2008 October Archive at Campaign Diaries

Monthly Archive for October, 2008

Poll watch: Obama dominates CO, ties AZ, ND and IN; Wicker and Merkley solid, Franken alive, Stevens drowns

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on October 31, 2008

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As is expected the Friday before an election, we were treated with a deluge of polls at the presidential and Senate level today, making this quite a large edition of poll watch.

It is hard to make sense of 44 presidential polls from 19 different states at once, though the fact that seven of them come from New Hampshire and find a similar result makes things far easier. These polls are also important to go over, as they were almost all conducted entirely this week (many of the state surveys that we had been considering over the past few days, whether CNN/Time, AP/GfK or Quinnipiac were taken over the week-end).

Taken together, these polls detect no sign of tightening, whether nationally (Obama is at or above 50% in five out of eight national polls and McCain is above 45% in only survey) or at the state level. In fact, it is McCain’s base that keeps eroding rather than Obama’s: We have now gotten used to seeing Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina dead-locked - if not slightly leaning in Obama’s direction - but it is stunning to see that McCain can no longer muster a lead outside of the margin of error in Arizona, Montana or North Dakota. That’s right, we have now bee treated to half-a-dozen polls this week alone that have shown McCain collapsing in his home state - with Research 2000 showing him leading by only 1%.

Obama continues to dominate in polls from the Big Three states. No new survey from Virginia was released today, but two polls from Colorado suggest that McCain might already have lost the state given that nearly half of all registered voters have already cast their ballot and Obama is leading by 7% and 10% overall in those two surveys. Obama’s huge lead among independents in almost all recent Colorado polls confirm that Western independents are likely to vote Obama; that should also help him in Nevada and in the Mountain West.

However, there might be some signs of Obama’s weakening in Pennsylvania. He remains in a dominant position, but not as clearly as he did just two weeks ago. After Mason Dixon’s 4% margin yesterday, Strategic Vision has Obama ahead by 5% today after showing him leading by 14% three weeks ago and 9% last week; and while Obama is ahead by 10% in Morning Call’s tracking, it is the first time in a more than a month that McCain has reached 43%. Because there is no early voting in Pennsylvania, it remains conceivable that McCain can pull it off - but it is obviously extremely difficult to close such a gap in the final three days.

The problem for McCain, of course, is that Obama would only have to sweep Nevada, Colorado and Virginia and Pennsylvania would not matter. Or, for that matter, could he ensure victory by picking up just one of the many other vulnerable red states: Out of six polls of Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana today, McCain leads only in one - and that’s within the margin of error and based on Obama’s low 65% among blacks. And there really is no other blue state McCain can hope to pick up. He trails widely in seven New Hampshire polls today, as well as by double digits in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan:

Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Marist national poll conducted entirely on Tuesday. Marist had not conducted a national survey since the end of September, when Obama led by 5%.

Trackings: Obama gains 2% in Gallup (52% to 43%; he gains 3% in the RV and LVT models to seize an 11% and 8% lead, respectively), 1% in Hotline (48% to 41%), Washington Post/ABC (53% to 44%) and Research 2000 (51% to 45%). The race is stable in IBD/TIPP (47% to 43%) and in Zogby (50% to 43%). Obama loses 1% in Rasmussen (51% to 47%). Obama’s leads thus are: 4%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 9%, 9%.

Colorado: Obama leads 54% to 44% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday. (Early voters make up 65% of respondents (!), and they go for Obama by 17% - meaning that all he needs is 35% of remaining voters. Obama leads 60% to 36% among independents.) Obama leads 52% to 45% in an ARG poll conducted over the same period; he leads by 13% among independents. (McCain had a 3% lead five weeks ago.)

Pennsylvania: Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Monday through Wednesday (he led by 7% last week and by 14% three weeks ago). Obama leads 53% to 43% in the Morning Call tracking poll.

North Carolina: Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The candidates are tied at 48% in an Insider Advantage poll conducted Tuesday. Obama leads 47% to 46% in the final Civitas poll taken Monday through Wednesday (down from a 3% lead).

Missouri: McCain leads 50% to 47% in an Insider Advantage poll conducted yesterday. The candidates are tied at 47% in an ARG poll taken from Tuesday through Thursday.

Indiana: The candidates are tied at 47% in a SUSA poll, though Obama leads by 32% among early voters. Obama led by 4% last week.

New Hampshire: Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday. He leads 53% to 42% in a SUSA poll conducted over the past two days. Obama leads 50% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Monday through Wednesday. Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll conducted over the past three days. Obama leads 56% to 41% in an ARG poll taken over the same period. He leads 53% to 40% in a Suffolk poll. Obama leads 53% to 39% in the UNH tracking poll.

New Mexico: Obama leads 58% to 41% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Minnesota: Obama leads 57% to 41% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Wisconsin: Obama leads 53% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll.

Georgia: McCain leads 52% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday (the same margin as last week). He leads 47% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday; he led by 6% two weeks ago. He trails by 15% among early voters.

Montana: McCain leads 48% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 4% also two weeks ago. Ron Paul was not included. McCain leads 49% to 46% in an ARG poll taken over the same period.

North Dakota: McCain leads 47% to 46% in a Research 2000 poll. The candidates were tied two weeks ago.

Arizona: McCain leads 48% to 47% in a Research 2000 poll conducted from Tuesday through Thursday. Obama leads by 12% among early voters. McCain leads 50% to 46% in an ARG poll conducted over the same period.

Michigan: Obama leads 55% to 42% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday. Obama leads 50% to 38% in an EPIC-MRA poll conducted from Sunday through Tuesday (Obama led by 14% the week before). Obama leads 54% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll.

West Virginia: McCain leads 55% to 42% in a PPP poll. That’s a 5% expansion over a poll released two weeks ago.

Oregon: Obama leads 57% to 42% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

New Jersey: Obama leads 53% to 35% in a Farleigh Dickinson poll. Obama leads 52% to 42% in SUSA.

Alaska: McCain leads 58% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll.

Mississippi: McCain leads 53% to 40% in Research 2000. Obama receives 13% of the white vote.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot surveys, where we got a staggering number of surveys today:

The Field poll of California has Proposition 8 losing 49% to 44% - that’s a slight narrowing from the September survey, and the vote certainly remains close.

Georgia, Senate race: GOP Senator Chambliss leads 47% to 46% in a Research 2000 poll, with 5% going to Buckley. Among early voters, Jim Martin leads by 17%, however. (The poll has a problem, however: Only 12% of the sample is made up of early voters even though more than a third of registered voters have already cast their ballot.) Chambliss leads 48% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll, an improvement over his 2% lead last week; Allen Buckley gets 7%.
An older CNN/Time poll, however, has Chambliss leading by 9% (53-44) among likely voters and by 1% (48-47) among registered voters. The CNN poll is worthless, as it is ridiculous not to include a third-party candidate when a candidate has to cross 50% to win.

North Carolina, Senate race: Kay Hagan leads 50% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll; she led by 4% two weeks ago. 45% to 43% in the final Civitas poll. Hagan leads 53% to 44% in a CNN poll taken earlier (from the 23rd to the 28th).

Mississippi, Senate race: GOP Senator Roger Wicker takes a 51% to 44% lead in a Research 2000 poll. He led by only 1% two weeks ago.

Minnesota, Senate race: Al Franken leads 45% to 40%, with 14% for Barkley in a PPP poll. In this poll (contrary to those that were released yesterday), Barkley draws about equally from both parties. Al Franken also leads 41% to 37% in a new MPR poll.

Oregon, Senate race: Jeff Merkley leads 51% to 43% in a PPP poll, with 4% going to Dave Brownlow. 59% of respondents say they have already voted, and Merkley leads by 22% among them… Merkley leads 49% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll.

Alaska, Senate race: Mark Begich leads 58% to 36% in a Research 2000 poll conducted after Stevens’ conviction.

New Hampshire, Senate race: Four new polls find Jeanne Shaheen poised to pick-up the seat. She leads 52% to 44% in a new Rasmussen poll. She leads 53% to 40% in a new SUSA poll (up from an 8% lead three weeks ago). She leads 48% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll. She leads 52% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll. Shaheen leads 53% to 41% in an ARG poll conducted over the past three days. She leads 48% to 41% in the UNH tracking poll.

Colorado, Senate race: Mark Udall leads 56% to 41% in a PPP poll; he leads 60% to 38% among those who have already voted. Udall leads 53% to 43% in a CNN poll.

North Carolina, gubernatorial race: Bev Perdue leads 45% to 43% in the final Civitas poll. She leads 49% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll.

Safe(r) seats: Tom Udall leads 58% to 39% in a PPP poll of New Mexico. Frank Lautenberg leads 52% to 37% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.

In AK-AL, Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz leads 53% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago.

In NH-01, Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter extends her lead to a 49% to 42% advantage in a new Research 2000 poll. She leads 46% to 41% in the UNH tracking poll.

In this avalanche of Senate news from a number of competitive races, most of the good news goes to Democrats. The two Udalls confirm their domination, and Jeanne Shaheen is poised to pick up the New Hampshire Senate seat as she posts leads ranging from 7% to 13% in six separate surveys. Mark Begich could join them and put Alaska in the easy pick-up column according to this second post-conviction poll, though I would still warn against underestimating Stevens.

