Campaign Diaries

Barack Obama’s large lead in the latest Newsweek national poll (52% to 41%, up from a tie in mid-September) confirms the current strength of the Democratic nominee, who would win in a landslide if the election were held today. At this point, the McCain campaign is not even close to being competitive - neither in national polls nor in state surveys (McCain trails by big margins today in Florida and Colorado, neither of which he can afford to lose, while Obama continues to crush McCain in Iowa, a state Republicans actually still believe is competitive since McCain keeps traveling there).

This might not be what we have grown used to over the past few cycles, but national polls now look to be much more important than state surveys: McCain will only have a shot at getting a majority in the electoral vote if he substantially improves his national standing, and every day the tracking polls show Obama up double digits is one more wasted day for the GOP.

What is most problematic for the McCain campaign is that Obama’s surge has come first and foremost among registered Democrats. Obama had trouble consistently getting 80% in that group, but surveys (starting with the Newsweek poll) now regularly show him with high levels of party loyalty - Newsweek even finds that 88% of Clinton supporters are now voting for Obama versus only 7% for McCain, a startling change from summer numbers. I have long explained that Obama would be guaranteed victory if he captured the Democratic vote in a year in which Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans, and that is exactly what has happened over the past three weeks because of the financial crisis.

That McCain’s path to salvation requires reversing Obama’s gains among his base rather than among independents and Republicans is just one sign of the difficulty of McCain’s task. And with that, on to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

• Obama retains his dominant position in the tracking polls, taking his biggest lead ever in Hotline (50% to 40%), ahead 52% to 40% in Research 2000, 50% to 41% in Gallup (-1%), 52% to 45% in Rasmussen (+2%) and 48% to 44% in Zogby (-1%). Zogby remains the tightest of the five due to its partisan weighting, but the trend lines have shown no movement over McCain over the past week. [Update: Zogby's October 13th release is already out, and it shows Obama jumping to a 6% lead, 49% to 43%.]

• Obama leads 52% to 42% in a PPP poll of Colorado on the strength of getting 71% of the Hispanic vote! He led by 7% three weeks ago.

• Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of Florida.

• McCain leads 48% to 46% in a “Ohio Newspaper Poll” survey of Ohio. He led by 6% in mid-September.

• Obama leads 52% to 40% in the Morning Call tracking poll of Pennsylvania.

• Obama leads 54% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Oregon.

• Obama leads 54% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Iowa.

• McCain leads 62% to 35% in a SUSA poll of Alabama.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• A stunning Insider Advantage poll finds Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin tied at 45% in Georgia’s Senate race.

• Mark Udall leads 49% to 39% in a PPP poll of Colorado’s Senate race. He led by 8% three weeks ago.

• Kay Hagan leads 45% to 42% in a Civitas poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She trailed by 2% three weeks ago.

• In AZ-03, Research 2000 finds Rep. Shadegg leading 48% to 39% while a DCCC poll finds Democrat Bob Lord ahead 45% to 44%.

• In WV-02, Research 2000 finds Rep. Capito leading Anne Barth 53% to 39%.

• In VA-02, Research 2000 has Rep. Drake leading Glenn Nye 51% to 37%.

• In VA-05, an internal poll for the Perriello campaign finds the Democratic challenger trailing Rep. Goode 48% to 40%.

• In IN-03, an internal poll for the campaign of Mike Montagano finds GOP Rep. Souder leading 44% to 39%. A month ago, Souder led 50% to 37%.

Senate: All three of the day’s polls bring good news for Democrats, who first and foremost solidify their leading Colorado’s race. Udall has not been able to put the race away, but a 10% lead in mid-October looks far more solid than the same margin in late spring. Hagan, meanwhile, continues to inch ahead of Dole in most polls, and while the situation might not be as catastrophic for Dole as Repubican operatives seem to believe, the incumbent is clearly in big trouble. What is stunning, meanwhile, is to see Chambliss and Martin tied in what is the first poll of the Georgia Senate race to not find Chambliss leading - though a number of surveys over the past two weeks have shown the race dramatically tightening.

House: The polls are far more disappointing on the House side for Democrats, as Research 2000 brought very disappointing news for the DCCC’s efforts to expand the map in WV-02 and VA-02. Both seats are GOP-leaning, and while Drake and Capitlo have been looking relatively safe, Democrats had some hope of contesting both races. Another interesting race is AZ-03, where it is hard to know what to make of the DCCC’s internal numbers. The DCCC’s polls have been finding some suspiciously good results for Democrats over the past few days (an 11% lead for Peters in MI-09?).