Today’s numbers are perhaps not as dramatic as yesterday’s, but the overall picture is still as rosy for Barack Obama. And it’s not necessarily because of any number in red states: it is his continuous surge in the four blue states (NH, PA, WI and MN) McCain is actively contesting that is the most remarkable.
In Pennsylvania, three new polls show Obama leading by double-digits - between 10% and 15% - a shocking development in a high-priority state in which the GOP is pouring big sums of money. In Minnesota, a survey shows Obama up by 14%. And his lead is in high single-digits in three polls from New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If he sweeps all four (as seems increasingly likely), Obama would be in an extremely favorable position. He would anchor himself at 264 votes, and he would need only one more of the competitive red states.
Today’s polls show how many he would have to choose from: Obama leads outside of the margin of error in Nevada, Colorado and Ohio (any one of which could be decisive) and is ahead within the MoE in Florida, North Carolina, and a second poll from Ohio. And Indiana continues to look highly competitive. Nothing here is as stunning as Obama’s double-digit leads in two Virginia polls yesterday, but these encouraging results nonetheless - and revealing of how much catching up McCain has to do over the next four weeks, starting with tonight’s debate. On to the full round-up:
- The tracking polls show Obama in a dominant position, though Diego Hotline has Obama suddenly “collapsing” to a 2% lead. That does seem like an outlier, however, as all other polls show Obama remaining in a solid position: He leads 51% to 42% in Gallup (+1), 52% to 44% in Rasmussen and 51% to 40% in Research 2000 (-1). And we now have a fifth tracking poll, released by Reuters/Zogby. Its introductory numbers have Obama leading 48% to 45%.
- Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 6% last week.
- Obama leads 52% to 42% in a West Chester University/NPR poll of Pennsylvania.
- Obama leads 54% to 40% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 8% last week and 4% two weeks ago.
- Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Research 2000/Reno Gazette poll of Nevada. He led by 1% in late August.
- Obama leads 49% to 47% in a new Insider Advantage poll of Nevada.
- Obama leads 48% to 46% in Mason Dixon’s poll of Florida. He also led by 2% in a poll taken two weeks ago.
- Obama leads 49% to 43% in a PPP poll of Ohio. McCain led by 4% in early September. Obama has gained among registered Democrats: he is now at 84% (up from 78%).
- Obama leads 48% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll of Ohio, with 3% for Nader and 2% for Barr. In a two-way race, he leads 50% to 47% (he led by 2% three weeks ago).
- Obama leads 49% to 48% in a CNN/Time poll of North Carolina, with 2% for Bob Barr. In a two-way race, the two candidates are tied at 49%. McCain led by 1% three weeks ago.
- Obama leads 50% to 42% in a CNN/Time poll of Wisconsin, with Nader at 4% and Barr at 1%. In a two-race race, he leads 51% to 46% (he led by 3% three weeks ago).
- Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of Wisconsin. Obama gets 90% of the Democratic vote.
- Obama leads 51% to 45% in a new Insider Advantage poll of Colorado. He led by 9% last week.
- Obama leads 51% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll of New Hampshire, with Barr at 3% and Nader at 1%. In a two-way race, Obama leads 53% to 45%.
- McCain leads 48% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of Indiana, with Barr at 5%. In a two-way race, McCain leads 51% to 46% (he led by 6% three weeks ago).
- The candidates are tied at 46% in a Research 2000 poll of Indiana. McCain led led by 1% last week.
- Obama leads 54% to 40% in a Minnesota Public Radio poll of Minnesota taken in the days after the VP debate. In the days before the debate, Obama’s lead was 47% to 43%. The margin of error is a large 5% on the post-debate sample.
- Obama leads 55% to 39% in a SUSA poll of California.
Meanwhile, in down-ballot numbers:
- In a SUSA poll of Proposition 8 in California, the yes has taken a narrow led for the first time - 47% to 42%.
- Ted Stevens captures a 49% to 48% lead in Rasmussen’s latest poll from Alaska’s Senate race. Begich led by 3% in early September and by 13% in late July.
- Beverly Perdue recaptures the lead in the latest PPP poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race. She is ahead 46% to 43%.
