[Updated with two more Obama leads in Florida] In the heels of the stunningly large leads Obama posted in the latest Quinnipiac polls, new surveys confirm that the situation is rapidly deteriorating for Republicans up and down the ballot as a perfect storm is boosting Democratic prospects.
While it is still too early to move any red states other than Iowa and New Mexico to the Obama column, the Democrat appears to have solidified his position in the states he is defending. A number of Michigan and Pennsylvania surveys released over the past week (including two early this morning) have Obama leading by high single-digits, and a new CNN survey finds him comfortably ahead in Minnesota and Strategic Vision shows him gaining in Wisconsin. Even if McCain regains his footing in red states in which he is slipping, does he still have an opening in those blue states or can Obama now lock them away?
The answer to that question could very well determine the result of the election: if McCain cannot even force Obama to worry about Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he would have to pull out an impressive (and at the moment highly unlikely) sweep of Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado! Right now, the question is McCain can even save half of those, let alone all of them.
New CNN/Time polls find him jumping to leads outside of the MoE in Florida and Virginia as well as taking an edge (within the MoE) in Nevada and… Missouri. The situation is particularly worrisome for McCain in Florida, where two other surveys this evening find Obama in the lead, making it five polls in a row, four of which were released today (PPP, Q-pac, CNN, Insider Advantage, Suffolk).
When combined with Q-pac, this roundup of the presidential polls is certainly the worst installment McCain has received in the general election. And what is remarkable is that Obama is breaking 50% in most polls that are being released - he was above that threshold in all three Q-pac polls today and here again in CNN’s polls of NV, VA, FL and MN. He is also at or above 50% in the Time, Rasmussen and Research 2000 national polls:
- Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Florida (polling history). In a five-way race, Obama leads by 8% (just like the Quinnipiac survey), with 3% for Ralph Nader. Two weeks ago, the candidates were tied in a two-way race and Obama led in a five-way race. All CNN/Time polls were taken Sunday through Tuesday.
- Obama leads 49% to 46% in an Insider Advantage poll of Florida. Obama trailed by 8% three weeks ago, so this is quite a swing in his direction.
- Obama leads 46% to 42% in a Suffolk poll of Florida.
- Obama leads 48% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Missouri (polling history). McCain led by 5% three weeks ago.
- Obama leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of Virginia (polling history). McCain led by 4% three weeks ago. Obama leads by 10% in a five-way race!
- Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Nevada (polling history). Obama led by 5% in a late August CNN/Time poll. The margin of error is 4%.
- Obama leads 48% to 47% in an Insider Advantage poll of Nevada. He trailed by 1% three weeks ago.
- Obama leads 54% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll of Minnesota (polling history). Obama already led by double-digits in the previous CNN poll taken before the GOP convention.
- Obama leads 49% to 40% in a Strategic Vision poll of Wisconsin. He led by 3% at the beginning of September.
- News from safer states: Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 64% to 34% in a SUSA poll of Oklahoma. McCain leads 58% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Tennessee. McCain leads by 9% for the fourth poll in a row in a Rasmussen poll of Texas. And some movement towards Obama in Mississippi, where McCain leads 52% to 44%.
Obama also maintains his advantage in national polls, with 3 non-tracking polls finding him ahead by 7%.
- In the trackings, he leads by 10% in Research 2000, 6% in Rasmussen, 5% in Diego Hotline and 4% in Gallup (the Gallup poll has tightened by 4% in two days, rare good news for the Republican nominee).
- Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Time national poll.
- Obama leads 49% to 43% in a Pew national poll. Obama led by 2% in mid-September.
- Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Democracy Corps national poll. He led by 3% last week.
- Obama leads 46% to 42% in an Ipsos/McClatchy national poll. The race was tied three weeks ago.
- Obama leads 48% to 41% in an AP national poll. The most shocking internal here is Sarah Palin’s fall: 41% said she had the right experience last month, 25% say the same today.
Republicans are also in trouble in down-the-ballot races:
- In Mississippi’s Senate race (polling history), the new Rasmussen poll finds Sen. Roger Wicker leading 49% to 47%, but this is the first time since mid-July that Musgrove is within the margin of error.
- In the Texas Senate race, Sen. Cornyn leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega 50% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen poll.
- In the Oklahoma Senate race, Sen. Inhofe leads Democratic challenger Andrew Rice 53% to 37%, a very slight tightening since SUSA’s previous poll.
- In PA-03, a SUSA poll finds Rep. English trailing challenger Kathy Dahlkemper 49% to 45%.
- In conservative district NM-02, an internal poll for the Teague campaign finds the Democrat leading Ed Tinsley 46% to 41%.
- In CA-04, the GOP candidate McClintock released a poll finding him solidly in command, 47% to 39%. This comes a day after Democratic candidate Charlie Brown released a survey showing him in the lead.
The contrasting results in CA-04 remind us that internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt, though the mere fact that Democrats are this competitive in NM-02 and CA-04 (both very Republican district) is exciting news for the DCCC. But SUSA’s poll is an independent survey and it removes any doubt that PA-03 has become a somewhat unlikely battleground. While Rep. English was long viewed as vulnerable, few people would have expected him a few months ago to be this endangered a month from the election. Consider that this is the first district the NRCC has invested in as of last night (more about that later)!