In Oregon, Jeff Merkley appears to be closing the deal. Oregon’s mail-in voting system means more than half of the state’s voters have already sent in their ballot and Gordon Smith might already have lost his seat. Elizabeth Dole’s situation might be a bit better, and she has a few more days to recapture momentum. But early voting turnout is huge in North Carolina, leaving her with a reduced pool of voters who could still change their vote. Today’s polls (as with most surveys that have been released over the past few weeks) leave little doubt that Hagan is favored - albeit only narrowly.

That leaves us with Mississippi, Georgia, and Minnesota, three highly competitive seats where the situation still looks very confusing. In Mississippi, Research 2000’s survey is the second poll this week to find Roger Wicker opening up a large lead, suggesting that this seat is slipping away from Democrats. Sure, Musgrove could benefit from increased black turnout, but this poll already pegs it at 37%; it’s hard to see it rise far above that. Furthermore, Musgrove’s problems come from his decline among white voters (he only gets 20%).

Democratic hopes of a 60-seat majority would then rest on KY, GA and MN. In Georgia, Buckley is getting a large enough share of the vote that it is becoming difficult to conceive either Chambliss or Martin crossing the 50% threshold. Whatever result comes out of this election will clearly depend on final turnout rates; in few states as much as this one are the LV and RV models finding such disparate results. In Minnesota, meanwhile, the situation is just as confused: Who are Barkley voters? Yesterday, two polls suggested that Barkley was disproportionately drawing from Democrats; today, two new surveys have him pulling equally from both sides. If the former happens, Coleman is in a great position; if the latter, Franken is still very much in the game.

Congress: Hillary’s impact, Dole’s second godless ad, Stevens’ plea and the NRCC’s hit on Murtha

Published

Taniel

on October 31, 2008

in AK-Sen, FL-18, KY-Sen, MS-Sen, NC-Sen, NJ-05 and PA-12

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One of the most puzzling developments of the past few days has been Hillary Clinton’s transformation from a boogeywoman Republican use to scare conservative voters away from Democratic candidates into a working class heroin praised by the GOP’s presidential ticket!

Hillary’s new ambiguous position on the American political scene was confirmed by two new ads airing in red states. In Mississippi, Roger Wicker is using her as a stand-in for Washington Democrats in a spot that urges voters not to “send a failed ex-Governor to support Hillary’s liberal agenda:”

Meanwhile, in conservative Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford is touting Clinton’s support. Not only will the New York Senator visit the state a second time Sunday to boost Lunsford, but footage of her first visit a few weeks ago is now being highlighted in a new Lunsford ad:

That’s right, a Democratic Senate candidate in Kentucky is doing his best to tie his fate to Hillary Clinton’s popularity. Who could have predicted that a few months ago? Given that Mississippi and Kentucky are both red states that McCain is likely to win by wide margins, the discrepancy between Wicker and Lunsford’s ads is somewhat curious - though perhaps not dramatically so.

Democrats enjoy a large registration advantage in Kentucky, but conservative-minded blue-collar Democrats have become reliable Republican voters. It is precisely that constituency that Clinton championed in the latter half of the primary, and Kentucky’s Democratic voters rewarded her with a resounding 35% victory in the late May contest. Today, Lunsford is looking to mobilize the Democratic base by proving to Kentucky’s Democratic voters that he belongs to the Clinton wing of the party rather than to the Obama wing - whatever those distinctions came to mean in the last few months of the Obama-Clinton showdown.

—

In North Carolina, the entire Senate campaign has come to a scratching halt and has been replaced by the controversy over Elizabeth Dole’s “Godless” ad. Kay Hagan filed a defamation lawsuit, but that is not preventing Dole from firing another shot. This is not about “Hagan’s faith,” the new ad says, but about the “fact” that she attended a party thrown by Godless Americans. The concludes by asking, “If Godless Americans threw a party in your honor, would you go?”

Elizabeth Dole is putting all her re-election hopes on this one attack against Hagan - not that she has a choice. After Kay Hagan’s forceful response, Dole would be admitting that her initial ad was a disgrace if she backed down, so she is accepting the showdown. At the very least this new ad no longer juxtaposes Hagan’s image with a woman’s voice announcing that there is no God.

It is nearly impossible to predict what impact such attacks have, so we will have to wait until Tuesday night to see whether it allowed Dole to discredit Hagan and mount a comeback or whether it backfired. One factor to take into account, of course, is the jaw-dropping early voting turnout rate (already 60% of the total 2004 vote), which means it is probable than more than half of voters already cast their ballot as this controversy is heating up.

—

In Alaska, Ted Stevens is trying to convince voters to re-elect him despite his guilty verdict. In a new ad in which he talks directly to the camera, Stevens insists he is innocent and seeks to cast the trial and its conclusion as non-Alaskans trying to intrude in Alaska affairs:

As we discovered over the past few months, there is a powerful anti-lower 48 current in Alaska (even Todd Palin was a member of the Alaska Independence Party, after all), and Stevens is trying to channel that anger to get voters to not only forgive him for his conviction but to also rally around him. If anyone can pull this off, it’s probably Stevens, who is as towering a figure in his home state as any politician in the country, making it easier for him to appeal to voters’ Alaskan pride.

—

In House races, both parties are making last-minute expenditures - and the NRCC is by far making the biggest splash. It has bought $465,000 worth of air time against Democratic congressman Jack “Western Pennsylvanians are racist” Murtha. That’s a very substantial sum of money to spread over just 4 days, especially when it comes to the NRCC. The Republican committee has budgetary difficulties and it has pulled the plug on an number of highly endangered incumbents (Musgrave in CO-04, Bachmann in MN-06, Knollenberg in MI-09, …).

For the NRCC invest this much money in this seat at the last minute means that they are very confident that Murtha’s comments have made him highly vulnerable. If Murtha loses Tuesday night (which is very possible), it will mark a stunning upset that just two weeks ago was unthinkable; if Murtha wins by a comfortable margin, this is one $465,000 that Republicans who’ll go down in tight races will be particularly bitter about.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is spending modest expenditures in at least two GOP-held seats in which they had yet to invest: FL-18 and NJ-05. Both districts are rated likely Republican in my recent House ratings, and polls in both have suggested that the once-comfortable GOP incumbents risk being upset on Tuesday. The DCCC’s last-minute push could help make the most of this - but it is certainly getting late.

Battleground watch: Race heats up in Arizona, McCain scales back turnout efforts

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Taniel

on October 31, 2008

in AZ-Pres, GA-Pres, ND-Pres and Nat-Pres

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In the final stretch before Election Day, campaigns typically focus on an increasingly narrow list of swing states - but this year new battlegrounds are emerging left and right.

A few weeks ago, West Virginia suddenly looked like a very promising state, and though recent polling has not shown the race to be that competitive, the Obama campaign did buy air time. We also started hearing about a potential Obama investment in Kentucky - though that does not appear to have come to pass.

But the Obama campaign just announced that it would start or resume advertising in three red states: Georgia, North Dakota and McCain’s home state of Arizona. Obama advertised in the first two states throughout the summer, only to scale back his efforts in mid-September when it appeared that McCain was finally putting marginally competitive red states away. But both have now tightened, so much so that the Atlanta Journal Constitution is calling Georgia a nail-biter.

The real stunner, however, is Obama’s decision to make a play for Arizona. No one doubts that Arizona would have been a highly competitive race had the Republican nominee not been the state’s Senator, but it is very rare for a candidate to lose his home state (Al Gore’s failure to hold on to Tennessee cost him dearly, but Gore had not represented his state in years).

But Obama’s strength among Hispanics and among Western independent voters give him a shot at picking-up the state’s 10 electoral votes. A surprising deluge of Arizona polls have been released over the past few days, and nearly all have shown the race within the margin of error. (A new Research 2000 poll shows McCain’s lead down to 1%.)

Et tu, Arizona?

(It is interesting to see that Obama’s ads in the state will be a positive one, whereas he is airing attack ads in Georgia and North Dakota; similarly, Move On is also going up on air in Arizona on Obama’s behalf, also with a positive ad. Democrats apparently do not want to antagonize Arizona voters who have a long relationship with the Republican nominee.)

Whether or not the state will fall to the Obama column is not as important as the fact that the McCain campaign has been forced to schedule its final rally on Monday night in Arizona. That’s right, the very last public event held by McCain before Election Day will not take place in a giant Florida auditorium or against glorious Virginia backdrop - venues that could generate some much-needed momentum for the GOP - but in Arizona, whose 10 electoral votes where the last thing on anyone’s mind until this past week-end.

This development alone summarizes McCain’s predicament: He has been forced to scale back his efforts in all blue states except Pennsylvania (as the latest list of the campaigns’ state by state spending confirms) and has had to invest more and more time defending red states that Obama absolutely does not need but where a victory would seal an electoral college majority: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, even North Carolina - none of these are in the top tier of states that are expected to get Obama above 270, but McCain is so weak in all of them that he has to take time away from Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida - all states he also needs to win!

That the McCain campaign is now forced to implement a national strategy in the hope of narrowing the gap nationally and in the process gain in some of these red states is evident in the remarkable news (reported by the Washington Post) that McCain is scaling back the GOP’s famed 72-hour turnout operation to invest more money on TV ads.

