Comments on: Poll watch: Dead heats in Michigan, Florida as NC poll finds second tie ever; Hagan leads http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/21/poll-watch-dead-heats-in-mi-fl-as-nc-poll-finds-second-tie-ever-hagan-leads/ Obsessive political analysis Sun, 21 Mar 2010 08:21:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/21/poll-watch-dead-heats-in-mi-fl-as-nc-poll-finds-second-tie-ever-hagan-leads/comment-page-1/#comment-5520 Guy Sun, 21 Sep 2008 22:19:42 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2749#comment-5520 Jaxx - getting ND off the table is hardly a victory for McCain. If you had asked people at the start of this year would Montana, Alaska (until Palin) and the Dakotas were possible Obama states you would have been laughed at. So all that has happened is they have reverted to type. McCain is being forced to spend money in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia - three large GOP states he would rather not have to spend time and money in. None of them are necessary for an Obama victory. McCain probably thought his "strength" with hispanics and veterans would make Florida a cakewalk. Jaxx - getting ND off the table is hardly a victory for McCain. If you had asked people at the start of this year would Montana, Alaska (until Palin) and the Dakotas were possible Obama states you would have been laughed at. So all that has happened is they have reverted to type.
McCain is being forced to spend money in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia - three large GOP states he would rather not have to spend time and money in. None of them are necessary for an Obama victory. McCain probably thought his “strength” with hispanics and veterans would make Florida a cakewalk.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/21/poll-watch-dead-heats-in-mi-fl-as-nc-poll-finds-second-tie-ever-hagan-leads/comment-page-1/#comment-5521 Jaxx Raxor Sun, 21 Sep 2008 21:21:51 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2749#comment-5521 I think the Debates, with the first one based on foreign Policy this Friday, will give Obama the opportunity to either start to put the race away or keep it status quo. It's also a oppourtinity for McCain to change the subject from the ecnomny, which is weak in, to foreign policy, which is big strength. On the narrowing of the polls, Obama doing better in Florida (as well as staying competive in North Carolina and Indiana) is good, but the new under the radar dynamics favor McCain, as he has closed gap in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are must win states for Obama. Obama is still favored to win both, but he has to spend alot of time and money to ensure so, which helps McCain in letting pressure of his favored states. Also, many of the states that Obama had wanted to compete in, like North Dakota, are no longer on the table for Obama, which is also a victory for McCain in itself. On the down ballot races, the now enthusastic GOP base is helping the GOP in the secondary and tetatary races. Too little too late for for them to take back either the House or Senate but it can limit thier options and give them a foundation to try for a takeover in 2010 (especially if Obama is the President). I think the Debates, with the first one based on foreign Policy this Friday, will give Obama the opportunity to either start to put the race away or keep it status quo. It’s also a oppourtinity for McCain to change the subject from the ecnomny, which is weak in, to foreign policy, which is big strength.

On the narrowing of the polls, Obama doing better in Florida (as well as staying competive in North Carolina and Indiana) is good, but the new under the radar dynamics favor McCain, as he has closed gap in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are must win states for Obama. Obama is still favored to win both, but he has to spend alot of time and money to ensure so, which helps McCain in letting pressure of his favored states. Also, many of the states that Obama had wanted to compete in, like North Dakota, are no longer on the table for Obama, which is also a victory for McCain in itself.

On the down ballot races, the now enthusastic GOP base is helping the GOP in the secondary and tetatary races. Too little too late for for them to take back either the House or Senate but it can limit thier options and give them a foundation to try for a takeover in 2010 (especially if Obama is the President).

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