Dems awake to good polls: Obama leads in CO, MI, ties NC; strong numbers for Ohio Dems

It’s early in the morning, but we already have enough survey data for an entire polling thread! Particularly noteworthy are Quinnipiac’s latest release from four battleground states (CO, MI, MN and WI, which all favor Obama), and SUSA’s polling data from four highly competitive House districts in Ohio - especially since SUSA has also released presidential match-ups for three out of those four districts (there again finding good news for Obama).

Overall, this polling roundup brings good news to Democrats, as Obama leads in a number of swing states, posts yet another outside-of-the-MoE Michigan lead, and get some encouraging results from down-the-ballot races as well.

Note that Quinnipiac’s polls are somewhat dated and taken over an entire week (as are most of Quinnipiac’s surveys); they were in the field from the 14th to the 21st - so throughout the financial crisis and its immediate aftermath. But they have a very large sample (more than 1,300 likely voter in each state) and a relatively small margin of error (under 3%). That said, here’s the full roundup of morning’s polls:

  • Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll of Colorado. He trailed by 1% in August and 2% in July; Obama’s edge is outside of the MoE. Obama gets 68% of Hispanics, McCain leads by 7% among whites.
  • Obama leads 48% to 44% in a Quinnipiac poll of Michigan. The margin is the same as late July and is outside of the MoE. 58% of voters say the economy is the most important issue, and respondents think Obama understands that topic better 50% to 38%.
  • Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll of Minnesota, the same margin as in late July.
  • Obama leads 49% to 42% in a Quinnipiac poll of Wisconsin. He led by 11% in late July, but 7% is most definitely on the larger size of recent results.
  • Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Florida. That’s well within the poll’s MoE. Even more encouraging for Obama: he leads by 6% in the Tampa region.
  • The candidates are tied at 45% in a Civitas poll of North Carolina. Two weeks ago, McCain led by 3%; this is in fact the first time McCain has not led in a Civitas poll of this state.
  • Finally, SUSA released House polls from four Ohio districts. In three of them, they also polled the presidential race - and found significant improvements for Obama over Kerry’s performance in each. In OH-01, Bush won 51% to 49% in 2004 (his statewide margin); Obama leads 52% to 43%. In OH-02, Bush led 64% to 36% of the vote in 2004; McCain leads 58% to 39%. In OH-16, Bush won 54% to 46%; McCain leads 48% to 46%. Those shifts would put Obama in a strong position in the statewide race.

Let’s focus in more carefully on two states. First, North Carolina, where the race looks to be tightening indeed: this is the second poll in three days (after PPP’s poll) to find the race tied in the Tar Heel state - something that had not happened since one April survey that looked like an outlier. Second, Michigan: This is the third poll in a row (after Marist and Rasmussen) to find Obama’s lead outside of the margin of error, which should be a huge relief for the Democrat. We will be in a position to talk more about Colorado once PPP releases their poll later today.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • In OH-01, Rep. Chabot leads Democratic challenger Steve Driehaus 46% to 44% in a SUSA poll. Black turnout will be key to deciding this race.
  • In OH-02, Rep. Schmidt leads Democratic challenger Wulsin 48% to 40% in a SUSA poll.
  • In OH-15, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leads 47% to 42% against Steve Stivers in a SUSA poll. Kilroy led by 3% in early August.
  • In OH-16, Democrat John Boccieri leads 49% to 41% against Kirk Schuring in a SUSA poll. Schuring’s favorability rating is far lower, so perhaps the DCCC’s ads are functioning.
  • Elizabeth Dole leads Kay Hagan 43% to 41% in a Civitas poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. Before leaners are included, Hagan was up 41% to 40%.
  • Mark Udall leads 48% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll of Colorado’s Senate race. The contest was tied in July.
  • Al Franken has gained ground but trails 49% to 42% in Quinnipiac’s poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. Coleman led by 15% in July.
  • A stunning internal Democratic poll of ID-01 has Walt Minnick leading GOP Rep. Bill Sali 43% to 38%. One possible problem in the poll is that it is convincing those final 19% of undecided that is bound to be the most difficult for a Democratic candidate in a staunchly conservative district.