As for Senate, Cornyn was already exhibiting signs of vulnerability months ago, but Democrats made little noise about this race. This is one race that the DSCC would really need to invest in for Noriega to have any chance, and the size of the Texas makes it too expensive a contest for Democrats to just drop in and just test Cornyn’s strength. If Democrats are looking to continue expanding the field of play, Georgia and Kentucky look like more promising options.
Taniel will have further insights,but the numbers are shocking. Obama is leading in NV (+4), FL (+4), MO (+1), MN (+11) and VA (+9). MOE is 3.5-4.0.
Compared to other polls, MN was ranging from +2 to +8 (but old polls); VA, from +3 to +6; FL from +4 to +8; MO from -1 to -2 (again, old); and NV, -2 (others were older). There seems to be something going on.
I’m searching my memory for the last time a presidential candidate’s numbers collapsed this dramatically within 4-5 weeks of the election day. This may reflect a burst of resentment, triggered by the economic crisis, so let’s see how this graphs out over the next 7 days.
Zoot, you may have a point about the credit crisis. But, that may only be part of it. The Pallin pick and the presidential debate may also play a factor.Zoot, what say you?
Gallup always closes in the middle week only to open up again by the end of the week.
This poll momentum for Obama could simply signal the slow-motion implosion of the McCain campaign. Folks are starting to see through–or be insulted by–McCain’s negative ads and his camp’s continued defense of some of the false claims made therein.
Poll results from the past few days are reassuring for Obama, especially since early voting has begun or will soon begin in many states.
But anything can happen in the next 30 days.
Zoot, in your memory, has a trailing candidate been able to come from behind to win with so little time before the election?
Gallup says they polled 8-28 through 8-30. AP shows a 7 point spread nationally.(http://tinyurl.com/3np8q4) AP closed on Tuesday and has an MOE of 2.9-3.4.
McCain is sharpening up his personal attacks. He’s back to Obama putting Obama first, not country. So much for the campaign on the issues. The old gent is really getting tiresome. Meanwhile, Wick Allison (f0rmer National Review editor) has now endorsed Obama. (http://tinyurl.com/4fsbe9).
Strange days.
I haven’t had time to find comprehensive polling data for prior elections, but Gallup did a study in July that showed the swing in prior races from July to the GE.
In 1976, Carter went from +33 to +2, close to a total collapse, but probably affected by the Watergate and pardon issues, which faded a bit by election day.
Dukakis went from +8 to -6 over the same time period in 1988, and HW went from +7 to -5.5 in 1992. What I can’t find is when the deterioration began and how rapidly it accrued. McCain was matching or slightly edging Barack from 9-8 through 9-16, following the GOP convention, and even more, was polling strongly in key states, including MI (well within the MOE from 9-10 through 9-16).
Perhaps what makes this stand out is not just the numbers, but the high profile gaffes and unanticipated events associated with these swings. - Couric, the economy, parachuting into the bail-out discussions, etc. He certainly can recover, but he’s fast running out of time.
Just 2-3 weeks ago people were saying why cannot Obama put the election away - well how things change. Yes there are 4.5 weeks to go and things will probably tighten but Obama has strengthened everywhere. If McCain is only leading by 9 in Texas and 8 in Mississippi (never mind the tightening in Kentucky and WV) then he is in real trouble.
Some will say things can change and that is true but time is ticking by, voting has started in many states and back in 2006 the Dems rode the wave for a long time. Remember Karl Rove thought the GOP would hold congress and he was completely wrong. He thought things would shift back to a tie.
The best hope for McCain is that the bailout bill passes and shores up the finacial and loan markets, making the ecnonmy seem less important and mabye making foreign policy or character issues become forefront again. Because if the ecnomcy is the main issue the rest of the election, McCain probably won’t be able to win. It is also clear that McCain needs to win at least one medium to large Kerry state in order to win the election (winning New Hampshire would only help minimally). Winning Wisconsin or Minnesota, or especially Michigan and Pennslyvania would give McCain alot of breathing room in the electoral college count, but if he can’t win any of those states (or even worse, can’t make it close) then as Taniel says McCain is going to have a very hard time.
The economy may fade from being so central in the next few days, assuming the bail outpasses by Friday. However at that point there are 4 weeks left and the election will still be a sombre affair - not the trivia of the summer (lipstick, celebrity etc). Obama wins on issues plus his debate performance plus his handling of the economic issue has made people feel more comfortable. That is an important threshold for him to have crossed and if he has crossed it then McCain has very few options.
Zoot, thanks for the info about swings in past races.
I’ll ‘fess up that I’m rooting for Obama, but I think there’s still a lot of scenarios that can play out before Nov. 4 . And even though the Bradley effect has been discounted, I do think that race is still a factor. BBC News examined racism in Scranton, PA, and found that it is a not-so-secret secret among local voters and campaigners : democratic voters who formerly supported Hillary would rather vote for McCain than for a non-white candidate. (This aired on “BBC World News” in the US on 10/2/08, but I haven’t found a link to the video or transcript on the BBC site yet).
Something else that has been overlooked is the racism that exists among some hispanics. I may get pilloried for saying this, but I speak from long personal experience. It’s unfortunate, and I truly dislike saying this in the America of 2008, but race may yet play a role in this election.