We have now entered October, we are less than five weeks from the election and Ohio has started voting! In 36 days, we will (hopefully) know the name of the next president, the breakdown of the 111th congress and countless of other electoral results. How many more ways are there to say that we have entered the election’s final stretch?
Tonight, another national poll (conducted for New York Times/CBS) finds Obama with a large lead, 49% to 40%. The internals seem disastrous for McCain: his unfavorability rating is at a record high, only 36% of his voters support him enthusiastically (versus 61% for Obama) and 47% of respondents disapprove of the way McCain handled the financial crisis (versus 32% for Obama). The suspension gamble has not worked for McCain. But all of this certainly does not mean that the presidential race is over or that the GOP is doomed in congressional races.
There are a number of questions left to be answered, and this seems like a good time to outline a few of them. I kicked off the series this morning by discussing one possible wild card: will McCain use Jeremiah Wright? Here are 8 other questions. Many of them might be obvious, though their answers certainly aren’t.
Will the economy remain this dominant a story for the next five weeks? Rick Davis wanted the election to be about characters, not issues, and for a period of time he was successful in accomplishing his goal. But the financial crisis has changed everything in this election. It has undercut McCain’s momentum, it has nationalized the election just when Republicans were hoping that they had improved their party’s brand and it has given Democrats hope they can pull off as big a victory this year as they did in 2006. It blocks any other story from breaking through, and it prevents Republican from launching effective attacks against Obama.
It will be very difficult for Republicans to reverse this dynamic and prevent macro trends from once again submerging their incumbents if the financial crisis remains this dominant a story. McCain and congressional Republican need the situation on Wall Street to calm down and for some kind of bailout deal to be passed so he can move on to other things.
Will first time voters show up? They did in Iowa, swamping Clinton and Edwards’s turnout efforts. If Obama manages to get all the voters he has registered and sporadic electors to the polls, his ground game could be unstoppable. But that remains a big if, and these voters are called sporadic for a reason. They might register, but that does not mean they will vote, so a campaign cannot count on their just showing up. How many first time voters Obama can motivate will be a crucial factor in his electoral prospects, and this is why early voting is so important for his campaign, particularly in Ohio.
Will African-Americans make up a greater share of the electorate? Another question relating to Obama’s impact on November turnout, and one that has puzzled pollsters for months. Most surveys are basing their share of black turnout on the 2004 results - roughly 20% in North Carolina, for instance. While black voters are generally not underrepresented on Election Day, there is on doubt that there are millions of African-Americans who are not registered to vote and the Obama campaign has been organizing extensive registration efforts targeting them. If Obama can boost black turnout even by small amounts (say, 22% of North Carolina voters) it would have a huge impact on the results, and it would also impact down-ballot races. This could make or break Ronnie Musgrove, Kay Hagan and Beverly Perdue and have a significant impact in House races as well (OH-01, for instance).
Does Palin even matter? We will talk about this more in the run-up to the vice-presidential debate, but it is worth remembering that vice-presidential nominees ultimately don’t matter that much, even when they perform disastrously (see Don Quayle). On the other hand, while Palin might not directly cost McCain votes, she has already proven a distraction to the Republican’s campaign, as McCain aides have been working to control the damage of her Katie Couric interviews for almost a week now. If that pattern continues in the weeks ahead, the campaigns will waste precious news cycles continually putting out fires.
What will come out of “troopergate?” This was the one controversy relating to Sarah Palin we knew about as soon as we first heard her name on August 29th, and it is the one controversy that is sure to come back in the news in the weeks ahead. The investigation into Palin’s behavior was launched before Palin was tapped by McCain, and the report was scheduled to be released at the very end of October. The investigative committee decided to finish its report three weeks earlier to avoid bringing this issue to the fore in the closing days of the election (note that the initial release date already preceded the election). So we should get a report on troopergate from Alaska in the ten days ahead, and if the findings are damaging, the GOP will waste precious cycles being distracted by Palin… again. And the McCain campaign is worried enough to release a preemptive web video.
Will there be a Bradley effect? I argued just the other day that Obama should have little reason to worry about a drop in his performance on Election Day. The Bradley effect appears to have evaporated over the psat decade, and it is important not to confuse the share of voters who are supporting McCain for racial reasons with the share of voters who are lying to pollsters about supporting Obama. Few people are disputing the existence of the latter, and that is not what the Bradley effect is about. That said, there has never been an African-American candidate running for this high an office, so do historical patterns really matter?
