temperament, he won’t be able to attack his opponent without being overly condescending. I think that only a cautious, calm, and collected Obama is capable of this feat, not someone who has been attacked as “erratic”.
I also think that if McCain comes up with some very dramatic policy proposals, voters will see him as being desperate. The last debate may not be the palce to make major proposals, but to make closing arguments and try your best to appear as presidential as possible.