At first, this decision can seem insane: McCain is already facing a huge organizational disadvantage, so why would he dig himself in a deeper hole? But his campaign has no other choice: The 72-hour program is meant to win close races, and it can certainly perform beautifully (and a large share of Bush’s victory can be attributed to his top-notch turnout effort). It is not meant to move the race by more than a couple of points - and that is McCain’s task now. He has to close a high single-digit gap in Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania and perhaps Nevada. Unless he shifts momentum, convinces undecided voters and some voters who have already settled on Obama, no amount of organizational muscle will allow him to mount a comeback.

In other important news from battleground states

The North Carolina Board of Elections has agreed to extend early voting by four hours on Saturday, meaning that voters can cast a ballot until 5pm on the first day of the week-end. Democrats were worried that thousands of voters would be left unable to cast a ballot had the polls closed at 1pm. This follows a decision by Florida Governor Charlie Crist to extend voting hours by four hours a day all week.

A federal judge ordered Pennsylvania’s Secretary of the Commonwealth to distribute paper ballots.

In Colorado, more than 35,000 new voters who requested mail-in-ballots are at risk of having their ballot disqualified because of voter identification rules.

In a blow to the GOP’s plans to challenge voters at the polls on Tuesday, a judge ruled that Ohio residents do not have to have an actual address to cast a ballot and that a homeless voter is eligible if his only “residence” is a park bench.

Abortion, gay marriage, transit and tax props piment state ballots

Published

Taniel

on October 31, 2008

in Proposition 8

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Enough state initiatives and referendums complement the November 4th line-up that a short summary of the most important of these propositions is in order. But it’s very difficult to have an idea of how these debates might play out. Not only is there very little polling data about propositions, but voters tend to pay attention and make up their mind relatively late.

Gay marriage

The most high-profile of these votes is, of course, California’s Proposition 8. While there have been dozens of gay marriage-related votes over the years, this is the first in which voters are asked whether they want to eliminate a right that already exists. The stakes could not be higher, and a “yes” victory would set gay rights back decades by inscribing an anti-gay provision in the constitution of one of the most liberal states in the country. Polls have shown a close race, with SUSA finding a higher likelihood of passage than PPIC.

Millions have been spent on this battle. Over the past four years, $33 million combined had been spent on pro-or anti-gay marriage campaigns in 24 states; as of the most recent campaign finance filings, an outstanding $60 million had been raised by both camps, setting a new record for a ballot initiative on a social issue. (Interesting side note: Apple just made a $100,000 contribution to the “no” campaign.) The “yes” campaign (heavily bankrolled by the Mormon Church) has run ads warning voters that young children in public schools will be taught about homosexuality if same-sex marriage is not eliminated, an argument that is said to have moved some numbers. The “no” campaign, meanwhile, has been criticized for its timidity, though it appears to have gotten more aggressive - both messaging and fundraising-wise - in the past few weeks.

Two other states are holding votes on gay marriage. In 2006, Arizona became the first and only state to reject a ban on gay marriage, but its proponents got the state Senate to place the ban on the ballot yet again. In Florida, the gay marriage amendment must receive 60% of the vote to pass - a hurdle that might be high enough for the vote to fail. Florida’s amendment is broadly phrased (”inasmuch as a marriage is the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife, no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized”), and its passage would threaten the benefits of hundreds of thousands of heterosexual unmarried couples, particularly those of widowed senior citizens who would lose pension benefits if they were to remarry.

Abortion

Two years ago, South Dakota rejected a ban on all abortions, and the defeat was attributed to the law making no exception for incest, rape and the mother’s health. This time, Initiated Measure 11 allows for these exceptions but bans abortion in other circumstances. If the proposition passes, it will probably spark a legal battle that pro-life activists hope might become a challenge to Roe v. Wade jurisprudence.

Another high-profile battle is being waged in California. Proposition 4 would impose parental notification for minors and a 48 waiting period after said notification. California voters narrowly rejected similar initiatives in 2005 and 2006, but polls suggest this will be yet another nail-bitter. A smaller scale abortion proposal is Colorado’s Amendment 48, which would define “person” as “any human being from the moment of fertilization.”

Transit

Guest blogged by Yonah Freemark (The Transport Politic): Transit will play an important role in this election, with ten separate votes in five states on whether to increase taxes or take out bonds to pay for significant public transportation improvements. California’s Proposition 1a is the biggest of the bunch, proposing the biggest infrastructure project in the nation since the Eisenhower Interstate Highway program. Voter approval would mean the release of a $10 billion bond to pay for the construction of a high-speed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco, expected to be a 2h40 trip on 220-mph trains when the program is complete (future expansion would eventually connect Sacramento, Irvine and San Diego to the line, bringing the total mileage to 800). This will be the first example of true high-speed rail in the U.S., though Europe and Japan have been developing these trains for the past thirty years to great popular success.

California has been officially considering developing a high-speed rail network since 1996 because of increasing road and air congestion and the overwhelming costs of upgrading and expanding highway and airport systems. The election of Arnold Schwarzenegger to the Governorship in 2003 put the project in peril because of the Republican’s relentless drive to cut the state’s ballooning budget; bond measures originally meant to be considered by voters in ‘04 and ‘06 were called off. But the Governor’s rhetoric in favor of climate protection (electric rail is far more efficient than either automobiles or airplanes) and his work with Michael Bloomberg and Ed Rendell on the infrastructure-promoting Building America’s Future campaign made it difficult for him to continue to delay the project.

Voters in Honolulu, Kansas City, West Sacramento, and Sonoma and Marin Counties in California are considering the creation of new rail transit systems. Each (with the exception of West Sacramento) ask voters to approve a sales tax increase to pay for the plans, which range from a 20-mile elevated light rail line in Hawaii to a commuter rail line intended to speed travel to San Francisco in the two Northern California counties. In Los Angeles, Seattle, St. Louis, New Mexico, and Santa Clara County in California, sales tax increases are being considered to fund expansions of current networks, including a “subway to the sea” in L.A. and the extension of San Francisco’s BART to downtown San Jose. (A more detailed discussions of all of these proposals is available here.)

Taxes

One of the highest-profile propositions in the country is Massachusetts‘ Question 1, which would eliminate the state income tax by 2010. This would cut about 40% of the state budget, forcing the legislature to immediately cut social programs and infrastructure spending and raise other taxes (particularly local property taxes). Polls released earlier in the fall suggested the vote might go either way, but a Suffolk survey released this week has undecideds massively moving towards the “no.”

North Dakota also has a tax-related proposal, although it is less dramatic than that of Massachusetts: It would cut personal income taxes “only” in half and corporate income taxes by 15%.

Labor

Colorado has been the site of some of the most chaotic initiative politicking this past year. Wealthy conservative Jonathan Coor got a “right to work” initiative on the ballot; such bills bar union shop contracts, make it far more difficult to organize a union in a workplace and lead to unions to provide membership benefits to workers who aren’t paying membership fees. Angered unions retaliated by getting four proposals of their own on the ballot - provoking panic among business forces. All of this led to union and business leaders and the governor’s office to negotiate a deal in which labor removed the four initiatives they’d gotten on the ballot in exchange for business leaders helping raise $3 million against Coor’s measure. Even without those $3 million, unions would have massively outspent proponents of the initiative - but this will make it easier.

Other

Oregon voters will decide whether to institute merit pay in the state’s education system. Colorado’s Amendment 46 (named Colorado Civil Rights Initiative) is a ban on affirmation action that could have major consequences, even though it has not attracted as much attention as its Michigan predecessor did back in 2006.

Poll watch: Dems still far from 60, and is NV in the same tier as CO and VA?

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in AL-Pres, AZ-Pres, CA-Pres, CO-Pres, CO-Sen, FL-Pres, IA-Pres, ID-01, ID-Sen, IN-Pres, KS-Pres, KS-Sen, KY-02, KY-Pres, LA-Sen, MA-Pres, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-06, MT-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NJ-Pres, NJ-Sen, NM-Sen, NV-02, NV-Pres, NY-26, OH-Pres, OR-05, PA-03, PA-Pres, SC-Pres, SD-Pres, Uncategorized, VA-Pres and WI-Pres

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The presidential race remained remarkably stable. If the tracking polls showed McCain gaining slightly yesterday, they have Obama regaining some breathing room today; he is at 50% or above in 6 of the 9 national polls. McCain is once again stuck in the low 40s, with a margin ranging from 41% to 46%. Sure, the New York Times and Fox News national polls came out with differing results, but at least there is no mystery behind the discrepancy: the partisan breakdown has narrowed in the Fox poll.

McCain got one of his most promising polling results in days today as Mason Dixon found him trailing by only 4% in Pennsylvania - the tightest the state has been since a mid-September poll. We should not dismiss this poll, even though surveys taken over the same period show a larger advantage for Obama. Mason Dixon has been consistently releasing results that are better than average for McCain. The Republican nominee led in Virginia when other surveys found him trailing, and trailed only narrowly when other surveys found a large gap; the same was true in Florida and now Pennsylvania. The consistency of these narrower results suggests that it is due to Mason Dixon’s methodology and turnout models, which means that we should not throw these out as outliers: There is a turnout model out there employed by a respected pollster like Mason Dixon that yields results that are better for Republicans, and we won’t know until Tuesday whose assumptions were flawed.

