Four years ago, outside groups played a much greater role in running TV advertisements and organizing on the ground. Such independent efforts are surprisingly not a major part of this year’s election, forcing the campaigns to do most of the grunt work themselves.
That said, there are a few noticeable third-party investments going on right now. That is particularly the case with labor groups, always a major part of the Democrats’ organizing efforts. Unions are sending out mailers and handing out fliers hitting McCain on the economy, and their field efforts are a crucial part of Obama’s efforts to reach out to voters who might be reluctant to vote for the Democrat for racial reasons (the Los Angeles Times’s week-end piece on the race factor in Virginia and on Obama’s efforts to counter it is certainly worth a read).
Now, SEIU is up with what they describe as a seven-figure buy featuring two women discussing rising health care costs:
The spot attempts to capture voter anxiety about the economy, and channel it on an issue in which Democrats enjoy a particularly large advantage (health care). Obama himself has made this a focus of his attacks on the Arizona Senator over the past few days. Meanwhile, the AFL-CIO is sending this new flier blasting McCain as an “economic disaster for the middle class” to one million households.
McCain is getting some help as well, as the NRA continues its anti-Obama efforts with a new spot accusing Obama of wanting to ban firearms. The NRA has said its total investment would be in the eight-figure, certainly enough to have an impact in some swing states. Their new ad tries to raise voters’ worries over crime:
In down-the-ballot races, independent expenditures obviously have the potential to have even greater impact, as the candidates and the national committees do not always have that much money to spend. Furthermore, outside groups have to choose which races to concentrate in, and their spending decisions can tell us a lot about which contests are the most competitive.
In CO-04, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just spent $650,000 on a new attack ad aimed at Maryln Musgrave. That is a very serious investment, especially as it comes on top of hundreds of thousands of dollars DWAF had already poured in the race, and it ensures that the ad will have a real presence in the district. Interestingly, this new ad is not devoted to environmental issues (despite DWAF’s attack ad against Sarah Palin on the subject of aerial hunting of wolves); rather, it goes after Musgrave’s ties to oil companies and accuses her of corruption - accusations that Democrats have been airing in the past few cycles and that are also the topic of the latest ad by Musgrave’s Democratic opponent.
Meanwhile, Republican group Freedom’s Watch is moving in North Carolina to attack Kay Hagan’s fiscal record in the state legislature. Like the other ads I highlighted in this post, this is a significant buy and it is not just meant for cable TV shows and for earned media. Politico was told by Freedom’s Watch that it cost “well over $750,000:”
Interestingly, the ad does not make any new charges against Hagan and recycles the NRSC’s attack ads, despite the fact that independent groups have an opportunity to air tougher ads since the spots are not directly funded by candidate. That said, this is not necessarily a bad thing, as it always Republicans to hammer one theme from all directions and ensure that the attacks really sink in voters’ mind. Furthermore, North Carolina voters are clearly unhappy with the Democrats of the state government as Beverly Perdue’s weakness in the gubernatorial race demonstrates. Tagging Hagan to local Democratic governance could be an effective strategy for the GOP.
Meanwhile, the NRCC is the only group that is being left out of the action. They bought air time in two districts last week (WA-08 and PA-03), but 29 days from the election they have still been unable to budget any further ad investments. They did send out direct mail in a few districts over the week-end however (NJ-03, OH-15, MI-07, all GOP-held and highly vulnerable seats), and mailers can certainly be expensive (between $10,000 and $30,000 in these three cases).
Today I received two pieces of mail decrying Kay Hagan - one from a building contractors alliance in Virginia and the other from the Republican Committee. The GOP committee piece said that Hagan had received money from someone who is part of the Godless America PAC who want to ban Christmas. Therefore how can Hagan represent “North Carolinian Values”. How pathetic these attacks are. Obviously Dole is worried.