Will McCain have to cut funding to some battleground states in order to defend Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina? Obama has full scale operations in place in Indiana and North Carolina, but the McCain campaign did not move for months. In Missouri, both campaigns have been investing resources, but Republicans were hoping that they would be able to stop spending resources here by September. Instead, all three states appear highly competitive, the GOP is heavily playing in Missouri and has now decided it has to defend Indiana and North Carolina as well. Can the GOP really sustain a 15-state campaign throughout October? It seems unlikely they can, and that will lead to some of the most important decisions of the year for McCain’s camp - 11th hour calls as to which states no longer seem viable and should be ceded to Obama.
Iowa is the obvious answer, but, surprisingly enough, McCain was there today, showing no sign that he intends to give up on the Hawkeye State. The other obvious answer is the list of blue states the campaign is contesting - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire. It is hard to conceive that the McCain campaign can stay involved in all five of these states if it is spending resources defending Indiana and North Carolina, so it’s likely that some will have to be left out, even with the RNC’s help. But given that Iowa and New Mexico lean Democratic, Obama would only need one more red state if he can secure all these Kerry states, making it all that imperative that McCain stay on the offense here… If IN, MO and NC continue to move anchor themselves in the toss-up category, the McCain camp might have to make some quick decisions; if it can regain some breathing room, it might be able to leave its electoral map intact for a while longer.
What will be the verdict of the Ted Stevens trial? This is a question that is entirely out of the hands of any politician at this point, and it is the only question I can think of whose answer could single-handedly decide the fate of a Senate seat. Ted Stevens is close enough in the polls than an acquital in late October could boost him to victory; a guilty verdict would almost certainly doom his prospects. But the jury’s decision could have repercussions on other races as well. Stevens is one of the most senior Republicans in the Senate, and he comes from the home state of one of the vice-presidential nominees. A guilty verdict would create a wave of bad publicity for the GOP within two weeks of Election Day, it would put Republican incumbents on the defensive and it could bring back ethics as a major issue.
What about Troopergate? It’s still going on, and the results should be coming out Oct. 10th. Palin as a VP does not matter much, but selecting someone who is accused of abusing power will not look well on the judgement of McCain.
I’ll take a shot at answerwing these questions.
1) Yes ; unless there is a huge non economic event; e.i. terrorist attack or Katrina type natural disaster.
2) Yes, the Ohio early vote will give us a hint of how big this will be.
3) Yes, these are probable the most motivated voters out there.
4) Not really, if she tanks tomorrow it will reflect badly on McCain’s judgement;a small loss for him; and if she survives she only motivates the hard core right who already upport McCain.
5) It will be a one or two news cycle story at most no matter how it turns out.
6) Yes, but it will be mostly offset by a huge increase in AA and youth support for Obama.
7) Yes, but it doesn’t really matter, the McCain campaign is bleeding states everywhere. they can’t defend them all.
8) It only matters to the down ballot races. Palin will secure her home state. I think Stevens & Young will both lose no matter what the courts decide.
There are lots of other things that could affect the election mostly to Obama’s favor. Some are McCain’s medical records and mental state; the Gonzolas investigation or a foriegn war.
Great questions. Even if the bailout/economy fades from center stage, it will remain under the surface since unemployment is increasing and people feel squeezed.
Also I think the tone of the election has changed. Itis more serious now and if McCain tries to bring trivia into the campaign (lipstick, sex ed, celebrity ads etc) then Obama just retorts that times are too serious and we need to deal with issues. Obama has improved his favorability ratings and McCain is now the more risky choice. Obama taking the high road - his healthcare ad etc will play well.
Forgot to mention that McCain cannot play in all the states he needs to. IN and NC were completely unexpected sates in play and if he defends them then something has to give.
If the bailout passes the house and starts to fade, that will give McCain an opening to return to issues that favor him more, i.e foreign policy and especially character issues. As bad as it is for McCain now, the election is still about a month away and there are still many things that could happen that could tip the election towards McCain.
And on the Palin debate, if Biden says something that some women see as sexist, then it could dominate the news and shift the race towards McCain again. This is especially if the the House passes the revised bailoutplan, puttng the ecnomcy a little bit on the back burner. This is why it is key for Biden to be respectful and focus his fire on McCain. Kinda unfair that a woman can wallop on a man but if the reverse happens it is automatically sexism, but the McCain camapign will exploit any advantage they think they can get (and they have to, he is behind right now).
Very interesting insights, Taniel. You have great questions that may serve as decisive factors in the Election. But Taniel, I believe that since many states start voting early, what happens near the end of this month will not matter much. Anything that happens in 2 weeks from now will have little effect on the results of Nov. 4 because it may be too late to influence some voters who may already have cast their votes.