All of this said, there is no discussion to be had that Obama retains an extremely strong position in the electoral college. For one, he remains ahead in the Big Three sates: 3 polls of Pennsylvania show him in the lead (though Mason Dixon has a 4% race), and he is also ahead in Colorado and Virginia. While two polls of Virginia show him with narrower leads than we have seen of late, both surveys were taken over the same period as the CNN and SUSA polls that had him leading by 9% - so these new polls are not picking any new tightening.

To make matters worse for McCain, we might now be getting a third competitive red state where an Obama pick-up appears increasingly likely: Nevada. After posting two double-digit leads earlier this week, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in two new surveys (Suffolk and CNN/Time). This is a very important development: Even if McCain were to save Virginia and Colorado, Obama would become president by winning Nevada alone; if McCain can somehow snatch Pennsylvania, an (not at all improbable) Obama sweep of Virginia, Colorado and Nevada would offset the loss of the Keystone State.

As if this was not enough, Ohio and North Carolina are slowly moving in Obama’s column as the Democrat is accumulating good results in both. Today, he leads in all five polls from these two states, and four of them have him ahead outside of the MoE. Given that a huge number of North Carolina voters have already voted, it is starting to get late for McCain to turn the tide. And while Obama is showing no sign of trembling in blue states (he has huge leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota), McCain is now locked in highly competitive races in a number of staunchly red states - including his home state of Arizona, South Dakota and Montana.

Obama leads 52% to 41% in a New York Times/CBS News poll, a very small tightening from Obama’s 13% lead last week. 51% say Obama is ready to be president, and McCain’s favorability has collapsed to 41% (!). So has voters’ estimate of whether Palin is able to deal the job (only 35% say so). Obama leads among men and women, and has a 17% advantage among independents.

Obama leads 47% to 44% in a Fox News national poll conducted over the past two days. Obama led by 9% last week, so the race has substantially tightened. The partisan ID has tightened from a 6% gap to a 2% gap (though this does not seem to be an arbitrary imposition like Zogby’s).

Tracking polls: Obama gains 2% in Zogby (50% to 43%) and in Rasmussen (51% to 46%). He gains 1% in IBD/TIPP (48% to 44%). The race is stable in Washington Post/ABC (52% to 44%), Gallup (51% to 44%, though Obama gains 2% in the LVT model, 50% to 45%). Obama loses 1% in Hotline (48% to 42%) and in Research 2000 (50% to 45%). Obama’s leads are thus: 4%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 8%.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads 47% to 43% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Sunday and Monday. Obama leads 54% to 41% in Morning Call’s tracking, the highest percentage Obama has ever received in this poll. Obama leads 55% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 15% among registered voters!).

Colorado: Obama leads 51% to 45% in a Marist poll (52% to 43% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; his lead comes entirely among the 44% of registered voters who say they have already voted. Obama leads by 23% among independents and has strongest party loyalty (leading me to question why he is only ahead by 6%). Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama leads by 22% among independents.

Virginia: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Marist poll (by 6% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; McCain takes a 12% lead among independents. Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Both polls were taken over the same period as SUSA, Rasmussen and CNN poll showing larger Obama leads.

Nevada: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a RGJ/Research 2000 poll (he led by 7% earlier in October); McCain leads by 3% in crucial Washoe County, though the RGJ points out that (unreleased) private polls for both parties have Obama leading that county. Obama leads 52% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday, an improvement over his 5% lead last week (he leads by 11% among registered voters!).

Ohio: Obama leads 48% to 41% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama’s lead is outside of the MoE. Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 10% among registered voters!).

Florida: Obama leads 45% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday.

North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (McCain led by 2% on Sunday). Obama leads 47% to 43% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Obama leads 52% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama led by 4% last week, he is ahead by 3% among registered voters).

Indiana: McCain leads 49% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (he led by 7% three weeks ago). Obama leads 46% to 45% in a Selzer & Co poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday; he is ahead 2:1 among early voters and gets “only” 82% of African-Americans (remember Tuesday’s polling memo released by the McCain campaign?). The candidates are tied at 47% in a Research 2000 poll taken from Friday through Tuesday.

Minnesota: Obama leads 48% to 40% in a Mason Dixon poll taken Sunday and Monday; he leads 56% to 37% in a MPR poll.

Wisconsin: Obama takes a giant 55% to 39% lead in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday, up from 8%. Obama leads by 28% among early voters.

Iowa: Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday.

Arizona: McCain leads 48% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll; he leads 53% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll.

South Dakota: McCain only leads 45% to 40% in an internal poll for Democratic Senator Johnson’s campaign.

Montana: McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by four weeks ago.

Safe(r) states: McCain leads 61% to 36% in a SUSA poll of Alabama. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. Obama leads 56% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Massachusetts. Obama leads 55% to 33% in a Field poll of California. Obama leads 54% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 53% to 42% in a NBC News poll and 52% to 44% in a SUSA poll of South Carolina (but only by 6% among registered voters). McCain leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

North Carolina’s Senate race: Kay Hagan leads 52% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. She leads 43% to 37% in a National Journal poll that has a lot of undecided voters.

Louisiana: Two polls have differing results. An internal poll for the Kennedy campaign has Mary Landrieu up 45% to 44%, while a Loyola University poll has Landrieu ahead 49% to 34%; the latter poll does not seem very reliable, however, as it only shows McCain leading by 3% and implying an oversampling of Democrats.

Mark Udall leads 51% to 36% in a National Journal poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

Mitch McConnell leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. (McConnell led by the same margin last month.) A Lunsford internal has McConnell leading 47% to 45%, however.

Norm Coleman leads 42% to 36% in a Mason Dixon poll of Minnesota. Barkley is now at 12%, and he is hurting Franken: He draws 17% of Democrats and only 4% of Republicans - a hugely consequential disparity.

Safer seats: Tom Udall leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of New Mexico. GOP Senator Pat Roberts leads 60% to 33% in a new SUSA poll of Kansas. Democratic Senator Lautenberg leads 56% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. Sen. Cornyn leads 45% to 36% in a University of Texas poll, with 5% going to Libertarian candidate Adams-Schick. GOP candidate Jim Risch leads 45% to 33% in a Harstad poll of Idaho.

In MO-06, perhaps the most disappointing House race for Democrats, GOP Rep. Graves leads 54% to 36% in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.

In KY-02, GOP candidate Brett Guthrie leads 53% to 43% in a new SUSA poll. Guthrie led by 9% last month but trailed over the summer.

In NV-02, GOP Rep. Heller leads 47% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll.

In OR-05, Democratic candidate Kurt Schrader leads 55% to 33% in a SUSA poll.

In NY-26, Republican candidate Chris Lee has a large 48% to 34% lead against Alice Kryzan in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.

In ID-01, Democratic challenger leads 48% to 41% in a Harstad poll, though the poll has a large MoE of 6%.

In PA-12, Rep. Murtha only leads 46% to 44% in a GOP poll conducted by Dane & Associates.

In PA-03, GOP Rep. English leads 47% to 45% in his own internal poll.

In Massachusetts’s question 1 to repeal the state income tax, the “no” is far ahead, 64% to 29% in a SUSA poll.

Democrats have their share of very good news in these wave of surveys - especially the two North Carolina polls showing a Hagan lead and the NV-02 survey confirming that Rep. Heller is in real danger - Republicans got uncommly positive numbers over the past 24 hours. In the Senate, Republicans appear to be solidifying their hold on the four Senate seats that are not yet leaning Democratic - KY, MN, MS and also GA because a runoff should help Chambliss. McConnell has not slipped further after his race fell into a competitive race in early October, and Coleman has improved his situation over the past three weeks.

Minnesota should be particularly worrisome to Democrats because Franken’s slippage is due to the fact that Barkley is starting to draw disproportionately from Franken’s base. If that is confirmed by other polls, it is hard to see Franken pull this off. This is a reminder that, however much progress Democrats have made over the past few weeks, the path to 60 still requires picking-up two out of these 4 seats - and that remains a tall order.

The latest House polls should also be a reminder that Democrats will certainly not win everything on Tuesday, and that a fair number of Republicans appear to be making progress in this hostile environment. The latest poll of MO-06 has to be crushing to Democrats as former Kansas City Mayor Barnes was once one of their top recruits. And while the DCCC is still investing in NY-26, the polls have not been very promising ever since Kryzan won the Democratic nomination.

Lawsuits flying in Senate races

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in MN-Sen and NC-Sen

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All hell is breaking loose in the North Carolina and Minnesota Senate races! Three stunning lawsuits were filed today, threatening to transform the final days of campaigning into political theater: Kay Hagan is suing Elizabeth Dole, Norm Coleman is suing Al Franken for breaking campaign law, and a Texas businessman is suing a Coleman supporter, alleging that he was made to make secret payments to the Minnesota Senator.

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole took her Senate race down the gutter yesterday by releasing an ad that attacked Kay Hagan’s connection to… atheists. In the ad’s most controversial moment, Kay Hagan’s image is juxtaposed to a female voice that says “there is no God” in what is a clear attempt to misleadingly suggest that the voice is Hagan’s.

Democrats have been highly critical of Dole’s ad and have zeroed in on that final moment as proof that Dole is playing dirty tricks, so much so that Hagan announced she would seek a cease and desist order if Dole did not pull the ad. The Dole campaign (though certainly not all Republicans) laughed at that request, and Hagan is now following up on her threat as she has filed a defamation lawsuit against her opponent for the ad’s suggestion that Hagan is an atheist.