- In OH-01, a Research 2000 poll has Democrat Steve Driehaus leading Rep. Steve Chabot 46% to 44%.
- In OH-16, a GOP-held open seat, a Research 2000 poll has Democrat Boccieri leading Schuring 48% to 38%.
- In MI-07, an internal poll for the Schauer campaign shows him leading GOP Rep. Walberg 46% to 36%.
- In PA-11, an internal poll for the Barletta campaign shows him leading Rep. Kanjorski 47% to 39%. The previous Barletta poll had him ahead by 4%.
Statewide: SUSA has shown Proposition 8 has a higher chance of passing than in PPIC’s polls, but this is the first time the “yes” vote has been ahead in any survey that I am aware of - a reminder that this is very much a high stakes battle. Both parties have some good news, as Beverly Perdue and Ted Stevens are showing signs of life. But it is important to remember that the Alaska Senate race now looks entirely dependent on his trial verdict. If it is a tie now, Stevens would probably lose if found guilty and probably survive if acquitted.
House: More independent House polls, raising the number to 13 today! And the numbers are encouraging for Democrats: OH-16 is rated lean take-over in my rating, but it remains highly competitive, so it is good for Boccieri to open up some space. OH-01 and MI-07 are both GOP-held districts that are rated toss-ups, but both incumbents are in precarious positions if these numbers are to be believed. As for PA-11, Democratic Rep. Kanjorski is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and this is one of only three Dem-held districts that are currently rated lean take-over, so Barletta’s numbers confirm what we have been seeing over the past few months.
October 7, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Obama’s support has always been weak. he is getting Democrats now but he has been very weak in that group for months and many will go to Mcccain once Ayers and Wright become a bigger issue. though McCain is running such a bad campaign i’m not sure anymore.
October 7, 2008 at 6:43 pm
First of all, on the SUSA poll, unless I am reading it wrong it is completely absurd.
It is showing that in 18-34 53% are voting YES (anti-equality) while only 39% are voting NO (pro-equality).
I don’t know about California, but here in Michigan the 18-34 crowd tends to support LBGT rights more-so than the 50-64.
Also, Pat ‘08 I thoroughly disagree with you. This election has had two of the most supported candidates in modern history: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The only problem is that they are in the same party. But the vast, vast majority of those who supported Hillary are going to vote for Obama.
And Hillary tried to weaken Obama with Ayers and Wright, and the media jumped on it and ate it up. The media doesn’t seem to give a hoot about it this time around because they know it didn’t work then and it won’t work now.
Those who are buying into the propaganda spouting from Palin have already signed their soul to her campaign. Most moderates are going to pay more attention to the economy, the war, health-care, education, decency, etc.
October 7, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Pat08, it helps your argument to cite specific facts or reasoning to support summary statements of opinion.
As for changing the narrative, I don’t think the Ayers thing will have much legs. It may chip away a few wavering votes, but not enough to shift the odds.
People in public life find themselves serving on boards with all kinds of people, and Ayers reckless behavior is long since past him. I’ve served on boards with a any number of fellow board members. I know some pretty well, and don’t know a whole lot about others. I certainly don’t run background checks to see if there’s something nasty in their past before I accept the appointment. What I do check out is the reputation and mission of the organization I’m joining. In Obama’s case, the organization’s credentials were impeccable.
McCain would need to find something new that the media hasn’t chewed over, and despite some wild ravings from the lunatic Right (Larry Sinclair, anyone?), there doesn’t seem to be any there there.
October 8, 2008 at 8:29 am
This past Saturday I was canvassing in Scranton for Obama with my union and worked in district 11. While I found much support for Obama-Biden, I found almost NO support for Kanjorksi. In fact, the vast majority of folks I spoke with were vehemently opposed to his re-election. I was actually shocked at the visceral dislike so many people exhibited against him. Since I live in New Jersey, I was not that familiar with him or his record, so I had to inquire why people were so upset. It seems that his positions on immigration and also giving jobs to family members are doing him in. I wouldn’t put money on Kanjorski pulling this out, based on what I heard from people who were more than willing to split their tickets, voting for Obama for President, and “Lou” for Congress.