The window is closing for McCain to alter the state of play - something he needs to do to have a chance at saving his ticket in the multitude of red states in which he is now endangered. Yet, it is Obama who continues to post impressive gains day after day, for instance surging ahead to a dominant lead in a new poll of Missouri and taking the lead for the very first time in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio.
As always, the take-away lesson of these polls is the fact that Obama looks untouchable in blue states (he has two new double digit leads in Pennsylvania) and the high number of red states in which he has either tied McCain or looks to be ahead. Rasmussen’s weekly survey of 5 red states shows that McCain doesn’t have the lead in a single one, and Obama’s advantage is outside of the MoE in Florida - a state in which he has now led in the 9 most recent polls. Add to that new Obama leads in Nevada and in North Dakota (!), a second Obama lead in Ohio and it becomes obvious that McCain needs to dramatically change the dynamics at the national level.
Particularly noteworthy are the fact that Obama is leading in two MO surveys (including 8% in SUSA) and in ND. Even if the latter poll doesn’t come from a known pollster and should thus be taken with a grain of salt, it is telling that Obama’s surge has reached such proportions that states from which he pulled out (ND) or briefly decreased his ad spending (MO) in September now show him ahead. It will take a lot of effort for McCain to put these states back in the box, let alone cut Obama’s new-found edge in more obvious battlegrounds like Colorado, Virginia and Florida. On to the day’s full roundup:
- Obama continues to dominate the tracking polls, though his lead slightly diminishes. He leads 52% to 40% in Research 2000 (-1%), 48% to 44% in Zogby (-1%), 48% to 42% in Hotline (-2%), 50% to 45% in Rasmussen (-1%). In Gallup, Obama leads 51% to 41% (+3%) but only by 7% in a tighter likely voter screen.
- Obama leads 53% to 43% in an ABC/Washington Post national poll. His lead is 13% among registered voters. This is a clear improvement over ABC’s previous poll two weeks ago, where Obama was ahead by 4%. Obama’s position is very strong among Democrats.
- Obama leads 52% to 45% in a USA Today/Gallup national poll, though here also his lead is tighter in a tighter likely voter screen (50% to 46%).
- Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Marist poll of Ohio, including 89% of Democrats. Among registered voters, Obama leads 48% to 40%. Obama’s favorability rating has jumped up to 60%, while McCain is 54%.
- Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. This is the first Rasmussen poll to ever have Obama ahead in the state.
- Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 3% in the previous Rasmussen poll.
- Obama leads 53% to 41% in a Marist poll of Pennsylvania. He leads 49% to 40% among registered voters. His favorability rating has surged upwards to 65%, compared to 55% for John McCain.
- Morning Call’s latest daily poll numbers from Pennsylvania have Obama leading 51% to 38%, his biggest margin yet in this tracking poll.
- Obama leads by a remarkable 51% to 43% in a new SUSA poll of Missouri. He trailed by 2% in late September. The two are tied among white voters and Obama gets 89% of Democrats, up from 82% two weeks ago.
- Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Missouri.
- Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. He led by 2% last week.
- The candidates are tied in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. Obama led by 1% last week.
- Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Nevada. In the previous poll, taken in August, McCain led by 7%.
- Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.
- McCain leads 51% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Georgia. Obama leads among the 18% of respondents who say they have already voted.
- Obama leads 45% to 43% in a “Forum poll” of North Dakota.
- Obama leads 61% to 34% in a SUSA poll of New York.
Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:
- Kay Hagan leads 44% to 39% according to her internal poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.
- Jeff Merkley leads 46% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Oregon’s Senate race. He led by only 2% in a survey two weeks ago. Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow gets 7%.
- Jay Nixon crushes Kenny Holshof 56% to 34% in a SUSA poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.
- Saxby Chambliss leads 46% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Georgia’s Senate race. Chambliss led by only 2% two weeks ago.
- Frank Lautenberg leads 51% to 38% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey’s Senate race.
- In NV-03, Rep. Porter leads 43% to 40% in a Mason Dixon poll. The margin of error is very large, especially for an independent poll - 6% - so this is well within that.
- In FL-25, an internal poll for the Garcia campaign finds GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart leading 45% to 42%.
- In LA-06, a DCCC internal finds Rep. Cazayoux crushing Bill Cassidy 46% to 29%, with 9% going to Democrat Michael Jackson.
- In FL-13, a Buchanan internal shows the GOP incumbent leading 50% to 32%.
Statewide: Strong numbers for Democrats, who confirm their good dispositions in Oregon and North Carolina’s Senate races (both essential to their hopes of having a good congressional Election Night). Neither Hagan nor Merkley have put the race away, certainly, but polling numbers have shifted towards both of them in recent weeks. As for Georgia, it is looking highly competitive - a late breaking race that might be remembered as the ultimate sleeper of the 2008 cycle. Whether Martin has a chance of pulling an upset likely depends on the size of the African-American turnout.
House: This is the second poll Democrats have released showing Cazayoux crushing Cassidy in LA-06. I am still as doubtful that the two Democrats combined could be 26% ahead of the Republican candidate in this conservative a district, but the GOP still has to produce any counter poll. The district is currently rated lean take-over, but that could soon change based on what the NRCC does. The Republican committee commissioned a poll from the district a few days ago. If they go out with an ad buy or release the results in the coming days, they must like their chances in the district. Otherwise, the race is indeed far less competitive than we thought.
It is as unclear what we should make of the numbers from NV-03, currently rated lean take-over. Porter is clearly vulnerable (at 43%), though he is clearly still in the game. The margin of error is large enough that it hard to draw any conclusions. As for the Florida internal polls, they confirm what we have known: FL-25 is highly competitive, while the GOP appears to have put up a solid firewall in FL-13.
October 13, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Here’s an interesting tidbit about McCain’s statistical chances for an election-winning rebound, reported by ABC News polling director Gary Langer today (via Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic). Ambinder’s post includes a link back to the full ABC News article.
“Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.”
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/abcpost_poll_an_historical_rem.php