This stunning escalation of a campaign that has slowly turned nasty over the past few months ensures that this controversy will dominate the last few days of campaigning and the results will be viewed (fairly or unfairly) as a referendum on Dole’s ads; if the Republican pulls what should be viewed as a comeback and wins, her victory will no doubt be attributed to this last-minute attack on Hagan’s religious beliefs and filed alongside Chambliss’s 2002 upset and Helms’ 1990 “white hands” triumph.

The problem for Dole is that the ad’s potential to backfire is great, particularly if Democrats are forceful enough in dismissing the claims are a desperate and misleading ploy. Sure, all negative ads thrive on publicity - but an attack that is this personal in nature can come across as desperate, and Kay Hagan is trying her best to get voters outraged.

She released a new ad in which she defends herself and showcases her Christian faith, and the controversy gives her an opportunity to inform voters that she was a Sunday school teacher (something that can always help in conservative parts of North Carolina). But the ad is as much about offense as about defense as Hagan takes an indignant tone, asking voters to stand by her side as:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k76tRXq0ZC0"]

And don’t forget that a huge proportion of North Carolina voters have already cast their ballot, so they cannot change their vote whatever they think of this latest back-and-forth.

Minnesota: No one saw this lawsuit coming. While Kay Hagan gave advance warning yesterday, Norm Coleman’s decision to sue Al Franken for violating state campaign law is unexpected - except for people who follow Minnesota politics closely since The Star Tribune points out that Coleman has similarly sued his opponents at the last minute in 1998 and 2002.

Coleman is taking issue with two claims made in recent Franken ads (1) the charge that he was named the “fourth most corrupt politician” and (2) the charge that Coleman lives in a practically “rent free” apartment in Washington. (The Star Tribune provides some backgrounds on both allegations.) Like the North Carolina lawsuit, it is unlikely Franken faces much legal problems, but Coleman’s action will catch all the attention over the last few days of the election.

As if the Minnesota Senate race was not confusing enough. Now, not only is it impossible to predict what effect the Barkley factor might have on the race, it is extremely difficult to get a sense of the impact this type of last minute political theatrics might have. Combined with Coleman’s decision to pull his negative ads two weeks ago (though that came after months of brutal spots airing against Franken and equally vicious NRSC spots that are still ongoing), it could allow Coleman to take the high road and convince voters that he is the cleaner campaigner - something that could be key to pulling off a victory in this three heated three-way race.

On the other hand, the risk for Coleman is that this might lead to a wave of stories about his Washington apartment. Contrary to what Coleman’s lawsuit might imply, this controversy was not pushed by the Franken campaign; it was reported in the media - and there does seem to be enough to put Coleman on the defensive in that story, as he is paying a below-the-market rate in a DC apartment, was a few months late on his payments and has not supplied proof that he has paid his share of the utilities.

To make matters even more complicated, a second lawsuit was tossed in the Minnesota Senate race today as a Texas businessman is claiming that he was made to make secret payments to Senator Coleman via his wife’s company. The buisnessman claims that a wealthy Coleman supporter forced him into this arrangement by threatening to fire him. How this plays out in the coming days will depend, of course, on how much there is behind the allegations that could put Coleman on the defensive in the campaign’s closing days.

Battleground watch: Early voting surges in CO and NC, campaigns focus on Florida

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in CO-Pres, FL-Pres, NC-Pres and NV-Pres

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In two battleground states - Colorado and North Carolina - the number of early voters just passed the mark of 50% of the total number of ballots cast in 2004. Nevada is set to join that group by the end of today, and other states also have monstrous early voting rates.

Since all the data suggests that early voters are significantly more Democratic and African-American than the electorate at large, this means that McCain will need very strong numbers among voters who will cast a ballot on Election Day to win those states - particularly since the early voting totals in those states will grow much more over the next few days.

This puts McCain in somewhat of a lose-lose situation in those states. If turnout on Election Day is low, it would mean that more than half of the Colorado, North Carolina and Nevada voters will have cast an early ballot, making it very difficult for McCain to close the gap. If so many people come out on Election Day that early voting does not represent that high a proportion of all voters, it would mean that 2008 turnout has shattered the 2004 totals and that there are a lot of first-time or sporadic voters - and that would be an amazing development for Obama.

(Democrats got more good news in Colorado today when voting right groups cut a deal with the Secretary a State to ensure that new voters whose names have been purged since May not only can cast a provisional ballot but have those provisional ballots presumed to be valid unless officials prove otherwise. This is a huge shift from the usual standard under which it is up to challenged voters to prove they are eligible.)

McCain’s hope then has to be that Republicans are simply waiting to vote until Election Day while Democrats have been pushed to vote early, so that not (comparatively) Democrats will be left by Tuesday. And there is some evidence to back that theory: In both Nevada and North Carolina, the electorate is turning more Republican by the day:

In Nevada’s huge Clark County, the share of Democratic vote has been declining for each of the part four days (from 53% to 47,5% ) and it was in the high 50s in the first three days of voting; the share of the GOP vote started off at 23% but comprised a high of 34% of yesterday’s vote. The same trend is true in Nevada’s swing Washoe County: Yesterday’s partisan breakdown was the tightest yet (43-38, versus 48-35 a week ago).

In North Carolina, more than 224,457 voters cast a ballot yesterday alone. 33% of them were Republicans; 48% were Democrats, and less than 23% were African-American. Those percentages are far more favorable to Republicans than they were a week ago, when more black voters were casting a ballot than Republicans.

This data might back up Republican hopes that the Democratic advantage is fading. However, was anyone expecting the electorate’s partisan and racial breakdown to stay what we have been seeing over the past week? These numbers might not be as jaw-droppingly good for Democrats as we have gotten used to, but Democrats and African-Americans continue to vote at far greater proportions than their share of the electorate well into the second week of early voting!

Yes, yesterday’s share of the black vote in North Carolina is smaller than it was a few days ago (23% instead of 28%), but it remains far superior to the 19% of black voters that made up the 2004 electorate. That black turnout keep out-pacing white turnout day in and day out is remarkable given how many black voters have already cast their ballot (meaning that there is a smaller pool of black voters who have yet to cast a ballot).

Given all of this data, it has become fairly inconceivable that black voters would not represent a greater share of the electorate than they did four years ago.

Since nearly all black voters will cast their ballot for Barack Obama (and other Democratic candidates), even a small increase would be hugely beneficial to Democrats: The share of the African-American vote does not have to rise from 19% to 26% (where it is now in early voting data) to impact results; even a boost to 21% or 22% could make a difference in tight races. (This is not something pollsters are taking that much into account: 20% of the sample of SUSA’s latest poll from North Carolina is African-American, which is approximately the 2004 level.)

—

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is paying a huge amount of attention to Florida - a remarkable development given that the state was the one place Obama appeared to be weaker than a generic Democratic when he wrapped up the nomination. We got our first hint of this in September when David Plouffe announced his campaign’s huge budgetary commitment to Florida; then, Obama camped in the state for a fewy days while preparing for the first debate; and he held a number of rallies last week to coincidence with the start of early voting, including one with Hillary Clinton.

Yesterday was further proof of Obama’s dedication to winning the state’s 27 electoral votes. This is the state in which he held his first joint appearance with Bill Clinton, and his 30-minute infomercial ended with a live address from… Florida. Now, Obama is sending in Al Gore to campaign on his behalf in the Sunshine State, confirming the impressive network of surrogates he is deploying.

While the amount of attention lavished on Florida might be surprising given that Obama’s chances appear far better in Virginia, Colorado and Nevada (any one of which would suffice if Obama all blue states), one reason for these efforts might be that Florida’s demographics are different than those of other states, so that even if McCain somehow manages a comeback in a state like Pennsylvania, that does not mean he can pull off a similar reversal in Florida. And given how many electoral votes the state has, a victory here would leave McCain with no path to victory - not to mention what Democratic gains in the state could mean for upcoming election cycles.

Furthermore, Obama’s dedication to Florida has forced the McCain campaign to invest a large amount of resources to a state they were hoping to win easily; given that this state is a money pit with a high number of expensive media markets, Florida’s competitiveness has ruined the McCain campaign and prevented them from investing in other crucial swing states. Now, McCain appears to have convinced Charlie Crist to take a more active role on his behalf, as the Florida Governor (who played such a crucial role in McCain’s primary victory at the end of January and who was on the Republican VP list) has cut an ad touting the Republican nominee:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6bch821eRc"]

The McCain campaign’s stunning decision to accuse Obama of anti-Semitism (with their offensive on Khalidi, their charge that Obama is paling around with anti-Semites and their transparent allusion to Reverend Wright) is another tactic aimed at Florida via its substantial Jewish vote.

NRCC’s new expenditures boost defense, play some offense

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-03, CO-04, FL-08, FL-24, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, KS-02, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MN-03, MN-06, NC-08, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NV-03, NY-29, OH-02, OH-15, OR-05, PA-03, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, TX-22, VA-02, VA-05, WA-08, WI-08, WV-02 and WY-AL

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As expected, the NRCC posted most of their expenditures after the first round of spending I documented yesterday morning, and their decisions on where to spend money over the final week offers us a wealth of information on which districts Republicans thinks are still winnable, which they are resigned to losing, and which they are feeling some confidence in. Meanwhile, new expenditures posted by the DCCC confirm Democratic determination to expand the map.

