Many had assumed that Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers would be the star of Republican advertisements throughout the summer. That didn’t happen, it’s now October and we’re still waiting for the Wright bombshell to drop - but will it ever? We might be seeing the first hints of such a move.
An independent group aired an ad campaign starring Ayers in late August, and another independent group, the Judicial Confirmation Network, has just released a spot tying Obama to Rezko, Ayers and Wright. The group says it will spend $1 million airing the ad in relatively inexpensive media markets across Ohio and Michigan, so this could very well be seen by voters in key swing states:
But $1 million will not get the job done against a candidate who still has high favorability ratings. In the absence of powerful outside groups, McCain and the RNC would have to take it upon themselves to attack Obama for his connection to Wright - something they have not approached for now, though Politico reports that many GOP activists and state party leaders are urging McCain to be more aggressive and start using those attacks.
Has the McCain campaign done a conscious decision to not invoke Rev. Wright, or are they simply waiting to unleash a torrent of negative ads in the last stretch of the election? And even if the former, can McCain really resist doing so if he continues to lag so far behind? After all, he is now trailing by substantive margins and there are very few opportunities left for him to change the momentum. To be fair to McCain, however - and this is certainly important to note - there is no evidence that his campaign has been looking to bring up Wright.
But do any of this actually matter? We are now in early October, five weeks from the election. Early voting started two weeks ago in some states: Is it not already too late for Wright and Ayers to make an impact, and was the moment to step in and attempt to define Obama not during the summer?
A crucial thing to remember here is that neither Wright nor Ayers will be fresh revelations, and neither can save McCain at the 11th hour like George W. Bush’s DUI scoop breaking in the final days of the 2000 campaign. The GOP cannot expect to just invoke Wright and ignite a media firestorm overnight. This is not to say that Wright in particular will not hurt Obama, but simply that it would take time for the GOP to damage him using this. He would need to relentlessly pound Obama in order to disqualify him, and he cannot simply drop an ad buy on October 25th.
One thing that might be holding back McCain is that the Obama campaign must have response ads stored up, ready to be launched at the minute Wright is used in a McCain or RNC spot. And just as Obama has connections McCain is not exploiting, so does Obama - the Keating Five has barely been mentioned all year even though the scandal nearly destroyed McCain’s career. And while it might seem like it dates too far back to be relevant, the recent financial crisis has made it as relevant as it could be - and if the candidates launch Ayers/Keating ads against each other, they would be hard pressed to make the “old news” argument.
An independent group (Public Campaign Fund) has just produced an ad hitting McCain on Keating, but it doesn’t look like this group will have much money to air this spot (while the Judicial Confirmation Network at least has some strength to put behind its buy). The ad is also rather confusing, testifying to the problem that Keating is a confusing enough scandal that it is hard to fit in a 30-second spot - and it’s not like most voters remember the details of the controversy.
(And speaking of ads by independent groups, this spot by the California Nurses Association raises the possibility Sarah Palin might be president with a “one heartbeat away” ad that is anything but subtle. And whatever you think of the argument - and it’s doubtful any voter will ever see the ad - the production value is shockingly low.)
Coming up later today - eight other questions that will matter in the final stretch of the election.
October 1, 2008 at 1:40 pm
This ad probably will not move the electorate at all. Right now most people are concerned about the economy and how the economy’s downturn will affect their lives. The people that would view this ad as a negative against Obama probably were already voting for McCain.
McCain (or the 527’s) should focus on Obama’s past voting record, but that may be a disaster for him. Specifically, Obama voted “present” on many votes while a State Senator in Illinois. If McCain could put Obama on the defensive, he might be able to sway voters.
Bottom line is that this ad is a scare tactic and a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding of McCain’s fledging campaign.
October 1, 2008 at 2:09 pm
McCain could easily encounter a backlash if he goes negative. Not just because the campaign is now focused on “real” issues but because there is the narrative of McCain being overly negative and stretching the truth. First the flap a few weeks back with some ads (like the sex eductaion one) and then in the debate where many more people thought (in polls) that McCain was negative and condescending.
McCain is in trouble now because he was hoping to refine the field of states to visit and spend money in. Instead his playing field has widened and he has only a fixed pot of money and he and Palin have to campaign together so they do not cover much ground.
McCainw as probably hoping not to have to fit over IN, FL and NC. Obama needs none of them but because they are so close or Obama is in the lead McCain cannot afford to not contest them. He will also have to scale back the offense - he had hoped to put MI, WI, MN and PA in play - now maybe only one will be.
October 1, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Something just went wrong with McCain’s face on national TV:
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/something-just-went-wrong-with-mccains.html
October 1, 2008 at 3:22 pm
There is also the question of whether the MSM will run ads that are over the top. I note the cable nets refused or pulled down after people complained an ad about McCain’s medical records. This gives some cover to the MSM; but not FOX ; to not run virilant anti Obama ads.
October 1, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Maybe there’s a little bit of Mutual Assured Destruction doctrine going on. Obama has the Keating Five deterrent if McCain brings up Reverent Wright, and McCain has Reverend Wright as a deterrent if Obama brings up the Keating Five.
Of course, I’d like to think that neither issue is being used because both candidates know that they’re essentially irrelevant to this election. But the way this campaign has gone, there’s a right to be skeptical of both candidates’ motives.
October 2, 2008 at 7:38 am
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October 6, 2008 at 1:09 pm
How can people think that Wright and Ayers are irrelevant? Or that the person that wants to be commander in chief doesn’t know to not keep company with people like Ayers and Wright. Yes, the Keating incident does look bad for McCain, but it seems to not be as detrimental as Obama’s ties to terrorist organizations, Wright and the whole ACORN thing. The fact that Obama distanced himself from Ayers and Wright AFTER he decided to run for president is something I can’t beleive people don’t see as questionable. Obama’s past is a mystery while McCain can answer for everything in his past and is not trying to deny that he did things that he now wishes he had not. I think it says something about a person who is willing to stand up and say when they were wrong. It definitely sends red flags up when a person tries to deflect and try to point more fingers instead of answering questions truthfully about his past.
October 20, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Go ahead, McCain, bring up Wright. It will sink your campaign forever and look totally desperate. Nobody cares about a ranting old pastor. What Wright went through during the 60s its not at all surprising he is bitter. The public will not fall for these scare tactics.
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November 8, 2008 at 2:15 pm
[...] on him, then pulling back. If McCain goes back to the Wright issue, Obama can not only target McCain’s Keating history but, even more apropos, Palin’s equally long connection to a total whackaloon end-times [...]