OH-15 and OH-16 are among the highest priorities for House Democrats, as demonstrated by the hundreds of thousands the DCCC is already spending in these districts. To be fair to Republicans, many expected them to be in a much worse position in both of these open seats by this time, and the fact that they have managed to keep OH-15 competitive in particular is a testament to Mary Jo Kilroy’s struggles. Kilroy was favored to beat the incumbent in 2006 but narrowly lost, and she now has to battle the high unfavorables that she has left over from that race. OH-01 is a also a top Democratic target (and another narrow 2006 loss), though that contest has always been expected to be tight.

In Senate race, Civitas’s North Carolina numbers are a reminder that Dole still has some life in her but also further confirmation of Hagan’s momentum. Quinnipiac has Coleman leading by a larger margin than other surveys (SUSA, Rasmussen, Minnesota Public Radio) have shown lately, but Quinnipiac doesn’t appear to have included third-party candidate Dean Barkley. As for Colorado, the race has been static for more than a year: Udall is in the lead, but he has not closed the deal

41 Responses to “Dems awake to good polls: Obama leads in CO, MI, ties NC; strong numbers for Ohio Dems”


  1. 1 zoot

    OH-2 is a disappointment though likely not a surprise. Schmidt is very high on the Democratic hit list, given her partisan behavior and nastiness towards Murtha, but her district is extraordinarily conservative, and it would take a significant sea-change to vote her out. Paul Hackett’s 2005 horse-race may be as close as the Democrats come.

  2. 2 Urgon

    Well, it looks like McCain has stopped the bleeding at least - Rasmussen: tie, Battleground +2, and (the very shaky) Hotline -4 in the National Polls.
    I think he still has a chance to recover in crucial states, if he does well in the debates.

  3. 3 Jaxx Raxor

    Rasmussen as always shown the race to be very close: even during the height of McCain’s bounce he only had a 3 point lead and I think that was inside the margin of error. In my opinion, unless Obama makes a major and massive gaffe or some super good moment for McCain comes up, the best McCain can hope for is to keep the race as tight as it is and hope that a moment in which McCain gets a little bit of momentum is on or a few days away from November 4th. Obama on the other hand has opportunity’s to finally put the race away and make the generic race the specfic Obama vs McCain race, althrough I am unsure on this front.

    The polls are all good. Michigan seems to be moving back into lean Democratic territory like it was for the previous elections, while PA is once again emerging as the big battleground state that the GOP wants to take, just like in 2004. Bad news for Obama as Michigan has less electoral votes than Pennsylvania, but at least his support in Michigan (at least at this time) seems to be more solid then they ever were in Pennsylvania. Being up in Florida is huge, because if Obama wins Florida then he could afford to lose both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (which has been trending McCain as is late) and still win the white house if he also wins Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. But I still think that Florida leans more in McCain’s direction, but not as much as Ohio, in which Palin appeals to those conservative Democrats in the state, while Palin may be problems among Jewish voters in Florida.

  4. 4 Anonymous

    Notice how the GOP/Mccain campaign tried to change the subject of the political discussion from the economy to whatever is within McCain’s comfort zone, whether it is “lipstick on a pig” or “sex education for kindgarenters”? That must be why the polls are showing Obama to be in the lead — that the economy is really what he needs to remain as the topic of conversation. And it is amazing that instead of trying to present himself as capable of addressing the economic crisis as president, McCain can only think of distractions as solutions.
    Did anyone also notice Sarah Palin’s indication that she would cooperate with an abuse-of-power investigation if the investigation is handled by people she has the authority to fire? In other words, she can easily and conveniently interfere with the investigation if necessary, because the people investigating her will do so under the fear of losing their job. Just wondering what kind of leader she would appear in people’s minds had this issue been pushed hard in the press and whether thepolls will suddenly go up.

