Comments on: GOP sinks in coastal South: Obama ahead in FL, biggest leads yet in VA, NC; Dole, Chambliss fall

By: Daily tracking polls update, 6 October | Observationalism

Daily tracking polls update, 6 October | Observationalism — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:58:41 +0000

[...] lieu of a proper update on those numbers, however, I’m just going to link to today’s update at Campaigndiaries.com. It does an excellent job illustrating the width and depth of the change manifesting itself in the [...]

By: fritz

fritz — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:45:16 +0000

Wow! This is probably the best polling day for Obama in the race. This looks more and more like it’s over every day.
Here are a few random notes:
The McCain campaign is a mess with no seeming strategy; just throwing stuff at the wall to see if anything sticks.
More bad news is on the way. The bailout/rescue has not taken and the credit market s are still stuck. This is very bad as much more money will now have to be pumped into the system. It will be interesting to see how Obama and particularly McCain play this out.
Palin is the loosest of cannons and it is only a matter of time before she goes way off the reservation and says something that will require major damage control.
The last thing that happens soon is the release of the Ollie Stone biopic “W” on Oct.17th. I know it seems a trivial thing in these times of economic crisis but this will be a big story for a few days and the constant playing of clips and discussion of the pros & cons of the movie will dominate the media for a number of news cycles. There is nothing the media loves more than great video to back up the he said she said. At the very least it will rehash the past eight years under Bush and bring up how bad his leadership has been. I’ve seen a few trailers and it looks like a great flick.

By: dsimon

dsimon — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:33:17 +0000

Once Obama solidified the Democratic base he was pretty assured of victory (assuming Independents split near equally).

After the Palin pick, someone at one of the Democratic national party committees said something like: “If they want to run a play-to-the-base campaign, that’s fine with me; there’s more of us than them now.”

Seems like a big mistake to not play for the moderates when the base “brand” is so unpopular. It seems that McCain tried a strange hybrid where he goes for moderates and Palin claims she’s a “maverick” with a knowing wink to the right wingers. But if they can’t differentiate their policy from what we already have, then the play-to-the-center ploy won’t work, and they’re left with a base strategy. Rovian ploys backfired in 2006, and it doesn’t look any more successful this time.

By: Guy

Guy — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 00:22:28 +0000

Once Obama solidified the Democratic base he was pretty assured of victory (assuming Independents split near equally). Given his emphasis on Healthcare and the Economy it is not a surprise he has solidified the base. Also the selection of Palin helped Obama solidify his base - three Dem leaning Independents in NC I work with have said that the selection of Palin made them much more likely to vote Obama. Obviously anecdotal but.

The poll result that 35% of voters are concerned about Obama’s “associations” could well just be hardcore Republicans. Therefore not much to worry about since 10%of the population believe he is a Muslim and some people will not change their minds even when shown facts.
McCain’s attack on Ayers has fallen flat due to the stock market drops today, then the news coverage moves to the debate and then onwards. Unless McCain mentions these association tomorrow they will be forgotten.

By: dannity

dannity — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 23:57:08 +0000

If Obama is pulling 85% of Democrats in Ohio, he’s in very good shape.

Outstanding numbers across the board today. 29 days left, no there’s nothing to get cocky about, but this is great position to be in moving into the final weeks. New Mexico’s still a bit tighter than I’d hoped given Obama’s national strength (which was why McCain was there today), and I’d love to see some new numbers from Indiana and Nevada and hell, even West Virginia, but all in all….wow!

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:18:10 +0000

Rasmussen just can’t show obama ahead in Ohio.
I think their partisan breakdown must somehow be off. They said Obama gets 85% of Dems and half of unaffiliated voters.
Even with McCain getting 90% of Republicans, Obama should be at least a little bit ahead.