Anon, that is an important point - but don’t overestimate the importance of early voting. Undecided/independent voters who would be swayed by late events are not likely to vote in as great numbers as voters who would never change their vote no matter what happened (certainly the vast majority of the electorate). Early voting is more a factor of the ground game, locking in the votes of sporadic unreliable voters who would vote for you… if they voted
Good comment daniel & others, specially Jaxx & fritz. Still is early for McCain to make a comeback, but i guess it will depend heavily in a poor Obama/Biden performance in the debates or some other big news to tip it to McCain, as Daniel said, at most McCain will approach a tie in the Pop. vote & electoral college.
If the race continues like this, is obvious that McCain should spent more time defending FL, MO, NC and I think his only way to the White House would be sweeping OH , PA & NH. (with that he can afford to lose the SW and VA). The problem for him right now is that actually looks like PA is easier to win than FL. If he doesn’t catch a break, the GOP ticket should focus in help at least the competitive Congress races. McCain can actually help in the Senate race in MN, OR, and Palin in NC.
Sorry to be the only one writing a sarcastic, only semi-serious comment but I gotta do it:
We all know that no one can beat the Democrats in squandering away really favorable factors and come up short in the end.
I agree with Jaxx - there is still a month and October surprise(s) are definitely possible.
Where’s the evidence that the “Bradley effect” has disappeared?Maybe lessened? Ford in Tenn. polled much higher than he got election day 2006 if my memory is right.
Anon - Ford got hit by the playboy ads in the closing days so I don`t think it was a bradley effect. Also this was TN which is more racist than most states.
Jaxx - I agree there is a month to go and the vP debate today can have some effect but unless something spectacular happens it will quickly be moved off the news cycle due to the House hopefully passing the rescue package tomorrow and then early next week the next Presidental debate. A small window for the VP’s to shine (or otherwise).
I agree that early voting only locks in people who would vote for you anyway but in tight races (CO, VA, N, OH etc) it could make the difference.
Obama’s lead is too small and too flexible for me to be very cofindent that he will definitly win the election. Lets not forget that a major reason for Obama’s uptick is because of the Wall Street crisis. If the bill passes the House, it is likely the ecnomny will become less important (althrough its very possible that any recovery will be slow, therefore keeping the ecnomny on the front burner). McCain has a bigger stake in passing the bill than Obama because McCain needs voters to stop thinking about the ecnomny and start thinking of either foreign policy or issues of character or leadership. Lets not forget that during the whole “lipstick on a pig” episode McCain was doing pretty well and he will want to switch back to character issues if he can’t change the discussion to foreign policy.
On the VP debate, I disagree that it can have little impact. Knowing Biden’s repuation as a master at gaffes, there is a decent chance that Biden will say something that is construed as sexist towards Palin, and Obama’s numbers among white women will drop sharply and PA and MI being in great danger once again if this happen. And of course with expectations being so low, Palin could suprise us with a good showing at the debate (she did very well in the Alsaka Gov. race debates in 2006). Also, the controversy over Gwen Iffel writing a book on race in elections has caused alot of the conservatives to say that she is biased. If Palin does poor in the debate, then they can just claim that the debate was biased towards Biden and if that narriative holds the damage Palin may have caused may be mitigated and Obama’s numbers could fall even more.
Anon,
That is simply not correct. Ford lost 51% to 48%, which was a much tighter margin than the final polls had predicted, see for yourself. The final 10 polls had him between 38% to 47%, and in only one of the 10 did Ford poll better than -3 (and that was a Democratic internal). If anything, Tennessee’s Senate race disproves the Bradley effect by itself: a high-profile election where racial dynamics were injected, and the margin defied all polling in Ford’s favor.
Also, Guy, a state being more racist doesn’t mean that the Bradley effect would be more pronounced. If anything, it could mean that voters are less shy about following racial clues and thus are less likely to feel embarrassed or lie about who they are supporting.
Taniel - fair point about TN and the Bradley “effect”.
Jaxx - yes the campaign may be able to shift to other issues for the remaining 4.5 weeks but there is sombreness (if that is a word) that wasn`t there in August. This seriousness will help focus peoples minds on issues which helps Obama.
JR:
Unless Biden makes a huge gaffe (unlikely)there will be little lasting effect on the Obama campaign.
The thing that Palin has to worry about is not that she won’t be able to deal with an information question e.i. Who is the Prime Minister of Canada? but rather will she be able to discuss the McCain campaign policies in any coherant detail e.i. will she be able to argue for McCain’s heath care plan and explain why Obama’s plan is flawed. I realize the debate format favors short pithy answers but does Gov. Palin know enough basic information about McCain policies to not go way off messsage.
As to Gwen Ifill; her book is a red herring and if anything it shows how bad the McCain folks are at vetting people. This book has been public knowledge for months and a google search of her name would have brought it up. Ms. Ifill is a pro and will be unbiased. The qestion is will she hold Gov. Palin’s feet to the fire and not accept bromides as answers.