  5. 5 Teezy

    Nice try Anonymous…McCain offered a plan to deal with the crisis, while Obama said he would, but didn’t, then decided to back whatever Bush and Congress agreed on.
    BTW, why is Obama talking about who’s better with email? I guess that must be a pressing issue for voters like yourself. The fiscal markets…and email usage.

  6. 6 Urgon

    This email discussion is ridiculous. Of course no president writes emails! Give me one example of when a president would do that, in his capacity as president? I would be very concerned if the president of the United States spent any of time writing emails, instead of making executive decisions. Let his associates do the paper work.

  7. 7 Urgon

    … and, for the record, I’m a news editor, receiving hundreds of mail and writing at least 50 every day.
    A serious waste of time. In short, email is overrated - and a total waste of time for a Man in Charge who has a whole staff of associates who can deal with it for him.

  8. 8 Teezy

    The allegations against Palin will be investigated by an independent counsel, which she cannot hire or fire. It’s interesting, thought, to see so many lefties ready to condemn her for allegedly reassigning someone who was protecting a state trooper who made death threats and tazered his kid for fun. I guess for them, protecting children and families from violence is just another insincere talking point.

  9. 9 Anonymous

    In my opinion, Obama was merely attacking McCain back for his disgraceful “sex edu” ad. The email literacy question was not a lie, the sex edu ad was. Plus, in this age of information culture, even Russia’s president ordered that all his employees bulk up on computer literacy. So, what is yor problem Teezy?
    Palin initially vowed to cooperate with the legislature, but once she became McCain’s VP pick, she changed course in large part because she wanted to save herself the embarrassment of being guilty of power abuse while being a VP pick. But instead of allowing the Legislature of Alaska to finish its job, she is insisting on secrecy by demanding that the personnel board, as an independent body appointed by thegovernor, probe her case.
    Well, who wants a president that thinks the solution to the economic crisis incldues firing the SEC chief, who has nothing to do with the crisis, and who has a history of deregulation and now supports some form of regulation? Who wants a president with 13 cars and many, many houses and at the same time tries to pretend to be part of middle America? Obama didn’t respond with his own solutions because he doesn’t like quick fixes and prefers to ponder/analyze the situation, whereas McCain jsut coems up with shifting ideas depending on his temperament…

  10. 10 Anonymous

    I must also question Palin’s attempts to suppress press freedom (see the world leader-Palin meeting at the UN, for example). Clearly, she would govern with an air of secrecy like Bush. Isn’t she the one who adores the constitutional right to firearms? It occurs to me she doesn’t appear to be friendly to the Constitution’s freedoms of the press and of religion.

  11. 11 Urgon

    Of course the McCain-campaign is limiting press access to Palin. They would be foolish not to. If Obama slips up slightly, he’s given a pass. If Palin slips up, it’s headline news - however silly.

  12. 12 zoot

    Urgon, the point of the ad was simply his total lack of familiarity with modern technology and by logical extension (or leap), with what’s actually going on these days. The ad may or may not have misfired, but you’re chasing straw dogs here.

    Teezy, in the circumstances, it really behooved both of them to keep their mouths zipped and allow Congress and the Administration (or what passes for one) to deal with what looks like an existential crisis. McCain was on this issue like a dog on a T-Bone, presumably to burnish his somewhat faded economic chops. Obama started down that road, then pulled back and has been rather low-key, other than to drive a stake in the ground about proceeding with caution.

    Turning this problem into a political tug-of-war in a presidential year is a very bad idea. There’s no quick fix here - it will cost us, our children and grand-children a fortune to square this away, and forget about Paulsen’s spin that we’re buying assets. We’re buying a lottery ticket, bits and pieces of financial packages that will take years to unwind.

    The debates are taking on a great deal of significance. The NYT has interesting articles in today’s edition, comparing debating styles and potential pit-falls for each that’s worth a read. In particular, it highlights elements of Obama’s style that may not serve him well on Friday. In the meanwhile, its likely that the polls will more or less flat-line until viewers have absorbed what they’ll hear.

