Campaign Diaries

Maine: While Maine is less Democratic than other New England states, it remains liberal enough that Democrats were hoping Susan Collins would be hurt by Bush’s unpopularity and the damage done to the GOP brand. That has not happened. A month from Election Day, no polls have shown any sign that Collins is vulnerable, but that is not preventing Democrats from trying to pull this race into the top-tier.

Maine is a relatively inexpensive state to advertise in, which might explain the DSCC’s decision to go up on air against the incumbent Senator with an ad blaming her for the lack of Senate oversight over the Iraq War:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0TRSGX9Ivo"]

To complement the DSCC’s ad, Tom Allen released a spot attacking Collins’ for her proximity to Bush on economic policies:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuUnFPMq1Es"]

In a race that long remained remarkably drama-free, Democrats are looking to take the gloves off. With four weeks, they will need to hit all the right notes if they want to have any hope of making this race competitive - let alone actually win it. So Collins remains heavily favored for now, but the DSCC’s willingness to go after her suggests that we could still see some movements. We will hopefully get some polling numbers to reflect soon to determine whether the economic crisis and Democratic attacks are hurting the Republican.

Oregon: Gordon Smith does it again. After releasing various ads tying himself to Democratic state lawmakers, to Barack Obama and to John Kerry, the Oregon Republican continues his efforts to portray himself as a bipartisan and moderate Senator with a new spot that highlights his cooperation with Ted Kennedy to pass a bill against hate crimes after Matthew Shepard’s death:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHK2VAOE8hU"]

Smith is not in very good shape, as the Republican label has taken another hit in recent weeks just as he was trying to do his best to distance himself from it. To make matters worse, Oregon’s vote is conducted entirely by mail, which means that this is one state in which voters who are still persuadable are sure to vote before Election Day - and some might be sending in their decision as we speak, in the midst of an economic crisis that helps Jeff Merkley wage the battle on a turf that is more favorable to him.

Attack ads in Kentucky, Colorado and New Hampshire: Business continues as usual in three hotly contested Senate races in which heavy artillery has been deployed in recent weeks. In New Hampshire, a new NRSC ad hits Jeanne Shaheen with ethical charges, accusing her of taking money in exchange of political favors (most of the press clips are taken from the conservative Union Leader):

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VctITySKaCs"]

While Shaheen remains narrowly in the lead in the Granite State, the race has clearly tightened due to a wave of Republican ads that tout Sununu’s achievements while hitting Shaheen’s gubernatorial record. This is among the hardest hitting attack ads the NRSC has launched at Shaheen.

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, Mitch McConnell and Bruce Lunsford have been hurling insults at each other for months. Earlier this week, I wrote about an ad Lunsford released in which a veteran blasted McConnell for twisting his words. McConnell is back with a follow-up that pursues a story Republicans believe is Lunsford’s biggest vulnerability - reports of patients being mistreated at Lunsford’s health care facility:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=813UV-4wv5c"]

New attack ads are also running in other races, including Colorado, a competitive contest I admit we only rarely talk about. The DSCC’s latest spot blasts Schaffer for supporting Bush’s economic policies. “Bush is leaving Washington,” says the ad, “why should we send Schaffer back?” That’s a clever line for Democrats to go around the Republicans’ counter that the Democrats’ focus on Bush suggests they are stuck in the past (as Palin repeated on Thursday night).

North Carolina: Who would have thought just two months ago that Elizabeth Dole could possibly be this vulnerable? It was only in mid-July that it became clear that Democrats were fully committed to making this race their 9th target; now, Kay Hagan looks to be in a stronger position than Democratic candidates in races that were once ranked far higher - including Al Franken or Ronnie Musgrove. And while the race is still very much a toss-up, Republican operatives are sounding shockingly pessimistic in a new Politico story:

“A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina… Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. ‘There’s no point in even counting the votes,’ said a top McCain official.”

This could certainly be an attempt to spin Democrats into complacency - or it might reflect the GOP’s genuine concern that something is going deeply wrong in North Carolina’s federal races.