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Comments on: Poll watch: Obama can count on NM and IA, gains in MI; 4 VA polls split; Cazayoux, Hagan lead
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/22/poll-watch/ Obsessive political analysis Sun, 22 Jul 2018 12:37:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Taniel
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/22/poll-watch/comment-page-1/#comment-5532 Taniel
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Tue, 23 Sep 2008 03:00:13 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2758#comment-5532 Dannity, you are of course correct, I did mean Democrats. Zoot, 14% of Clinton voters going for McCain isn't particularly high given what we have been seeing in some other states... That's especially the case in a state with an open primary like NH (i.e. it's not like all Clinton voters are registered Democrats). As to the New Hampshire poll, I clearly should have taken a closer look at those internals. Dannity, you are of course correct, I did mean Democrats.

Zoot, 14% of Clinton voters going for McCain isn’t particularly high given what we have been seeing in some other states… That’s especially the case in a state with an open primary like NH (i.e. it’s not like all Clinton voters are registered Democrats).

As to the New Hampshire poll, I clearly should have taken a closer look at those internals.

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By: dannity
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/22/poll-watch/comment-page-1/#comment-5533 dannity
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Tue, 23 Sep 2008 02:18:52 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2758#comment-5533 Florida: "Obama is still under 80% among independents." I'll tell you what, if Obama was pulling 70% of independent voters, he should feel pretty good about his chances. I'm pretty sure you meant Democrats there Taniel. New Hampshire: I'm pretty sure you peeked at the internals of this poll. They're using a +7 Republican voter advantage in this poll with Democrats actually suffering a projected net decrease from 2 months ago for some reason. I'm not sure why they're getting these numbers from. This is a huge partisan change from their previous polls. I'm going to go ahead and ignore this particular "trusted poll" at least until I see some sort of justification for this party breakdown, Florida: “Obama is still under 80% among independents.” I’ll tell you what, if Obama was pulling 70% of independent voters, he should feel pretty good about his chances. I’m pretty sure you meant Democrats there Taniel.

New Hampshire: I’m pretty sure you peeked at the internals of this poll. They’re using a +7 Republican voter advantage in this poll with Democrats actually suffering a projected net decrease from 2 months ago for some reason. I’m not sure why they’re getting these numbers from. This is a huge partisan change from their previous polls. I’m going to go ahead and ignore this particular “trusted poll” at least until I see some sort of justification for this party breakdown,

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By: zoot
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/22/poll-watch/comment-page-1/#comment-5534 zoot
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Tue, 23 Sep 2008 02:15:18 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2758#comment-5534 Have you taken a close look at the UNH poll? Bizarre results. They asked the question two ways - how would you vote if the election was held today, and how do you intend to vote in November. If held today, and excluding leaners, Obama prevails 46-45 and undecideds are at 8%. For November, 20% say they're undecided, and McCain wins, 40-39! Adding in those who favor McCain/Obama but could change their minds, plus leaners, is what gets McCain to 47-45. The race here is still very much in flux. The poll concluded on Sunday, so the first stages of the economic tsunami were given their initial effect. The poll also shows that a full 14% of the Clinton voters from the primary will vote for McCain. That's quite alarming. The top echelon of Clinton supporters has made the move, but if the poll is accurate, the rank and file haven't. That may come from male voters, Reagan Dems, who favor McCain by a wide margin and presumably don't respond much to party leadership's wishes. Have you taken a close look at the UNH poll? Bizarre results. They asked the question two ways - how would you vote if the election was held today, and how do you intend to vote in November. If held today, and excluding leaners, Obama prevails 46-45 and undecideds are at 8%. For November, 20% say they’re undecided, and McCain wins, 40-39! Adding in those who favor McCain/Obama but could change their minds, plus leaners, is what gets McCain to 47-45.

The race here is still very much in flux. The poll concluded on Sunday, so the first stages of the economic tsunami were given their initial effect.

The poll also shows that a full 14% of the Clinton voters from the primary will vote for McCain. That’s quite alarming. The top echelon of Clinton supporters has made the move, but if the poll is accurate, the rank and file haven’t. That may come from male voters, Reagan Dems, who favor McCain by a wide margin and presumably don’t respond much to party leadership’s wishes.

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