Campaign Diaries

Alaska: Ted Stevens’ trial got under way today in Washington D.C., which means that the Alaska Senator is now stuck in the nation’s capital - thousands of miles away from the state in which he should be campaigning for his political survival. (Give that Stevens faces years in jail, he ought to care more about his legal fate, but that is certainly not the focus of his blog.) That said, the trial’s outcome could have more influence on November results than anything Stevens could do in Alaska. The trial is expected to last approximately a month, and the verdict might very well decide Stevens’ electoral fate. It’s difficult to imagine him recovering from a last-minute guilty verdict, but the momentum of being found not guilty could propel him ahead of Mark Begich.

Yet, any delays or procedural fights during the trial could prolong the procedure, in which case we might not have a verdict until after Election Day. Sure, that also means that Stevens would not risk being sunk by a guilty verdict, but given that the incumbent is already trailing Begich, it would also deprive him of his main hope to survive November - an acquittal.

The trial’s first step, of course, is jury selection, and the always-useful Anchorage Daily News posted a PDF of the questionnaire prospective jurors were asked to fill: “What comes to mind when you think of Alaska?” (question 54), “what is your overall opinion of the ethics and honesty of members of the United States Congress?” (question 53). Prospective jurors are also asked whether they have ever had their home renovated and whether they have refused to pay a contractor for his work - a crucial part of the allegations against Stevens.

Minnesota: The GOP is continuing to savagely attack Al Franken. Ten days after Norm Coleman unveiled his spot compiling outbursts by Franken, the NRSC is out with a brutal ad that puts all of the past few month’s allegations in 30 seconds. “Is Al Franken fit for office?” an announcer asks, before detailing Franken’s writing “about committing rape,” his writing “vile pornography,” his use of profanities and allegations of physical assault [Update: Eve Fairbanks notices that the ad's visuals are meant to convey the impression that Franken was photographed behind bars]. The ad concludes, “Al Franken: degrading to women, to us all, frankly unfit for office:”

There is little doubt that Minnesota’s Senate race has become the most negative in the country, as Coleman and Franken have been demolishing each other for months - aided by DSCC and the NRSC spots. Polls over the past few weeks have shown Coleman has lost the edge he had opened in the spring and that the race is a toss-up, suggesting that Franken has been unable to overcome the controversies that plagued him for much of the year. Coleman’s ad from 10 days ago and this NRSC spot are the GOP’s attempt to focus the spotlight on Franken once more to make this a referendum on the former comedian.

That said, there is a risk here for both candidates. If they continue to raise each other’s negatives, Coleman and Franken could play in the hands of third party candidate Dean Barkley (who was briefly appointed Senator after Sen. Wellstone’s death in 2002). Barkley is polling at 14-15% in the latest polls, and he stands to gain some of Franken’s votes if Coleman succeeds in making voters doubt the Democrat. That also means that Coleman could continue losing votes from Republican-leaning voters who might not be comfortable electing a Democrat and who might go for Barkley.

NY-26: Two weeks ago, Alice Kryzan’s upset victory in NY-26’s Democratic primary led to questions about whether the upstate New York open seat remained a top opportunity for Democrats. The DCCC quickly moved to add Kryzan to its red-to-blue list, and Emily’s List endorsed her as well. Now, the DCCC is removing any doubt we might still have had that it is serious about contesting in this seat as it has unleashed an ad hitting GOP candidate businessman Christopher Lee for “employing labor in China.”

As long as the DCCC is willing to do some work against Lee, Kryzan’s victory might end up as a blessing for Democrats. Powers and Davis (who were perceived as the front-runner in the Democratic primary) were blasting each other with tough spots that might have come back to haunt them in the general election, while Kryzan enters the final stretch with a relatively clean profile. The NRCC’s inability to come to Lee’s rescue for now (they have yet to get involved in ad wars) will give Kryzan a head start.

Finances: The congressional committees released their August fundraising report over the week-end, and both parties have some reason to celebrate. On the Senate side, the NRSC outraised the DSCC - which by itself is reason to celebrate. Furthermore, the Democrats’ advantage has shrunk dramatically to only $7 million (the DSCC had $33 million of cash of hand, the NRSC $26), but that is because Democrats spent an impressive $13,5 million in August, against only $4 million for the NRSC. And all evidence suggests that the DSCC’s money has been very useful: North Carolina, Minnesota and Oregon (the main states in which the DSCC spent money) have all considerably tightened over the past few weeks.

On the House side, the DCCC outraised the NRCC by two million and retained a gigantic advantage in cash on hand: $53 million to $14 million. That explains why the DCCC is airing ads in so many districts in  very aggressive expenditures while the NRCC has been unable to do much at all. Democrats will continue to significantly outspend Republicans at the House level, and that will truly be a key factor in the House battle over the coming weeks.