Campaign Diaries

As expected, few polls were released today, as it makes little sense for pollsters to release surveys conducted before the debate after it happened. The state-level numbers confirm what we have already been observing over the past two weeks: Obama’s surge is particularly strong in blue states. McCain was within striking distance in Minnesota, Wisconsin or New Jersey in mid-September, but Obama posts healthy leads in all three states in polls released today.

But today’s most important numbers are perhaps the tracking polls. For one, they will be used as base numbers to track the post-debate movement (all of the trackings released today were in the field before the debate). Second, after days of moving uniformly and finding very similar results, the tracking polls are showing surprisingly diverging trend lines today. On the one hand, Obama leads by double-digits in two of them: 51% to 41% in Research 2000 and most importantly 52% to 41% in Gallup (this is his biggest lead ever in Gallup’s tracking poll, which started tracking the race back in March). Obama is above above 50% in Rasmussen (51% to 45%). On the other hand, McCain closes the gap in Diego Hotline (45% to 44%, down from a 6% lead two days ago) and Zogby (47% to 45%).

There has been speculation that Hotline’s numbers are due to an unusually tight partisan breakdown of 2%, but their blog indicates that 41% of the sample was Democratic, 36% was Republican - that I believe is the breakdown they have been using for weeks. This could simply be due to an outlier sample on one of Hotline’s nights, or it could be due to some tightening in the race. As of now, the other trackings and state polls are not picking up signs of a McCain rise, but we will obviously be keeping close track of all of this in the coming days. On to the roundup of the day’s presidential polls:

• Obama leads 47% to 40% in an Ipsos/McClatchy national poll. Obama leads by 15% when voters are asked who would do the best job on the economy.

• McCain leads 49% to 46% in a SUSA poll of North Carolina. McCain led by 20% in an early September poll that looks to have been an outlier.

• Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota. He led by 8% in the mid-September Rasmussen poll.

• Obama leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Wisconsin. He led by 2% in mid-September.

• McCain leads 53% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Georgia. He led by the same margin last month.

• Obama leads 53% to 40% in a Farleigh Dickinson poll of New Jersey. He only led by 6% in September.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• Elizabeth Dole manages a 44% to 43% lead in SUSA’s poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. Even though that is well within the MoE, this is her first lead in any poll since September 23rd.

• Pat McCrory leads 46% to 45% in a SUSA poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.

• Saxby Chambliss leads 50% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Georgia’s Senate race. He led by 7% last month.

• Mitch Daniels leads 49% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll of Indiana’s gubernatorial race. He only led by 1% last week.

• Jim Inhofe leads 53% to 40% in a TVPoll survey Oklahoma’s Senate race. The trendline favors Rice, but Inhofe is in command.

• Minnesota Public Radio released a bizarre poll of the Minnesota Senate race to complement the presidential numbers it releases yesterday. From the 29th to the 1st (just before the VP debate), Coleman leads by 9%; in the 3 days after the VP debate, Franken leads by 41% to 37%. MPR attributes this to the financial crisis and the congressional response - but the only intervening event is the Senate’s approving the bailout, which is unlikely to have swung the election by 11%. Furthermore, the margin of error is a large 5% for both sets of results.

• In NJ-03, Monmouth University shows GOP candidate Myers narrowly leading 44% to 41%. Monmouth had Republicans in the lead in NJ-07 yesterday.

• In NH-01, Carol Shea Porter leads 42% to 35% against Jeb Bradley in a St. Anselm poll.

• In CT-04, an old poll (taken from September 22nd to September 26th) has Chris Shays leading 41% to 31% - that’s a lot of undecided voters, an incumbent at 41% is not in good shape and this was only the beginning of the Democrats’ surge in polls.

• In NV-02, a Research 2000 poll finds GOP Rep. Heller leading Jill Derby 48% to 41%. He led 47% to 42% in August.

• In VA-05, GOP Rep. Goode leads Tom Perriello 55% to 42% in a SUSA poll. Goode led by 34% in August, so he lost a lot of ground but he remains firmly in command.

Senate: It’s difficult to know what to make of the Minnesota poll except that the race is volatile and too close to call - but we didn’t need another survey to tell us that. I am unsure why MPR felt the need to divide its sample in two with no apparent reason and small sample sizes. As we already knew, North Carolina’s Senate race is also highly competitive - though this poll certainly finds better news for Dole than the recent PPP survey that had her leading by 9%. As for the Georgia Senate race, it is undoubtedly more competitive than anyone thought it would be but Chambliss retains the advantage. Martin needs very strong African-American turnout and the DSCC’s involvement. He would have had a better shot had Obama stayed in the state.

House: The New Jersey open seats continue to defy expectations and see Republicans doing very well. Is that a product of New Jersey voters’ usual early reluctance to vote Democratic and can Adler and Stender close the deal among (the unusually high number of) undecided voters? As I explained this morning, Adler is now finding himself on the defensive. NH-01 is another interesting poll, as this is the second poll in a row after SUSA’s numbers to find Shea-Porter with a lead outside of the Moe, but she remains well under 50%.