First, Democrats are not giving up and Republicans are not feeling overconfident in two of the most endangered Dem-held seats: TX-22 and PA-11. Both are rated lean take-over in my latest ratings, but both parties are heavily investing. The NRCC poured more than $700,000 against Rep. Nick Lampson in Texas (bringing its total to more than $1 million) and more than $270,000 against Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania. Both districts have appeared to be gone for months now, so it is somewhat puzzling that the DCCC has not abandoned these incumbents; it just spent $600,000 in Texas (for a total of $1 million) and more than $200,000 in Pennsylvania (for a total of $2.3 million).

The NRCC played offense in a few more districts, spending more than $300,000 in KS-02 and LA-06 and around $100,000 in AL-05 and WI-08. The rest was devoted to defense: $506,000 was just spent in WA-08 (bringing the total above $1 million), more than $400,000 in FL-25 and MI-07 (bringing the total in the latter to $1.5 million), more than $300,000 on in FL-08, NJ-07, OH-15, more than $200,000 in NY-29, MN-03 and OH-02, and more than $100,000 in AL-02, ID-01, NJ-03, PA-03 and VA-02. (Note that the NRCC had already reported six figure buys yesterday in WY-AL, NE-02, IN-03, MO-06 and MO-09).

A few notes about these districts: This is the NRCC’s first ad buy in FL-08, a seat that I recently moved to the lean take-over category - albeit the race remains highly competitive. The DCCC just released its first ad for the race yesterday, meaning that both committees are moving in Orlando for a last-minute push. Furthermore, it is fascinating to see which highly endangered open seats the NRCC is contesting and which it is not: OH-15, NJ-07 and NJ-03 at one point looked like they would be easily Democratic pick-ups, but the GOP candidates have proved resilient and the NRCC is providing some help; open seats candidates in OH-16 or NM-01 have been completely abandoned. As for Erik Paulsen, he can thank Michelle Bachmann for her anti-Americanism rant, as that led the NRCC to move resources out of MN-06 and into MN-03.

In fact, even more interesting than the seats in which the NRCC is spending are the seats in which they are not: Given the NRCC’s budgetary constraints, they cannot afford to spend on seats in which there isn’t a very clear and accessible path to victory. As had already been reported but not yet confirmed, the NRCC is spending no new money in CO-04, all but abandoning Rep. Musgrave; there also appear to be no new ads in NV-03 and NH-01, which is more of a surprise. The NRCC’s new buy in KY-02 is two thirds smaller than it was the previous week, which is probably more of a sign of confidence than of despair. And the NRCC has still spent no money whatsoever in a number of highly competitive seats: AZ-03, IL-10, IL-11, FL-24, MD-01, NC-08 or NM-01, for instance. (The DCCC has spent more than $1 million in each of these districts.)

Meanwhile, the DCCC’s latest spree lavishes resources on two top contenders - Darcy Burner gets more than half-a-million in WA-08 and Kathy Dahlkemper gets almost $400,000 (for a total of more than $2 million) in PA-03. But as noticeable are the DCCC’s expenditures in long-shot districts in which they only started investing last week: $350,000 goes to VA-02, almost $300,000 to VA-05, to WV-02 and to WY-AL. Smaller sums go to playing defense in OR-05 and PA-10.

Not all publicity is good publicity, however. A day after Elizabeth Dole provoked the type of firestorm that is very likely to backfire with her ad “accusing” Kay Hagan of atheism, Minnesota’s GOP is facing similar bad press over allegations that they darkened the skin of Democratic candidate and Indian-American Ashwin Madia (MN-03). Such charges are unlikely to cause much movement if they remain topics of discussion on blogs, but at least one TV station devoted a segment to this in their local news (watch video here), getting independent experts to confirm that images of Madia were in fact darkened. Paulsen’s campaign got in trouble earlier this fall for insisting that Madia did not “fit the demographics” of the district, in what serves as a reminder that the presidential race could have gotten far uglier. [Update: Politico's Reid Wilson is far more skeptical of Democratic complaints than that TV station.]

In MN-06, finally, the DCCC’s second ad hitting Michelle Bachmann once again makes no mention of the anti-Americanism controversy - nor does it need to, since the comments have already gotten wide play in the district. What Democrats now need to do is convince voters that Bachmann is extremist on substantive issues as well, and for the second ad in a row the DCCC is focusing on one issue: regulation.

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q740nXMu0ZI"]

In the other district in which an incumbent’s recent words have gravely endangered his reelection prospects, the NRCC has released a very hard hitting ad against Rep. Jack Murtha (PA-12), playing footage of his declaring that Western Pennsylvania is “racist” and “redneck” to make the case that Murtha does not “respect us:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSmUQdZG2D4"]

Murtha and Bachmann’s races both appear to have turned into highly competitive seats over the past two weeks. Will they balance themselves out on Election Day? Given his seniority and the fact that he is a very entrenched incumbent, Murtha is far more likely to survive than his opponent - though he certainly is not helping himself.

Quite a day: Obama celebrates Americana, Bill offers testimony and GOP attacks on experience

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in Ads and Nat-Pres

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We might be in the final stretch of the election, but it feels like we are right back in the middle of August - when Barack Obama was being called “Barack America” by his running mate and John McCain, unencumbered by Sarah Palin, based his entire campaign on blasting Obama’s lack of experience.

We won’t know whether Barack Obama’s 30-minute infomercial has any impact until we get a sense of how many people watched it. But at the very least it allowed Obama to suck all of the oxygen out of the room - a huge benefit given that McCain needs to exploit every single minute of the next five days to turn the tide and discredit Obama.

With this massive ad buy (followed by Obama’s first joint event with Bill Clinton), Obama controlled the entire news cycle - not to mention that tonight’s events will continue being discussed tomorrow, shutting down McCain for a while longer.

The infomercial was meant to reassure those who still harbor doubts about the Democratic nominee, make them see him as a familiar, comforting and typically American figure. “My mother, she told herself,” says Obama in the video, “my son is an American so he has to understand what that means.” American flags were on display throughout the 30 minutes, and the video was filled with the touching (and often tragic) stories of middle-class Americans.

The video was able to create a sense of connection between Obama and the average voters who were showcased by having Obama be the narrator of their life stories. Not only did that make Obama seem personally invested in helping the middle class, it also created a powerful connector between the ad’s personal segments and those devoted to substantive discussions. The infomercial made Obama’s policy proposals look like direct responses to the plight of the middle class.

It is no coincidence that bread and butter issues were at the center of this video. Sure, there was a segment devoted to national security, but the main themes were health care (a lot of health care), education, taxes, jobs - all issues that are the chief reason Obama is in such a commanding position, issues that have helped move Reagan Democrats to Obama’s side, issues that have greatly contributed in pushing a large number of disaffected Republicans in the undecided column.

Tonight’s segment was not meant to get out of the vote or energize the base, it was Obama’s final attempt to make his case to undecided voters - most of which at this point lean conservative. The Obama we saw tonight was the pragmatist problem-server of the 2004 convention speech and of the beginning of the primary campaign, not the more partisan Obama of the past few months. From now on, both campaigns are likely to switch to GOTV and focus on motivating the base; the last few days before Election Day are not the time in which campaigns go after undecided voters.

All of this said, I don’t think the infomercial was a home-run for Obama either. For one, we will have to see whether there is some backlash among the electorate - after all, the McCain campaign has been accusing the Democrat of being too excessive for months now. Obama’s attempts to make himself look presidential might vindicate in the minds of some voters the GOP’s argument that the Democratic nominee think he has already won the election: It almost looked like Obama was addressing the nation from the Oval Office! And while the video’s production quality was undoubtedly top notch, some parts seemed a bit disjointed.

But Obama had another opportunity tonight to reassure the voters who are looking to vote for him but are worried about this or that attribute: his first joint appearance with Bill Clinton. The former President off delivered a great performance, and all of his political skills were focused on offering the most sincere sounding testimony on behalf of the man who beat his wife. Clinton was half-turned towards Obama and half-turned towards the audience, creating a bond between the two that only a politician as talented as Clinton could portray on demand.

Clinton looked fully committed to convincing viewers that Obama was ready to take on his legacy - and the fact that such a direct testimony did not come for months made it all the more powerful. (Of course, Clinton has a personal stake in this as well, as he wants to regain his position as a popular elder within the Democratic Party. Obama returned the favor by repeatedly emphasizing how strong the country was during Clinton’s presidency, something he was not so willing to say a year ago.)

Meanwhile, the RNC and the McCain campaign are making a last ditch effort at disqualifying Obama - and they are pushing hard on an argument they abandoned in late August and picked up again two weeks with the RNC’s empty chair spot: experience. The first ad, released by the McCain campaign, makes its argument as clearly as possible - Obama “lacks the experience” and he is “not ready” - and closes with a curious word - “yet:”

The ad is very similar to one the McCain campaign released last week, the main difference being the use of the word “yet.” I agree with Chuck Todd that “yet” is directed at those voters who want the change Obama represents but are afraid that he is too much of a risk today: He will still get his chance, the ad is saying.