  13. 13 Anonymous

    If you feel there is bias in the way the media reports on the candidates, then why did it take the media to counter Palin’s endless, in-your-face lies? Like the one regarding the “bridge to nowhere” and many others? Free pass until the issue boils in the blogsphere and starts to hurt the media’s credibility.
    While traveling to Europe and the Middle East, Obama has held press conferences and answered fairly tough questions, where’s Palin treis to block the media’s questioning of her during this week’s meeting with world leaders (the campaign, however, relented under pressure). Also note that it is natural for the media to pay more attention to the candidate that is entirely enw to the national spotlight (Obama has been in the limelight for over 20 months now, Palin only came up at the end of August and is entirely new to the national political scene). Therefore, your point about the Palin campaign’s need to curtail press coverage is moot and biased.

  14. 14 Urgon

    ” zoot // September 23, 2008 at 2:24 pm
    Urgon, the point of the ad was simply his total lack of familiarity with modern technology and by logical extension (or leap), with what’s actually going on these days. The ad may or may not have misfired, but you’re chasing straw dogs here.”

    I still think it’s a cheap and silly shot (and even Biden agrees…). I know a lot of “nerds” where I work who knows everything about the latest “hot” internet/networking/whatever technology, but that of course doesn’t make them qualified to make executive decisions. Obama shouldn’t have approved that message.

  15. 15 Tatiana

    Urgon, you have it reversed.
    The point isn’t that anyone who knows how to use technology is qualified to be president (who ever said that?!?) but that you have to know how to use technology to be qualified. It’s a necessary condition not a sufficient one.

  16. 16 Teezy

    “The email literacy question was not a lie, the sex edu ad was.”
    - Wrong. The Obama defense that the ad was a lie and the bill was only about educating children from sexual predators is itself a lie. That was only part of it. As Obama said himself. Did McCain exaggerate the issue? Yes, and I wish he hadn’t, but the Obama and Obamedia response was total b.s., and you bought right into it.

  17. 17 Teezy

    Anonymous,
    If you had bothered to read the article I linked to, you would have seen that the Democratic senator in change of the initial investigation was talking about coming out with an “October surprise” for Palin. Does that sound like someone interested in a fair investigation? To the lefties, possibly, but not to most.
    The media has already been working overtime, along with the assistance of the nutroots, to slime Palin with as many lies as possible about her record AND her family.

  18. 18 Anonymous

    The Obama defense that the ad was a lie and the bill was only about educating
    children from sexual predators is itself a lie. That was only part of it. As Obama
    said
    himself
    . Did McCain exaggerate the issue? Yes, and I wish he hadn’t, but the Obama and Obamedia
    response was total b.s., and you bought right into it.
    The problem with this analysis is that you are taking stuff out of context. I have first read http://www.factcheck.org’s analysis of the sex education ad then re-read the legislation in question. The point that you are missing is that the law provides for “comprehensive sex education” that included teaching techniques to ward off “inappropriate” advances by strangers (in this case, sex offenders). See, you are twisting facts a bit. And it was not Obama who initially accused McCain of not wanting to protect sexual predators, it was Planned Parenthood.
    Now, I have a question. In many onling blogs, I hear mcCain supporters decrying “liberal handout demands”. How about handing out $7000 billion in the form of a bailout of Wall Street — bailing out those responsible for the economic crisis due in large emasure to their reckless purusit of greed?

  19. 19 Urgon

    #

    “Tatiana // September 23, 2008 at 2:54 pm
    Urgon, you have it reversed.
    The point isn’t that anyone who knows how to use technology is qualified to be president (who ever said that?!?) but that you have to know how to use technology to be qualified. It’s a necessary condition not a sufficient one.”

