Campaign Diaries

Twelve! A week after Kentucky, the DSCC has decided to go up on Georgia airwaves to attack Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss. This means that the DSCC is pouring in money in ten GOP-held seats, with two more (VA and NM) being such locks for Democrats that the national committee does not need to move in.

One of these twelve seats is Maine, where there is little evidence that Susan Collins is at all vulnerable but which is a cheap enough state that it does not cost the DSCC that much to air ads. By contrast, the DSCC’s spending in Georgia is relatively cheaper, $500,000 for the upcoming week.

$500,000 is certainly not a lot of money, especially against a well-funded incumbent, but how much more can the DSCC do without endangering its positions in the (many) other states it is trying to contest. North Carolina, New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi - all of these races are still very much contested, and the DSCC cannot spread its resources too thin. This is also why the DSCC asked Barack Obama’s (cash-flooded) campaign to divert some of its money to Senate Democrats to allow the DSCC to invest in more races; the Obama campaign refused to do so.

That said, even this money is a crucial investment if Democrats are hoping to pull Jim Martin through. The former state Senator does not have enough money himself to conduct a strong campaign and take advantage of the current climate. And early voting started weeks ago in the state and half-a-million people have already voted, so a late Martin surge risks falling short because of voters who cast their ballot before Democrats went on air. Furthermore, African-Americans look to be voting early, meaning that many voters who are sure of voting Democratic have already cast their ballot or will do so in the coming days. If Martin’s profile isn’t high enough, he risks losing some of these votes, which is why the DSCC’s involvement is important.

In other spending news, the Republican strategy seems to be to put its money in far smaller races - but make sure to fund those contests as much as possible! In Washington’s gubernatorial race, for instance, the Republican Governor’s Association is spending $3.5 million against Christine Gregoire, while the Building Industry Association of Washington has reached $7 million of spending. That is a lot of money for an outside group. Another race in which heavy outside expenditures are being made is Minnesota’s Senate race, where the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is going after Al Franken.

In NH-01, meanwhile, the NRCC has bought a lot of TV time against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter who is facing one of the most competitive races in the country. The Republican committee is throwing $400,000 in the race - a striking amount given that the GOP is cutting so many of its incumbent and challengers off. The NRCC’s ad against Shea-Porter (who is being helped by hundreds of thousands of DCCC expenditures) attacks her for having voted to let sex offenders and felons live in public housing. The ad does not explain what should be done with these people instead and whether Republicans believe they should be left homeless:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzOvj_bOrxc"]

Another tough-hitting ad is being aired in Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell’s latest spot features a widow accusing Bruce Lunsford’s clinic of having helped kill her husband! This has been part of McConnell’s major push to indict Lunsford’s health care company.

Finally, the day’s prize for the ugliest negative advertisement goes to Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker. In Mississippi, Wicker is now running a ridiculous spot that accuses Ronnie Musgrove of promoting gay rights by featuring a group of Village People-like people handing over money to his campaign. In a particularly slimy moment, the campaign official says “let me guess” when he first sees the cowboy-dressed man who is supposed to represent the gay agenda:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDRQpn9yD-w"]

It is hard to ever predict how such cultural war ads will play, though the ad’s low production-quality shouldn’t help Wicker. But to the extent that Republicans have been falling over the past month because of the economic crisis, it is thus doubtful that voters will come to make up their minds on other issues - if McCain can’t get through and talk about about terrorism, can Wicker be effective talking about gay rights and abortion?