The RNC’s ad, meanwhile, is more brutal because it intends to raise voters’ adrenaline by getting them afraid about the future:

The problem for the GOP is that voters feel more comfortable with Obama than they did a month ago and that these ads might be coming too late. As I explained last week, the McCain campaign is solely responsible for having abandoned an argument that was working - but abandon it they did. In fact, the financial crisis helped Obama close the gap on the experience question.

Obama and McCain were tested in the middle of September, and most October polls have shown that voters gave McCain very low marks on his handling of the situation and that they came away with the impression that Obama was more apt at handling a crisis than his opponent! Given that startling change in public opinion, these new ads are as likely to backfire on McCain as they are to hurt Obama.

Poll watch: There is a state-national lag, Obama dominates the Big 3, Stevens falls behind

Published

Taniel

on October 29, 2008

in Uncategorized

. 0 Comments

The tracking polls have somewhat tightened over the past few days, and this is evident from the two candidate’s ranges: Obama was solidly above 50% in most trackings last week, but he has now slipped under that mark in three out of the seven polls. More noticeable is the uptick in McCain’s range: I have repeatedly pointed out that McCain is stuck in the low 40s, but he is slowly inching upward as five of the seven trackings show him at 44% - with Hotline finding him at 42% and Rasmussen at 47%.

That said, these are all slight changes that would need to be confirmed in the coming days. Collectively, they leave Obama firmly in command with six days to go. More importantly, Obama is as dominant as ever in the day’s state polls.

But here is where we have to pause for a minute and ask ourselves: are these state polls up to date with the latest national data ? In other words, are they taken over the same period? The national tracking polls suggest that there has been some tightening over the past three days only (Research 2000, for instance, has much tighter margins in Sunday, Monday and Tuesday’s samples than in those of the previous nights), so would state polls have already caught a tightening over these past three days?

Despite Nate Silver’s argument this afternoon that there is no lag between national and state polling, the day’s polling suggests that there is such a lag. Most of the state surveys released today were conducted before the tracking polls: The AP/GfK and the Quinnipiac polls ended on Sunday and were conducted over a four to five day period in which national polls found a big Obama lead; the CNN/Time polls were conducted through yesterday, but they went in the field on Thursday, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the last three days; the situation is the same for the Franklin & Marshall poll or Marist’s Ohio poll. The only state polls that have been entirely conducted since Sunday are Marist’s Pennsylvania poll (which has a big Obama lead) and Rasmussen’s three polls from MI, MN and NM, all of which show McCain gaining between 3% and 6%.

This is not to say that the race has tightened, only that we have very few data points at the state level with which to compare the national polls. So for Obama supporters who are worried that the race might have tightened since Sunday because of what they see in the latest Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and Research 2000 surveys, most of today’s state polling cannot offer much comfort.

What should comfort Obama supporters, however, is that the gap is still huge in the states McCain needs to win, and that a 2-3% tightening nationally would barely make a dent in Obama’s lead in the Big Three states: Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. Obama leads by double digits in four Pennsylvania polls - one of which was conducted over the past two days. And he posts commanding leads in Virginia and in Colorado in four new polls released today.

The second tier of Obama pick-up opportunities still look good for Obama: The second Nevada poll in two days finds him leading by double-digits, a huge gap for McCain to close. (Remember that winning Nevada in conjunction with Colorado and Virginia would mean that Pennsylvania no longer matters.) Obama also posts healthy leads in Ohio - though none of the three polls was in the field after Sunday.

And the tightest states that look like true toss-ups continue to be states Obama does not need and that McCain is stuck defending: Missouri and North Carolina are both dead heats in today’s surveys. On the other hand, Obama posts huge leads in blue states that looked competitive just a month ago, including NH, MN and MI. On to the full roundup:

National tracking polls: Obama loses 2% in Rasmussen (50% to 47%), 1% in Research 2000 (50% to 44%), 1% in Hotline (49% to 42%), 1% in IBD/TIPP (47% to 44%). The race is stable in Zogby (51% to 44%, though Obama gains 1% in the RV and LVT model). He gains 1% in Zogby (49% to 44%) and Washington Post/ABC (52% to 44%). Obama’s leads thus are: 3%, 3%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 8%.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads 52% to 41% in the latest Morning Call tracking poll, a 1% drop since yesterday. Obama leads 52% to 39% in a Marist poll conducted Sunday and Monday. He leads 53% to 41% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday, a 1% drop since the week before. Obama leads 53% to 40% in a Franklin & Marshall poll that started running Tuesday the 21st (8 days ago) through Sunday. Obama leads 52% to 40% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

Virginia: Obama leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 10% two weeks ago. Obama leads 49% to 42% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

Colorado: Obama leads 53% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 4% two weeks ago. Obama leads 50% to 41% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

Nevada: Obama leads 52% to 40% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

Ohio: Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Marist poll conducted over the week-end (he led by 4% two weeks ago). Obama leads 51% to 42% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday; he led by 14% the week before. Obama leads 48% to 41% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

Florida: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 5% two weeks ago. Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday; he led by 5% the week before and by 8% in the preceding poll. Obama leads 45% to 43% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

Missouri: McCain leads 50% to 48% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 1% two weeks ago.

North Carolina: Obama leads 48% to 46% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

New Mexico: Obama leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll.

Michigan: Obama leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday; he led by 16% two weeks ago.

New Hampshire: Obama leads 58% to 34% in the UNH tracking poll. Obama leads 55% to 37% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

Minnesota: Obama leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday; he led by 15% two weeks ago.

Georgia: McCain leads 52% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 8% two weeks ago.

Washington: Obama leads 56% to 39% in a SUSA poll. Obama leads 49% to 37% in a Strategic Vision poll.

Safe states: Obama leads 63% to 33% in a SUSA poll of Delaware. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. Obama leads 62% to 33% in a SUSA poll of New York. McCain leads 57% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Alaska.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

Mark Begich leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of the Alaska Senate race. Stevens led by 1% three weeks ago.

Norm Coleman leads 43% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota’s Senate race, with 14% for Barkley (who loses 3%). For the first time, it appears that Barkley is taking more votes from Franken than from Coleman in what (if it is confirmed) could be Franken’s undoing. Franken led by 4% two weeks ago.

Kay Hagan leads 47% to 43% in an AP/GfK poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.

New Hampshire Senate race: Jeanne Shaheen leads 48% to 40% in the UNH tracking poll; she leads 47% to 41% in an AP/GfK poll.

Mark Udall leads 48% to 36% in an AP/GfQ poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

Mark Warner leads 58% to 32% in an AP/GfQ poll of the Virginia Senate race.

Two new polls in Washington’s gubernatorial race have a 2% margin: Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in SUSA and 49% to 47% in Strategic Vision.

Incumbent Governor Jim Douglas leads with 47% to 24% to independent candidate Anthony Pollina and 23% to Democratic nominee Gay Symington in a Research 2000 poll of Vermont. If no candidate crosses 50%, the legislature will have to vote on the winner; even though the legislature is controlled by Democrats, they would be likely to pick Douglas if he comes ahead (as they did in 2002).

In MN-03, GOP nominee Erik Paulsen leads 45% to 44% in a new SUSA poll. Democrat Aswhin Madia had a 3% lead three weeks ago. A third party candidate gets 9%, drawing far more votes from Democrats than Republicans.

In PA-10, Democratic Rep. Carney leads 50% to 35% in a Lycoming College poll. He led by 10% last month.

In NH-01, Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter leads 44% to 42% in the UNH tracking poll, a suspicious 11% drop in one day. No surprise in NH-02, where Rep. Hodes leads.

A lot of Senate polls were released today, and they bring some good news for both parties. Democrats confirm that they are in command of Colorado and New Hampshire’s Senate races, and the first post-verdict survey of Alaska suggests that Stevens is now the clear underdog. However, the poll also underscores that Stevens is not out of the game - and if he trails by 8% in the immediate aftermath of his conviction, he could still make up some ground. Furthermore, Rasmussen finds Coleman gaining a day after he showed Wicker pulling away. The Minnesota Senate race is still wholly unpredictable (and will remain so because of the Barkley factor), but Democrats aren’t at 60 yet.

In Senate races, it’s the season of bizarre ad wars

Published

Taniel

on October 29, 2008

in AK-Sen, KY-Sen, NC-Sen and OR-Sen

. 4 Comments

We will need to be removed from the excitement of daily ad releases to get a sense of which 2008 ads will be remembered as the most vicious, but Elizabeth Dole’s spots will certainly be in contention. A few months after portraying Kay Hagan as a yapping dog, Dole is now airing an ad accusing her opponent of… atheism:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JkxTv4SQww"]

In September, Hagan attended a fundraiser in Boston sponsored by 30 people and organized by fundraising powerhouse ActBlue; the event was held at the home of one of the founders of Godless Americans PAC, a group that works to remove religious references from the public sphere. Dole’s ad features footage of members of that group appearing on various shows to defend their position before connecting all of them to Hagan.

In what is surely the ad’s most twisted moment, an image of Kay Hagan appears at the end of the spot while a woman’s voice says “there is no God.” The juxtaposition is meant to suggest that the voice is Hagan’s, when it is not hers. (Demonstrating further that Dole is channeling Jesse Helms, whose seat she occupies, this ad comes just a few days after Dole sent out a gay baiting mailer to North Carolina households.)