    I don’t agree. I’m extremely internet/mobile/twitter-etc savvy. But that doesn’t make me one bit more qualified to be president. There is also a thing called information overload. I simply don’t think you need to be internet/computer savvy to be a good president. I prefer a guy with good instincts, ideas, ideology and ability to make hard decisions based on hard facts, not internet trash.

  20. 20 Teezy

    “See, you are twisting facts a bit.”
    - Um, no. You misunderstand the bill according to what Obama himself said. It included education about predators AS WELL AS basic sex education which according to Obama would at least include explaining where babies really come from.
    And, I wasn’t referring the stupid allegations against McCain from that pro-abortion group, I was referring to the constant scream of “LIE!”, “LIE!” from the Obama camp in regards the ad itself, which they still continue to this day.

  21. 21 zoot

    Teezy, the economic systems are collapsing around our heads, people are brandishing virtual pitchforks in the on-line forums, Pakistan is sliding towards possible chaos, markets are in a panic and you’re worrying about how much sex ed kindergarteners get? Your priorities are entirely upside down. Keep on playing small bore gotcha games - the rest of the American people have bigger concerns than that. Beyond belief.

    Ugo, Tatiana said it quite clearly. Technical knowledge does not ipso facto qualify you for anything more than geek stuff. Conversely, someone who professes to be suited for public office in radically changing times must - in addition to other qualifications - be at least minimally conversant with universally-utilized technology. It’s not the sole determinant, but it is one of a series of qualifiers.

    Even with his physical limitations, doesn’t the man at least have the intellectual curiosity to spend some time fiddling around with it? Someone who proudly states that he doesn’t have that basic interest in trying it (we’re not talking just about manual dexterity) is telling us he’s really not curious about how it works and how it affects people - in effect, he’s telling us something about his openness to new technologies that may affect our future.

    We’ve had 8 years of someone else with no intellectual curiosity, and I’m not eager to experience that again.

  22. 22 dsimon

    Teezy: The media has already been working overtime, along with the assistance of the nutroots, to slime Palin with as many lies as possible about her record AND her family.

    I’ve seen falsehoods circulating online, but I have not seen them in the mainstream media. It’s improper to paint the media as biased for the deeds done by others.

    The media has revealed that she has plenty of history of requesting earmarks, and that she was fine with the Bridge To Nowhere until it became a political albatross. And Palin kept repeating her claims even after they had been disproved. It’s hardly improper for the media to point that out.

    Seems to me that McCain wants to attack the media and refight the culture wars because he knows his ticket can’t win on the issues. That strategy may work, but let’s not pretend that isn’t the strategy at this point.

  23. 23 Anonymous

    Since McCain kept accusing Obama of being out of touch with the American people, it was imperative that Obama hit back to disprove those silly allegations. One of the ways in which Obama can do is to show how out-of-touch McCain is more than him, and that is by airing the email literacy issue. Since over 200 million Americas use the Internet or email (and the number could be higher) and e-mail has become an integral part of American society, it is necessary that McCain and all future leaders of our nation be, at least minimally, capable of reaching out to ordinary voters through the utilization of universal technologies. To not be minimally able to utilize computer tech shows how out of touch you are with the reality of life in our nation today (in fact it was a Democratic president, Bill clinton, wo helped bring America’s government online).
    Another way to illustrate McCain’s out-of-touch nature is the ad criticizing his 13 cars and many houses. He cannot lie to be part of middle America while lavishing luxury after luxury upon himself and not caring much about the average American. And, that is one of the reasons why he was so quick to address the economic crisis –rushing to say anything voters want to hear without careful analysis of the situatin, thus showing his grasp of the real problems facing ordinary voters.

  24. 24 Teezy

    Zoot,
    I’m not the one that brought up the sex ed issue, that’s Anonymous. I’m just debunking the Obama claim that its a lie. Thanks for the lecture on my priorities, though.

    dsimon,
    The article that was linked has references to CNN, the AP, the NYT, and the Chicago Tribune. I guess you don’t consider those to be part of “the media”.

