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Comments on: Poll watch: Michigan swings Obama, Merkley gains, GOP competitive in Alaska races
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/25/poll-watch-michigan-swings-obama-merkley-gains/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 21 Jun 2018 19:42:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: zoot
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/25/poll-watch-michigan-swings-obama-merkley-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-5669 zoot
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Fri, 26 Sep 2008 02:11:50 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2862#comment-5669 Jaxx is correct on Shea Porter. She was a movement candidate who was swept in on a tide of anti-war sentiment. Unlike Hodes, who quickly consolidated his electionwith an infrastructure and funding, Shea Porter still has a rudimentary admin staff, modest funding with no coherent fund-raising apparatus - most of the fund-raising muscle went to Shaheen or stayed with Lynch - and is the focal point for Union Leader attacks. NH is very volatile and on a bad night, McCain, Sununu and Bradley could all win their races. Lynch is enormously popular but is very cautious about using that for other candidates. Like many other states, at the moment the inchoate rage against the bail-out could migrate in about a dozen different directions. With the late news that McCain may have cratered the earlier agreement and sided with the House rebels on a very different bill, its impossible to guess where public sentiment will take this. Strange Days...... Jaxx is correct on Shea Porter. She was a movement candidate who was swept in on a tide of anti-war sentiment. Unlike Hodes, who quickly consolidated his electionwith an infrastructure and funding, Shea Porter still has a rudimentary admin staff, modest funding with no coherent fund-raising apparatus - most of the fund-raising muscle went to Shaheen or stayed with Lynch - and is the focal point for Union Leader attacks.

NH is very volatile and on a bad night, McCain, Sununu and Bradley could all win their races. Lynch is enormously popular but is very cautious about using that for other candidates. Like many other states, at the moment the inchoate rage against the bail-out could migrate in about a dozen different directions. With the late news that McCain may have cratered the earlier agreement and sided with the House rebels on a very different bill, its impossible to guess where public sentiment will take this.

Strange Days……

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By: Taniel
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/25/poll-watch-michigan-swings-obama-merkley-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-5668 Taniel
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Fri, 26 Sep 2008 01:38:52 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2862#comment-5668 Kell, Thanks for the correction, quite an awful mistake indeed! Kell,
Thanks for the correction, quite an awful mistake indeed!

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By: KELL
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/25/poll-watch-michigan-swings-obama-merkley-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-5667 KELL
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Fri, 26 Sep 2008 00:17:33 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2862#comment-5667 Correction: In the MI-07 race, Schauer is the challenger against Rep. Walberg, a far right-wing conservative who took out a moderate Republican last term. This poll shows Schauer up 6% at 42% to 36%, versus being down to Walberg by 3% in May. So it is not a worrisome result for Schauer, but it is a worrisome result for the incumbent Walberg since he was in the lead by 3% in May. Correction: In the MI-07 race, Schauer is the challenger against Rep. Walberg, a far right-wing conservative who took out a moderate Republican last term. This poll shows Schauer up 6% at 42% to 36%, versus being down to Walberg by 3% in May. So it is not a worrisome result for Schauer, but it is a worrisome result for the incumbent Walberg since he was in the lead by 3% in May.

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By: Jaxx Raxor
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/25/poll-watch-michigan-swings-obama-merkley-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-5666 Jaxx Raxor
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Thu, 25 Sep 2008 23:23:41 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2862#comment-5666 It looks like Shea Porter is in great trouble as she is a liberal Democratic in a swing district that happens to lean Republican (if not barely Republican). Also her election was widely seen as a major upset and its possible that the electorate is going into correction mode in leaning towards putting Bradley back in office. Even if Shays in CT-4 falls, there is a good chance that there will still be at least one Republican in New England, and it is likely to be Bradley. The Maine Senate race numbers show that the Democrats have failed to make the race competive, despite having a popular congressman of one of only two districts. Probably a big dissapointment, but unlike Chafee, Collins is very popular compared to just ok, and unlike Rhode Island, Maine isn't a Democratic Strong hold. That polls have been showing Obama in single digits in Maine is testement to this fact, althrough both of Maine's district are similar in partisan leanings, so the second district isn't likely to fall to McCain with Obama taking the rest of the state unless polls consistenly show Obama with only a 2 point margin. A 4 point margin allows Obama to barely make it in Maine's second district. It looks like Shea Porter is in great trouble as she is a liberal Democratic in a swing district that happens to lean Republican (if not barely Republican). Also her election was widely seen as a major upset and its possible that the electorate is going into correction mode in leaning towards putting Bradley back in office. Even if Shays in CT-4 falls, there is a good chance that there will still be at least one Republican in New England, and it is likely to be Bradley.

The Maine Senate race numbers show that the Democrats have failed to make the race competive, despite having a popular congressman of one of only two districts. Probably a big dissapointment, but unlike Chafee, Collins is very popular compared to just ok, and unlike Rhode Island, Maine isn’t a Democratic Strong hold. That polls have been showing Obama in single digits in Maine is testement to this fact, althrough both of Maine’s district are similar in partisan leanings, so the second district isn’t likely to fall to McCain with Obama taking the rest of the state unless polls consistenly show Obama with only a 2 point margin. A 4 point margin allows Obama to barely make it in Maine’s second district.

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