Comments on: Poll watch: Obama up in pre-debate trackings, McConnell and Porter in danger

By: dsimon

dsimon — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 18:13:11 +0000

I serioiusly doubt that this race is truly competive, if only because the DSCC isn’t spending any money in Kentucky

Not sure if one can conclude much from the presence or absence of DSCC spending in KT. Lunsford has considerable wealth and can at least partially self-fund his campaign. So the DSCC won’t throw money into the race when Lunsford can do so himself.

Whether the race is truly competitive, who knows? I thought it was out of reach, but the polls say what they say.

By: Mainiac

Mainiac — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 01:53:36 +0000

Yes, Taniel, both actually. Allen’s advertising has been much better than early on, And recently more effective (and all-pervasive it seems), than Susan Collins’ (whose campaign, for some reason, keeps running the same two fairly tedious commercials on all Maine TV outlets). And yes, there’s definitely more on the ground presence, and for some reason suddenly more ENTHUSIASTIC activity. Lawn signs have sprouted like dandelions for Obama and Allen, in the past week, in northern, southern, eastern, western (well, you get the point…all over) Maine. And Allen seems energized and on-message, slamming Collins’ connection to Bushonomics and CEOs (I mean, her two endlessly-repeated ads I mentioned above both include endorsements FROM CEOs…how tone-deaf can you get?), as well as the billions spent in Iraq while Maine’s economy tanks (his tagline: “It’s time to take care of our own” appears to be actually penetrating the noise). All this while the Collins campaign seems suddenly unfocused. Stay tuned.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 01:17:07 +0000

Mainiac,

Why do you say that? Are there more Democratic ads visible, more on the ground presence? Maine’s Senate race has been one dull ride so far indeed.

By: Mainiac

Mainiac — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 01:11:23 +0000

More possibly good news for Democrats (though this is a totally unscientific “sense” friends and I are all getting): It feels as though things are finally starting to move, here in Maine, for Tom Allen over the past 5-7 days or so. I’ll be very interested to see if polling picks up on what may be a tightening race between Allen and Senator Collins. Allen’s campaign has seemed dead in the water for months, but could FINALLY get interesting.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 01:09:18 +0000

I serioiusly doubt that this race is truly competive, if only because the DSCC isn’t spending any money in Kentucky, and the emergence of New Hampshire and Colorado being more competive probably means that they can’t afford to spend money in a race in which McConnnell has a definite advantage.

The NV-03 internal poll for Porter shows that he really is in great danger. In particular it can be important in 2010, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is up for reelectoin and polls have shown him to be pretty unpopluar, and therfore vulernable. However, to take him out, the GOP would need a strong challanger, and Porter, representing a swing district, would probably be the GOP’st likelist and most potent opponent. However, if he loses the race, he will lose his appeal as a contender, and that would help Reid alot.

By: Tom B

Tom B — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 23:38:06 +0000

Wahoo! Pardon me as I relish the thought of McConnell losing his Senate seat. (I’d love to get Daschle’s reaction to the news.) Of course, this is only the second poll, so time will tell how reliable it is in predicting October’s political winds. Obama will most likely not carry Kentucky, though I wonder what effect, if any, last night’s debate had on the race. It is truly stunning to consider ten vulnearable GOP Senate seats this year.