  25. 25 dsimon

    The article that was linked has references to CNN, the AP, the NYT, and the Chicago Tribune. I guess you don’t consider those to be part of “the media”.

    I don’t consider those three references to be enough to tar the media with an agenda to “get” Palin. Let’s go through them.

    The CNN reference was to a statement that Solidad O’Brian made once. If you missed that segment, you never heard the statement. Doesn’t make it right, but is hardly an indictment of “the media.”

    The AP story was from 1999, so that can hardly be said to be a part of a present-day media conspiracy.

    The NYT piece reported what they were told about Alaska Independence Party membership by the chair of the Alaska Independence Party, whom one would think would be a reputable source on the subject. When the information turned out to be false, the Times published a retraction.

    The Chicago Tribune story actually refutes accusations that Palin asked for specific books to be banned, but states only the correct version that she asked the librarian what she would do if asked to do so.

    So you’ve got in essence one mistake by one mainstream media figure, and one false statement based on a good source which was then retracted. If Palin can’t handle that, good luck with Russia and Iran.

    But blaming the media is a good tactic when there is so little to offer on real issues–health care, the economy, etc. If the McCain campaign would like to focus on those topics, I’m sure the Obama campaign would be more than happy to oblige.

  26. 26 dsimon

    Sorry, four references.

  27. 27 Anonymous

    But blaming the media is a good tactic when there is so little to offer on real issues–health
    care, the economy, etc. If the McCain campaign would like to focus on those topics,
    I’m sure the Obama campaign would be more than happy to oblige.
    ——–
    I completely agree here. The ability of a candidate to handle the media can also showcase the candidate’s diplomatic skills. If Palin stays out of the press, she is in essence shying away from diplomacy. Because the task of the presidency includes being able to negotiate complex situations, answer tough questions when dealing with international crises. Obama has demonstrated a willingness to work on a bipartisan and difficult diplomatic matters not only by frequent press conferences he has held since being in the national spotlight for more than 20 years, but also traveling to various nations and holding a press conference with a head of state and taking tough questions (as in the joint appearance with France’s president).
    Also, the tactic Republicans have traditionally used that has helped win votes based on scare tactics is to paint the media as too biased so that voters will blindly and, as it seems, stupidly agree because they don’t have the time to analyze the allegations of media bias. And the mistakes of one media outlet often amounts to media bias in the eye of the GOP, not an objective observer.

  28. 28 Teezy

    “And the mistakes of one media outlet often amounts to media bias in the eye of the GOP, not an objective observer.”
    - Only the GOP thinks the media is biased against Palin? Wrong again. The majority of the public believes so as well.

  29. 29 Teezy

    I do appreciate the sarcasm about Obama, though.

  30. 30 OchoCincy

    It might be labeled close if this polling firm were more legit. Not including Krikorian, who is pulling more support away from Schmidt by the day? Hello! And this is the same poll that heavily weighted the black vote to get those results. There’s going to be higher turnout this year (which is great), but that poll counts on 100% and, according to the Enquirer, doesn’t account for age (like under 18).

  31. 31 dsimon

    Only the GOP thinks the media is biased against Palin? Wrong again. The majority of the public believes so as well.

    Well, does that make it true?

    A majority of Americans believe that offshore drilling will bring down gas prices. There is no evidence to support that belief. So is it true?

    Going into the 2004 election, 62% of Americans believed Saddam had strong ties with Al Quaeda, despite no evidence to support that belief. Did that make it true?
    http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=508

    One has to do better that “most Americans believe” to determine whether something is actually the case or not.

    And the electoral consequences of a factually informed public would be transformational.

  32. 32 Anonymous

    Only the GOP thinks the media is biased against Palin? Wrong again. The majority
    of the
    public
    believes so as well.
    The reason for that is because the GOP, in being the main media attack dog as its tradition since the mid 20th century, has been successful in influencing public opinion that the media is biased in favor of Obama. So, what public opinion says about the media does not necessarily mean there is media conspiracy, and the objective observer will agree that the GOP is using tactics to pit the public against the media, thus ramping up public belief that the press is being one-sided in its coverage of the election cycle.

