Campaign Diaries

In the first two weeks after the GOP convention, the party’s brand looked to have improved enough to boost the prospects of congressional Republicans. At the very least, it seemed that the long-shot down-the-ballot races (be it the Kentucky and Georgia Senate races or the conservative open seats like MO-09 and AL-02) were getting out of reach for Democrats. But the Republicans’ recovery was short lived.

The financial meltdown erased the GOP’s early September gains, and the fundamentals once again favor Democrats. We are back to where we were after the spring’s three special election: Democrats are in a position to score big gains on Election Day, and districts that would not be competitive in a neutral environment could now fall in Democratic hands.

It is no surprise, then, that Democrats are in a far stronger position in these new ratings. 10 GOP-held districts are now rated likely or lean take-over, and 24 more can best be described as toss-ups (that might reflect my shyness to give a more precise prognostic, but it is often difficult to better categorize competitive House races due to the dearth of polling data). However, it is highly unlikely that Democrats can pull off their 2006 feat, when they didn’t lose a single seat of their own: 3 Dem-held seats are currently rated lean take-over, and 8 are toss-ups.

That said, the battle is clearly being waged on Republican turf (34 GOP seats and 11 Democratic seats are highly vulnerable right now) and it could still worsen, as the field of play is shifting towards Democrats. Today, 11 GOP-held seats have been upgraded to a more vulnerable category, versus only 3 for Democrats; 10 Dem-held have been downgraded, versus only 2 for Republicans.

If the Republicans’ situation does not improve over the next four weeks, there is no telling just how low the GOP could sink.

To make matters worse for the GOP, the financial disparity between the DCCC and RNCC is proving to be just as decisive as Republicans feared - and this is an advantage Democrats did not enjoy two years ago. Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC has already flexed its financial muscle by pouring in hundreds of thousands in dozens of districts.

They are strengthening vulnerable Democratic incumbents, and they are targeting many GOP-held seats, some of which are obviously competitive (IL-11, OH-15, OH-16, NJ-03…), some of which shouldn’t even be on the map (MD-01, AL-02, KY-02, AZ-03…). Meanwhile, the NRCC has only been able to budget expenditures in two districts - WI-08 and PA-03.

In no state have Republican fortunes deteriorated more than in the Sunshine State, which has emerged as ground zero of the House battle. No less than 5 Florida districts are currently rated lean toss-ups! One is held by Democrats (FL-16) and four by Republicans (FL-08, FL-21, FL-24 and FL-25); Democrats have an outside (though fading) chance in FL-13 and FL-18. It goes without saying that the state of the presidential race and the strength of Obama and McCain’s ground game could have an out-sized effect on all of these House races. That Obama now appears to be inching ahead in this state should boost Democratic hopes of picking-up a number of these seats.

In fact, the trickle-down effects of the presidential race will be felt in most of the districts that are listed here. If McCain manages to bring independents back in the GOP’s column and benefits from conservative turnout, it could save a number of seats that are now looking very endangered - but that is not where current trends are heading.

Continue reading the latest House ratings, with race-by-race analysis, here.

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Here is an overview of the current situation:

• Likely/Safe Democratic: 209 seats
• Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 235 seats
• Toss-ups: 32 seats
• Lean/Likely Safe Republican: 168 seats
• Likely/Safe Republican: 159 seats

And a quick look at the races that have moved since my August ratings:

• Less vulnerable Democratic seats: CT-02, CT-05, IL-08, IN-07, IN-09, KS-03, MN-01, NY-19, PA-04, PA-10
• Less vulnerable Republican seats: FL-13, IL-18

• More vulnerable Democratic seats: NH-01, PA-11, WI-08
• More vulnerable Republican seats: AK-AL, AZ-03, CO-04, FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, ID-01, LA-04, MD-01, TX-10

• Taken off the list: CT-02, IN-02, IN-07, NY-19

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History of House ratings:

• August: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the top tier in play?
• June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
• February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
• November: How many more Republican retirements?
• October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
• September: Democrats poised to keep majority