Needless to say, it is difficult to win as an atheist anywhere in America - even more so in a state like North Carolina that remains conservative - so the attack could hurt Hagan if it takes hold. That said, such brutal ads are even more likely to backfire by making a candidate seem excessively nasty and desperate, especially if the media jumps in to point out that the ad’s problems.

An attack is is unlikely to work unless it latches on an impression voters already have of a candidate and reinforces their doubts. In this case, there seems to be very little in Hagan’s background that can confirm the ad’s “accusations,” as Hagan appears to be a regular attendee at her Presbyterian Church and as her pastor has already cut a radio ad on her behalf.

In Kentucky, meanwhile, Bruce Lunsford is running an ad in which a Mitch McConnell impersonator is chased around by two threatening dogs who are first made to sniff a book entitled “McConnell’s record:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC8QSGvRDLE"]

As bizarre as this ad is, Politico points out that it is a quasi-exact remake of an ad that McConnell ran against the Democratic incumbent he was facing in 1984. That might make it difficult for the GOP to accuse Lunsford of anything else than copying them, but threatening to let the dogs out on your opponent doesn’t strike me as the most gracious campaigning tactic.

In Oregon, finally, Gordon Smith’s new ad underscores just how precarious his position is. Smith devotes the last third of his ad to attacking Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow as being “too liberal:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM_PNMhbtGo"]

Why would Smith waste his time on a candidate who is polling in the mid-single digits (5% in the latest SUSA survey)? Oregon Republicans have been grumbling for months that Smith went too far to the center by airing ads touting his relationship with Ted Kennedy, Barack Obama and John Kerry - perhaps leading a number of disgruntled conservatives to desert him in favor of the candidate of the (right-wing) Constitution Party. That Smith is now feeling like he has to blast Brownlow illustrates how Smith has put himself in an uncomfortable situation and is now looking increasingly desperate.

Smith’s ads comes in the heels of a new NRSC ad that urges Oregon voters to not give Democrats an undivided government in Washington, making it the second spot the NRSC has run that assumes an Obama presidency. (The first ran in North Carolina.) Don’t forget that Smith that Oregon’s Election Day is not next Tuesday, as all the vote is conducted via mail and ballots need to be returned by that November 4th; in other words, all voters have already voted or are voting right now - making these ads the last salvos in the Oregon Senate race.

Beyond these latest ads, the Senate battle continues in Alaska, and those who thought Stevens would go away quietly will be disappointed. Stevens, now a convicted but not-yet-sentenced felon, returned in his home state today to campaign in the home stretch to Tuesday’s vote and the Anchorage Daily News reports that his campaign is by no means admitting defeat. Their hope is that the conviction will trigger a backlash against “outside influence.”

DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

Published

Taniel

on October 29, 2008

in AK-AL, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-13, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IA-04, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, IN-09, KS-02, KS-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, MO-06, MO-09, MS-01, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-20, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, SC-01, Uncategorized and WY-AL

. 0 Comments

With a week remaining before Election Day, all campaigns and national committees are budgeting their final advertising push and buying media time to last them through November 4th. The DCCC has poured in nearly $15 million in almost 40 districts already this week. More investments are likely to come today and tomorrow, first because the DCCC has left out a number of districts in which it regularly invests and because it appears that the NRCC has yet to make its last round of expenditures. But the DCCC’s $14 million latest spending spree gives us a good idea of which seats Democrats are the most committed to. (Most of the following numbers come from SSP’s always very handy House expenditure tracker.)

In three districts did the DCCC go for broke; all are currently held by the GOP: In IL-10, the DCCC just poured in an impressive $929,279, bringing its total investment in the district to more than $2 million. (This is partly explained by the fact that IL-10 is in the expensive Chicago market). In NV-03, the DCCC bought more than $750,000 of air time against Rep. Porter, bringing its total to more than $2.3 million. And in IL-11, $600,000 worth of advertisement (and a total that surpasses $2 million) should help Debbie Halvorson win this open seat.

Another group of seats - here again predominantly GOP-held - saw massive investments of more than $500,000. Those include the once-safe AZ-03, NC-08, NH-01, NM-01, OH-15 (the total surpasses $2 million in each of these five districts), MN-06 (the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million in two weeks on Bachmann’s seat) and the conservative NM-02 (for a total of $1.5 million). This makes New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter the most protected Democratic incumbent, and confirms the remarkable development by which the DCCC has poured more effort in AZ-03 than in many seats that were more obviously competitive.

Also notable are the DCCC’s expenditures that top $400,000. Here again the list is made up of Republican seats: MD-01, MN-03 and OH-01 (total spending in each now tops $2 million), MI-07 and MI-09 (total spending in each tops $1 million), CA-04 and NY-26. Between $200,000 and $400,000, we have AZ-01 (an open seat that is considered an easy Democratic pick-up but where the DCCC has now spent more than $2 million), CO-04, KY-02, MO-09, FL-24 (all now more than $1 million total), FL-21, FL-25, NE-02, OH-02, NY-29, FL-08, IN-03 and IN-09. Rounding up six-figure expenditures are AK-AL, CA-11, CT-04, LA-06, NJ-03 and NJ-07 (all more than $1 million total), AL-05, ID-01, KS-02.

A few observations about this spending spree. First, the DCCC did not expand the map this week. The only new seat they invested in yesterday is FL-08, a district that has looked highly competitive for weeks and that I just moved to the lean take-over category this past week-end. Also noteworthy is NE-02, where the DCCC’s media buy this week is eight times higher than it was last week. However, there are a number of districts we have been talking about lately in which the DCCC is not playing despite the massive loan it took last week; those include California’s seats, IA-04, FL-13, FL-18 or even SC-01 where the DCCC has not followed up on a small investment it made last week. Furthermore, the national committee appears to have given up on MO-06, which was once considered a top opportunity but in which the DCCC has not bought air time for two weeks now.

Second, Democrats seem to be very comfortable about playing defense. They have largely pulled out of AZ-05, AZ-08 or MS-01, all districts that the GOP had high hopes of contesting; they have not had to spend a dime in places like KS-03 or NY-20, seats Republicans had vowed to contest. And they do not seem to feel particular energy in many of the blue seats in which they are investing. However, we do know that the DCCC is starting to air this ad in PA-12 on behalf of Murtha, though they have yet to report that expenditure.

The NRCC, meanwhile, posted a few expenditures over the past two days though a lot more should come tonight. Noteworthy investments include $375,000 spent in WY-AL, more than $250,000 in NE-02 and MO-09, more than $100,000 in MO-06, IN-03. What do all these districts have in common? They are extremely heavily Republican (Bush won IN-03 with 68% of the vote, for instance, and let us not even talk about WY-AL) and Republican candidates are in such a bad state that the NRCC is forced to spend its money in such districts.

(There is something to be said against the NRCC’s decision making, and we might talk about this more in the coming week: Swing seats like NM-01 or OH-16 will likely be lost for a decade or more if Democrats pick them up, yet the NRCC is not spending a dime there. Conservative seats like WY-AL or IN-03 would be likely to fall back into GOP hands in the coming cycle or two, but the NRCC is spending all of its resources in such places.)

Let’s take a closer look at Southern Florida, where the battles in FL-21 and in FL-25 have become truly vicious. Both seats are in the same Miami media market, and they are represented by the (Republican) Diaz-Balart brothers. So Democrats have decided to save money - and just air an ad targeting both Diaz-Balarts:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpMgxd3aiWo"]

The GOP’s response in FL-25 is also fascinating because it bears such a close resemblance to what is going on in the presidential race. Democratic candidate Joe Garcia is blasted for being in favor of “redistribution of the wealth,” underscoring how much Republicans are banking on Joe the Plumber at this point:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTm91xZQhl0"]

Twitter

Specter's sure getting rewarded for his prominent role in derailing EFCA. RT @Politicspa PSEA backs Specter: http://bit.ly/9rEqvF

Lincoln becomes first AR candidate to go negative... in the very ad in which she accuses Halter of going negative! http://bit.ly/buhyI5

@danielnewhauser: Many people (me included!) would argue season 4 & parts of S5 are stronger than S2 & most of S3.

Monserrate's 33% is depressing. RT @SwingState: Peralta is crushing disgraced ex-Sen. Monserrate in Queens. http://ssp.bz/9MHcfn

@benpolitico: The segment above is a National Republican Trust ad, not a segment from CNN.

Pennsylvania Senate kills anti-gay marriage amendment on 8-6 vote: http://bit.ly/aoyKKV

Campaign Diaries

Monthly Archive for October, 2008

Poll watch: Obama dominates CO, ties AZ, ND and IN; Wicker and Merkley solid, Franken alive, Stevens drowns

Congress: Hillary’s impact, Dole’s second godless ad, Stevens’ plea and the NRCC’s hit on Murtha

Battleground watch: Race heats up in Arizona, McCain scales back turnout efforts

Abortion, gay marriage, transit and tax props piment state ballots

Poll watch: Dems still far from 60, and is NV in the same tier as CO and VA?

Lawsuits flying in Senate races

Battleground watch: Early voting surges in CO and NC, campaigns focus on Florida

NRCC’s new expenditures boost defense, play some offense

Quite a day: Obama celebrates Americana, Bill offers testimony and GOP attacks on experience

Poll watch: There is a state-national lag, Obama dominates the Big 3, Stevens falls behind

In Senate races, it’s the season of bizarre ad wars

DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

2010: Governor Rankings

2010: Senate Rankings

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