Campaign Diaries

The Palin pick removed Alaska, and the Obama campaign soon came to decide that investing time and resources in Georgia was no longer worth it. Now, Democrats are giving up on a third red state they had targeted throughout the summer: North Dakota.

Not only had Obama ran ads in this traditionally conservative state, but he had also opened offices and hired staff members. Now, all 11 state offices are being shut, and the dozens of Obama staffers are being sent to neighboring Wisconsin and Minnesota - two blue states that have looked increasingly competitive over the past few weeks.

There are two (related) explanations for Obama’s move. The first is that Democrats have to play more defense than they were hoping to, and as states like Wisconsin and Minnesota are becoming more vulnerable Obama has less of a luxury to go on the offense in many states. The second is that North Dakota was no longer looking that promising. Polls throughout the spring and summer found an unexpectedly competitive race, with McCain’s lead generally within the margin of error; a poll released in early September even had Obama in the lead. But the GOP convention has energized the Republican base, and that has had a big impact on a state with deep conservative roots like North Dakota. The last few polls have shown McCain jumping to a double-digit lead.

My fourth presidential ratings were titled “The Battle of the Mountain West.” Now, only Montana remains truly competitive in the region - and even there Obama might have lost some of his momentum. Of course, Obama needs none of these states to get to the White House, and the fact that such news will disappoint Democrats is only a reflection on how much the Obama campaign had raised expectations about its winning in very red states and radically altering the map. On the other hand, the Obama campaign cannot have it both ways: They invested money and opened 11 staffed offices, while McCain had no staffers in the state. Now, they are pulling out, and that is a victory for the GOP.

A state in which Obama has managed to fully draw McCain in, however, is North Carolina. Whatever you think of the Democrats’ chances of picking up this Southern state, there is no question that they have succeeded in getting McCain to spend some of his money here - and possibly even more of his time. And that’s always part of the goal of investing in offense: Force your opponent to divert resources to defense that could have been spend on offense or on defending more obviously vulnerable states. McCain is now spending almost as much as Obama on the state’s airwaves, and he is increasing his staff level. The Herald Sun reports that they are opening new offices in the Tar Heel State, though the Obama campaign keeps a clear organizational advantage.

In other battleground news:

• California Republicans are surprisingly upbeat about McCain’s chances in the Golden State. They point out that the GOP has a much larger operation in the state than Bush did four years ago, and claim that private polls are showing the race within 5%. (The latest independent poll we have seen had Obama leading by 16%.)

• The Boston Globe observed a New Hampshire focus group, found more potential for Obama.

• Another focus group - this one conducted in Florida - finds undecided voters repelled by Palin and leaning towards Obama, albeit unenthusiastically.

• The New York Times reports that Obama-fueled black turnout could be a boost for proponents of Proposition 8, California’s constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

• The Pittsburgh Post Gazette takes a detailed look at why Ohio is still a swing state.

• The Washington Post does the same in Florida and gives the recipe for an Obama victory in the Sunshine State: “First, Obama must produce the kind of huge margins in South Florida… Second, he must avoid a poorer-than-normal showing for Democrats in conservative northern Florida. Finally, he must win the battle for voters across the Interstate 4 corridor in central Florida.” Those are pretty much the same goals Gore and Kerry needed to meet, but it’s a nice reminder.