  33. 33 Anonymous

    Obama has demonstrated a willingness to work on a bipartisan
    and difficult diplomatic matters not only by frequent press conferences he has held
    since being in the national spotlight for more than 20 years, but also traveling
    to various nations and holding a press conference with a head of state and taking
    tough questions (as in the joint appearance with France’s president).
    My apologies, I meant to say “more than 20 months” and not 20 years.

  34. 34 Teezy

    Let me add the Washington Post and CBS news to the list.
    So, first you deny there is any media involvement, then you acknowledge they are involved, but only a bit. Well, at least I’m getting you closer to the truth!

  35. 35 Teezy

    “what public opinion says about the media does not necessarily mean there is media conspiracy”
    - Media conspiracy and media bias are not the same thing. I don’t believe reporters are holding secret meetings about how they are going to slant their coverage.

  36. 36 dsimon

    Teezy, here is your original media assertion:

    The media has already been working overtime, along with the assistance of the nutroots, to slime Palin with as many lies as possible about her record AND her family.

    To support your assertion, all you’ve come up with from the mainstream media are a few instances that can literally be counted on one hand, hardly an example of working “overtime” much less a coordinated campaign.

    The sum total so far is a blog entry from the Washington Post (not from any print column), another blog entry from CBS News (nothing from its network broadcast), an incorrect on-air statement by Solidad O’Brian which she did not repeat, and a NYT statement from a reputable source which turned out to be incorrect and which the paper retracted. Oh, and an AP piece from 1999, which must have had the great foresight to be considered a preemptive attack on her expected VP nomination almost a decade later.

    If that amounts to “working overtime,” then I’d like to see what regular hours amount to. Such complaints are another example of the McCain campaign repeating something often enough for some people to believe it’s true, regardless of the factual support for the claim. The tactic may work, but that still doesn’t make the claim true.

    Most of the mainstream media critique on Palin has been accurate: the bridge, the plane, the earmarks, her credentials on foreign policy…just comparing her claims to her record. Supporters of the ticket may not like the criticism, but it’s not lying to point out flaws in a candidate’s factual assertions.

    Now, can we talk health care? Or shall we keep talking about the media to distract people again?

  37. 37 Teezy

    Sorry, dsimon. If you were following the thread you would know that I didn’t bring up the media bias issue, which liberals still foolishly deny.

  38. 38 dsimon

    Teezy: If you were following the thread you would know that I didn’t bring up the media bias issue, which liberals still foolishly deny.

    Teezy, I quoted your remark about “the media” working “overtime” to “slime Palin.” I assume you stood by it, whether you brought it up or not. I asked for support, you provided what you could come up with, and I examined your claims and concluded that they amounted to just about zilch.

    Saying that you didn’t bring it up is not a refutation.

    Again, saying bias exists doesn’t make it true. The only study I’ve seen was from George Mason University from the end of July, which found that a greater percentage of Obama’s coverage was negative compared to McCain’s.
    http://www.cmpa.com/Studies/Election08/election%20news%207_29_08.htm

    Sometimes our ideology persuades us to see what we want to see. We have to be careful to make sure our intuition matches reality, and not just buy into the data that confirms our perceptions and reject the data that don’t.

  39. 39 Anonymous

    that’s a great point dsimon just made.

  40. 40 dsimon

    Thanks. And I think that was the biggest problem with the Bush administration: when the fact conflicted with their ideology, they rejected the facts. One can only do that for so long before reality catches up, and the cost can be high.

    There’s nothing wrong with having an ideology. But actions will be more efficient and lead to better outcomes if we’re aware of the built-in bias that we all (or just about all) have and try to guard against it.

    A healthy self-skepticism is a good thing, regardless of one’s politics.

  41. 41 Anonymous

    The problem many people have is that they must get the last insult in all the time. dsimon, you did a great job of stating your case in a factual manner, unlike someone else…

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