Campaign Diaries

As we enter the final stretch of the 2008 campaign, the number of Senate seats that we can expect to be truly competitive in the final weeks still remains unclear. What we do know is that 9 GOP held-seats are highly vulnerable - VA, NM, NH, CO, AK, OR, NC, MN and MS. What we do yet know is whether the GOP will make a serious play for the Democrats’ only endangered seat in Louisiana, and whether Democrats will succeed in putting any other seat in play.

We got an answer to the first question this afternoon, as the NRSC unveiled its first Louisiana buy - with an attack ad hitting Mary Landrieu’s ethics and another accusing “liberal Mary Landrieu” of supporting a plan to grant amnesty to immigrants who are in the country illegally:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhMSPh9YHNU"]

Nothing unusual about these ads except for the fact that this is the NRSC very first attempt at playing offense this cycle. Now, the question is whether the NRSC’s investment comes too late: Mary Landrieu has been hitting John Kennedy for months now with tough hitting ads that seek to portray Kennedy as a “confused politician.” Some of Landrieu’s ads have been particularly effective because they have used Republican memos from the 2004 Senate race (Kennedy ran and lost as a Democrat that year) to go after Kennedy. Kennedy has been forced to air defensive spots, but it’s hard to know where the race stands exactly since this race is rarely polled. (The most recent survey had Landrieu jumping to a comfortable lead.)

Meanwhile, Democratic hopes to put a dozen or more Republican-held seats in play appear all but crushed. This is not to say that for Democrats to have a shot at picking up 9 seats is not impressive (it means that they could reach 60 seats by sweeping all 9 races), but simply that some Democrats had higher aspirations. A number of races the DSCC is keeping an eye on have been disappointingly static. The list also includes Maine, of course, but also Kansas (where early summer polls showed an opening for former Rep. Slattery), Idaho, Nebraska and also Oklahoma (where Andrew Rice has been the victim of some of the cycle’s most vicious ads). We also hear very little from Texas, and it’s never good for a long-shot challenger to be this quiet.

This leaves Democrats with only a few openings. The first is Georgia, where recent polls have found differing margins; whether Jim Martin can have any hope of toppling Saxby Chambliss (a figure many Democrats detest because of his 2002 campaign) depends on whether the DSCC gets involved. But we are now 6 weeks from Election Day, and there are no signs that Chuck Schumer (who boated that Georgia would be a target in August) is looking to jump in the Peach State. (Not that he can really be blamed, since the DSCC already has a lot of races on its plate and since the committee deserves credit for transforming North Carolina into a top-tier opportunity.)

The second race is Kentucky, a contest which has gone back and forth for the past year. It looked like a top target last fall before some of the most attractive Democratic challengers passed on the race. Since Lunsford has been the candidate, polls have generally shown McConnell with a comfortable lead. But today’s SUSA survey showing McConnell leading by only 3% once again opens up the question of whether Democrats have a shot in Kentucky.

There is no question that McConnell is vulnerable - we have known that ever since polls showed him struggling  year ago. And while Lunsford isn’t the strongest candidate to get that job, he has one significant thing going for him: He is wealthy, can self-fund his campaign, which has allowed him to engage in a vicious ad war with McConnell for months now. Lunsford has enough resources to keep the race somewhat competitive for now. And the news might be playing against McConnell as well: As hostility towards Washington is rising (and the financial crisis will do nothing to increase voter confidence), anyone in a position in leadership like McConnell is bound to suffer.

That said, Lunsford is still facing long odds. To have a shot at toppling a Minority Leader, Democrats will need to devote significant attention and resources - something they are not doing for now. And one crucial factor playing against Lunsford is the fact that Obama is likely to be crushed in this state, and McCain’s coattails will help boost McConnell - just as Bush’s saved Sen. Bunning in 2004.