Campaign Diaries

I’m not trying to sound like a broken record, but the basic dynamic of the presidential race is not changing: Obama is putting blue states away (he has yet another double-digit lead in Wisconsin in a new survey released today) and he is looking strong in a number of red states - any one of which would be enough to put him over the top. In today’s batch of surveys, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in a survey from Ohio and a survey from Florida.

Both states are of course absolutely crucial for McCain’s prospects - and both are at this point clearly inching away from him. Obama has led 9 of the last 11 Ohio polls, the only McCain edges being a 1% lead in the latest Rasmussen and a late September SUSA. That said, Obama’s margin remains generally tight, and he has not surged as much in this state as in others (like Virginia). In Florida, Obama has led in the past eight polls - and in all conducted in October! While McCain has been within the margin of error in some of these, but Obama has also pulled ahead by 7% or 8% in a few surveys.

Finally, new states continue to pop up as endangered. It was West Virginia yesterday, and Georgia today. The latest Insider Advantage poll from the Peach State finds Obama within the MoE - and closing the gap for the third IA poll in a row. Obama pulled out of the state in mid-September, when McCain’s prospects were at their highest; was that too hurried a decision? The early voting numbers are very encouraging for Democrats, as I have noted a few times, and at the very least Democratic competitiveness could help Jim Martin in the Senate race.

One good news for McCain is that he has a solid lead in NE-02 in the first poll of the district alone since the summer. Obama has just opened a second field office in Omaha in hope of taking that electoral vote - but for now he has a big gap to close. On to the day’s full presidential roundup:

• Obama retains his dominant position in the day’s tracking polls. He leads 52% to 40% in Research 2000 (+2%), 51% to 41% in Gallup (-1%), 50% to 45% in Rasmussen, 48% to 41% in Diego Hotline (+1%) and 48% to 43% in Zogby (+1%). Interestingly, Zogby specified that the Thursday night sample was the best Obama has had yet and he is above 50% for the first time; also note that Zogby’s partisan weighing is much tighter than other surveys, which explains why it is finding smaller margins.

• In the first national poll taken entirely after Tuesday’s presidential debate: Obama leads 46% to 39% in a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics national poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago. Obama’s favorability is now at a high of 60%, while McCain is at 53%. Another interesting internal: 51% say McCain is waging the more negative campaign (versus 27%). And 32% say they are less likely to vote for Obama because of Ayers; 61% say it makes no difference.

• Obama led 52% to 44% in a Strategic Vision poll of Florida. He trailed by 3% three weeks ago.

• Obama leads 49% to 44% in an Insider Advantage poll of Ohio. Obama led by 2% last week. This poll was conducted after the presidential debate.

• Obama leads 48% to 46% in a Strategic Vision poll of Ohio. He trailed by 4% a month ago.

• McCain leads 48% to 46% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina.

• McCain leads 49% to 46% in an Insider Advantage poll of Georgia. He led by 6% last week, 8% the week before and 18% before that! Did the Obama campaign pull out too soon?

• McCain leads 53% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll of Nebraska’s second district. An electoral vote is at stake here.

• Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• Kay Hagan leads 49% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 3% two weeks ago.

• Hagan leads 44% to 43% in a WSOC-TV poll of the same race.

• Mitch McConnell leads 48% to 45% in an internal poll for the Lunsford campaign in Kentucky’s Senate race.

• In WA-08, a Research 2000 poll finds Rep. Reichert leading 49% to 41% while an internal poll for the Burner campaign find her trailing 48% to 45%.

• In IN-09, Rep. Baron Hill leads 49% to 37% in a Research 2000 poll.

• In NE-02, Rep. Terry leads 49% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll. The DCCC surprisingly invested money in this district.

• In TX-10, GOP Rep. Culberson leads 48% to 40% against Michael Skelly in a Research 2000 poll.

• In AL-02, Bobby Bright leads Jay Love 46% to 45% in an internal poll, but he led by 10% in his previous internal!

• In MI-09, a Mitchell Research poll with a 6% MoE has a tie at 43%, while a DCCC poll finds Gary Peters crushing Rep. Knollenberg 46% to 37%. Peters led by 4% in an August DCCC poll.

• In MI-07, a DCCC poll finds Democrat Mark Schauer leading 43% to 35%.

• In MO-09, a DCCC poll finds Democrat Judy Baker leading 40% to 36%.

• In OH-15, a DCCC poll finds Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leading 44% to 36%, with 7% going to independent candidate Don Eckart.

Senate: Lunsford’s poll comes in the heels of a McConnell internal showing the incumbent up 9%. There is thus a consensus from all pollsters (SUSA, Rasmussen, Mason Dixon and the two campaigns) that this has become a single-digit race, and the race has undoubtedly become competitive, with a slight lean towards McConnell. In North Carolina, Kay Hagan continues to inch ahead and a third institute (Civitas) has a headline on their website proclaiming that Hagan has taken a lead in their poll but they have yet to release the numbers.

House: As always, take internal polls with a grain of salt, but they do paint a very rosy picture for House Democrats and it is noticeable how few internal polls GOP candidates or the NRCC are releasing. The numbers might not be as bad as those of the DCCC polls, but there is no question that House Republicans are facing a disaster while once vulnerable Democratic incumbents (Hill in IN-09) are looking strong. Particularly noteworthy in this batch of surveys is the DCCC’s numbers from Michigan - both Republican incumbents are in big trouble now that the McCain campaign left the state, and any incumbent who polls under 40% is in big trouble, no matter what survey that number is coming from.

That said, two pieces of good news for Republicans: (1) WA-08 remains a disappointment for Democrats, as Research 2000 follows SUSA in finding a comfortable lead for Reichert. Things are not going well for Darcy Burner, who lost by 2% in 2006, as she has high enough name recognition at this point that she cannot benefit from a last minute challenger surge as voters learn about her. It looks like the GOP raised the negatives high enough in 2006 that she is having trouble recovering. (2) There was a point at which AL-02 seemed to be trending for Bobby Bright, but the GOP seems to have closed the gap - and credit to Bright for releasing an internal poll with a very bad trendline for him (-9%).