Campaign Diaries

In truly stunning news that underscores just how much the state of play has deteriorated for the GOP over the past three weeks, Politico’s Jonathan Martin reports that the McCain campaign is pulling out of Michigan - no more TV ads, no more mailers and staff relocated to other states. A campaign event scheduled for next week has been canceled.

There is no possible spin that could obscure how worrisome a development this is for McCain. Obama’s weakness among blue collar voters, the large numbers of Reagan Democrats in the Detroit suburbs, the racial tensions in the state and a combination of other factors conspired to make Michigan a prime pick-up for Republicans. Obama’s poll numbers were weak throughout the spring, and it looked like Michigan had replaced Pennsylvania as the most vulnerable blue state. This is the first state McCain and Palin visited after the GOP convention, after all!

But the campaign’s sudden turn to the economy has undercut McCain’s momentum everywhere in the country - particularly in Michigan, where recent polls have shown Obama jumping to large lead. Just this morning, PPP found the Democrat leading by 10%, up from a 1% lead at the beginning of September. And the reason the McCain campaign’s move is so significant is that it makes the Obama surge permanent. The GOP did not wait to see whether the economy would recede as an issue and whether McCain could regain its footing - they went ahead and cut resources and staffing for one of the hottest battleground states. (Note that nothing prevents the campaign to return to the state if the race tightens, but they would certainly have lost a lot of ground in the meantime.)

We can no longer say that the pendulum could swing back towards McCain and have everything return to pre-convention form. Even if McCain regains his footing and tightens the election, the Michigan pull-out will remain as a major consequence of Obama’s late September gains.

So why would Republicans do this? The answer is obvious: money and time. One of the most important of the 8 questions I outlined last night was whether McCain would have to cut funding to some battleground states in order to defend Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina? I didn’t expect we would get an answer within 24 hours. Republicans were not expecting to have to defend this many red states in October. Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, perhaps even Florida, sure. But having to spend precious campaign time and resources in those three other traditionally reliable red states while also keeping up investments in five blue states?

The Michigan pull-out is a direct consequence of that. The Wolverine State, after all, is an expensive investment. It spans many different media market, including Detroit’s and it requires a lot of staff. Instead, Time is now reporting the McCain campaign is considering investing in… Maine, an inexpensive state which awards its electoral colleges by district, so the GOP might be hoping to at least snatch away one vote there.

What does this mean about the electoral college map? Simply put, it makes it much more difficult for McCain to find a path to 270 electoral votes, and he has no more room for error. Obama now appears comfortably ahead in Iowa and New Mexico, which puts him one red state away from victory. So McCain needs to either sweep all remaining red states (how likely does it sound at the moment that McCain can win all CO, FL, OH, MO, NC, VA, IN and NV) or win at least one blue state. With Michigan out of the picture, that doesn’t leave McCain many options.

New Hampshire (and Maine, if McCain really decides to go there) is too small to be an answer to anything but Nevada, so Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania remain. Neither of these three states appeared as promising as Michigan up until late August, when they all appeared to tighten. Obama has opened a comfortable lead in each of them recently - but McCain needs to stay on the offensive in them.

He also needs to beef up his defense in red states. Even if he picks up a Kerry state, he will need a near-sweep of the battleground red states, and shifting his attention away from Michigan will surely be a way to more effectively defend states like Florida and Virginia. In the latter, the McCain campaign has just opened a dozen new offices. In the former, A much discussed St. Petersburg Times article published today reveals that state Republican officials held a secret meeting this week to discuss the state of the McCain and their worries at what they see as insufficient preparation.

Update: Politico confirms that McCain is now eyeing (and moving staff to) Maine, in an effort to pick up one electoral vote in ME-02. Al Gore won that district by 3%, and John Kerry by 6%. In 2004, Bush ran 5% better in this district than statewide, and recent polls have shown that McCain is close enough statewide that he should indeed be within striking range in ME-02.