Campaign Diaries

Barack Obama has been organizing Indiana for months, and I moved Indiana to the toss-up column last week-end. It seems like the McCain campaign has finally taken notice, as Politico reports that the RNC is moving in the Hoosier State for the first Republican advertisements in that state. After North Carolina, this is the second red state this month that the McCain campaign is being forced to invest in - a move that would have been unthinkable a few months ago and that will surely require some financial sacrifices in other states.

Late September is the time a campaign wants to start locking states in and feel secure enough to stop advertising rather than launch an ad buy in a new state that ought to safely be in the red column. But as Obama has been running hard here for months and has pulled even in recent polls, the GOP’s denial was becoming suicidal. Indiana is now firmly on the map of battleground states, just as North Carolina. (The buy will start next week, which means Obama will have the Indiana airwaves to himself for a few more days.)

In fact, the RNC’s Indiana investment is part of a $5 million media buy in 6 states - Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The RNC’s two previous independent expenditures were only aimed at Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, so Virginia’s inclusion is also new. Though certainly not surprising given that the latest polls find a dead heat, it is still a significant development as even the McCain campaign has not always been a full player in Virginia and has let Obama outspend them.

Meanwhile, the day’s presidential polls once again highlight how much McCain has riding on tonight’s debate, and also explains why his campaigns felt compelled to roll the dice two days ago with its campaign’s suspension: Obama continues to inch ahead, expanding his advantage in the tracking polls (even in the shift-shy Rasmussen), taking a lead in Virginia that is outside of the MoE, closing the gap in a number of states like Florida, Missouri.

One bad poll for Obama is ARG’s Colorado survey that finds McCain in the lead, breaking a series of polls finding Obama surging in that state. (The poll’s sample is somewhat in question as it has 3% more Republican respondents than Democrats.) Another good news for McCain is that yet another Montana poll finds him pulling ahead by double-digits, as the Mountain West appears to be returning to its Republican roots.

• Everyone who follows polling data knows how small the shifts are in Rasmussen’s tracking poll, but Obama has just leaped ahead to a 5% lead (50% to 45%), one of his largest advantages in Rasmussen. Obama has also opened up his largest lead yet in Diego Hotline (49% to 42%). In Research 2000, Obama leads 48% to 43%.

• Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia, a dramatic turn-around from trailing by 2% in poll taken last week-end. This is the first time ever Obama has more than a 1% lead in Virginia in a Rasmussen poll.

• McCain leads by 1% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 5% in a poll taken Saturday, and by 5% in a poll taken last week.

• Obama leads 47% to 46% in an ARG poll of Florida. They were tied last week. Obama is competitive because Democrats outnumber Republicans, but McCain has a gigantic 27% lead among independents (who only make up 18% of the sample, so perhaps more Dem-leaning independents than usual identified themselves as Democrats?)

• McCain leads 47% to 46% in a new Research 2000 poll of Missouri. R2000 had just polled the state last week and found McCain leading by 4% - that was barely outside of the MoE, today’s margin obviously isn’t.

• McCain leads 48% to 46% in a SUSA poll of Missouri. He has a more solid party loyalty and leads by 8% among independents.

• McCain leads 48% to 45% in an ARG poll of Colorado. Obama has a slight lead among independents.

• Obama leads 48% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of New Hampshire. Three polls released yesterday all had Obama up 1%.

• Obama leads a narrow 47% to 43% lead in a Mulhenberg College poll of Pennsylvania

• McCain leads 52% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of Montana, a margin similar to what we saw with Rasmussen earlier this week.

• Obama leads 53% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of Oregon.

• Safe states: McCain leads 57% to 36% in a Research 2000 poll of Wyoming; McCain leads 54% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of South Carolina; Obama leads 53% to 43% in a SUSA poll of California.

It will be interesting to see whether Obama continues to compete in Montana, and how his campaign deals with Missouri - how will spending evolve there, and will Obama visit much?