Since my last ratings, the presidential race has given heartburn to partisans of both parties. Thanks to the enthusiasm generated by the Palin pick and the momentum of his convention, McCain seized the lead in national polls for the first time of the general election, and with it came strong polling numbers at the state-level. Over the past week, however, Obama has erased McCain’s gains and taken a lead of his own, as the economy-fueled momentum has swung back his way. Now that these dynamics appear to have stabilized, it is time to take a look at the electoral college once more.
While the national numbers are now back to where they were mid-August, before the parties’ convention, there has been movement below the surface. In fact, a number of states appear to have tightened, whether they started blue or red. McCain has been gaining in some Obama-leaning states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington and even New New Jersey all look more competitive than they did a month ago) while Obama has been gaining in some McCain-leaning states (he has closed the gap in Indiana, for instance, and looks more competitive in Florida than he did in August).
Because most of McCain’s vulnerable states were long known to be competitive, it is Obama who loses the most electoral votes in this rating round. As Pennsylvania moves to the toss-up column, Obama’s advantage over McCain is the smallest it has been since June 4th and the Illinois Senator now has to think about playing defense - something that was not on his campaign’s mind throughout the summer. In fact, only 6 electoral votes now separate Obama and McCain - the smallest advantage either candidate has ever enjoyed in the history of Campaign Diaries‘ presidential ratings.
There are now 18 states that are rated lean or toss-up, a testament to how unusually large the playing field remains less than seven weeks from the election and how unpredictable the final tally is likely to be. A small national uptick for Obama or for McCain could be enough to deliver most of the toss-up states to one candidate, so the fact that these projections remain so tight in no way guarantees that there won’t be an electoral college blowout.
Without further delay, here are the eighth electoral college ratings (states whose ratings have been changed are in bold). Remember that states that are in the “lean” category are considered to be very competitive and certain to be hotly contested, but it is possible to say that one candidate has a slight edge at this time.
- Safe McCain: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming (119 EVs)
- Likely McCain: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Nebraska (1st and 2nd congressional districts), North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia (41 EVs)
- Lean McCain: Florida, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina (56 EVs)
- Toss-up: Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia (100 EV)
- Lean Obama: Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin (49 EVs)
- Likely Obama: Maine (at-large, 2nd district), New Jersey (19 EVs)
- Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine’s 1st district, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont (154 EVs)
This gives us the following map and totals:
- Safe + Likely Obama: 173 electoral votes
- Safe + Likely + Lean Obama: 222
- Toss-up: 100
- Safe + Likely + Lean McCain: 216
- Safe + Likely McCain: 160
I will naturally not attempt to provide an explanation for every single one of these ratings and will concentrate instead on those that have shifted over the past two weeks:
Alaska, lean McCain to likely McCain: Sarah Palin’s pick caused me to move Alaska out of the toss-up column in my seventh ratings, but I had left it in the lean column until we got more information. The past three weeks have left little very doubt that Palin’s presence on the GOP ticket has been enough for McCain to address whatever weakness he had in this traditionally red state. Polls have shown McCain-Palin opening up a huge lead in a state Obama had poured money in throughout the summer. This also means that we won’t have to wait until Alaska’s polls close on Election Day - and that’s a good thing for those of us on the East Coast.
Indiana, lean McCain to toss-up: McCain is making a huge gamble by staying out of the Hoosier state. Sure, with all things equal it would be unlikely for Obama to win Indiana while losing Ohio, but all things are certainly not equal when one campaign is pouring resources and organizing and the other is refusing to admit that the state is competitive. Now, polls are showing McCain’s lead is at best within the margin of error; in fact, a survey released by Selzer & Co (a very reliable polling survey) found the Illinois Senator leading this week. The Obama campaign has been building up an organization in the state ever since they turned their attention to the crucial May 6th primary, and that has fueled a massive registration drive: 500,000 new voters have registered since January 1st alone (that represents about 20% of the 2004 electorate). This dramatic expansion of the electorate partly explains how a state Bush won by 21% can now be competitive, and the McCain campaign might come to regret not having taken the warning signs seriously.
Pennsylvania, lean Obama to toss-up: Democrats were hoping that the Keystone state would be more reliably blue than it was in the past two cycles. Spring and early summer polls showed Obama up by comfortable margins, and in few states did Democrats post as significant registration gains as they did in Pennsylvania. But Republicans clearly think otherwise, perhaps fueled by the intuition that Pennsylvania is one of the states in which Obama’s race could hurt him the most. McCain spent $1.6 million advertising in Pennsylvania last week alone, making it (by far) the biggest investment by either campaign in any state. And McCain’s investment appears to be paying off, as recent polls have found that Obama’s lead has vanished. The Big Ten poll and Rasmussen found a tie, while Quinnipiac’s latest numbers show Obama falling from 12% to 3% in three months. Securing Pennsylvania would have allowed Obama to divert his time and resources to picking up Ohio and Florida, but Democrats can no longer afford to feel confident here.
Texas, likely McCain to safe McCain: Bush was no longer going to be on the ballot, the share of Hispanics continues to increase in the state, and a series of spring and summer polls showed McCain’s lead within single-digits. All of this opened the door for Obama to make a move in the country’s biggest Republican state, and one McCain could not afford to spend time or resources contesting. But it’s now mid-September, polls have worsened for Obama and the Democrat’s campaign is now telling its Texan volunteers to travel to New Mexico to help Obama’s campaign in that crucial state. Texas will surely become a bigger focus of presidential campaigns in upcoming cycles - but not in 2008.
Washington, likely Obama to lean Obama: A few months ago, Washington looked to be solidly anchored in the Obama column, but a wave of recent polls have shown McCain gaining. In fact, the race has tightened in a number of states in which Obama once looked relatively secure - those include Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. That said, while McCain is investing millions in those three states, he has stayed away from the Pacific Northwest, testifying to the fact that the GOP still doesn’t believe it can pick up Washington and making it a less competitive “lean Obama” state than the other ones in that category.
West Virginia, safe McCain to likely McCain: In the Democratic primaries, Obama’s most problematic region was the Appalachian - and ever since he got crushed in the Kentucky and West Virginia primaries, no one has given him much of a chance in those two states. But Democrats have been eying West Virginia as of late, with some speculation that the Obama campaign is thinking about moving in the state. It’s getting late, of course, and Obama is an unlikely candidate to reverse the Republican gains in this state that used to be reliably Democratic. But the past two polls show McCain’s lead well within single-digits, so perhaps Obama can find an opening in the closing weeks.
History of Campaign Diaries’ electoral ratings:
- September 20th: +6 Obama (222 for Obama [154 safe, 19 likely, 49 lean] and 216 for McCain [119 safe, 41 likely, 56 lean])
- August 31st: + 16 Obama (243 for Obama [154 safe, 29 likely, 60 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
- August 20th: + 14 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 32 likely, 55 lean] and 224 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
- July 30th: + 38 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 42 likely, 45 lean] and 200 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 35 lean])
- July 16th: +28 Obama (255 for Obama [150 safe, 43 likely, 62 lean] and 227 for McCain [90 safe, 78 likely, 59 lean])
- July 2rd: +11 Obama (238 for Obama [143 safe, 50 likely, 45 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 78 likely, 56 lean])
- June 18th: +22 Obama (238 for Obama [86 safe, 97 likely, 55 lean] and 216 for McCain [87 safe, 87 likely, 42 lean])
- June 4th: +20 McCain (207 for Obama [76 base, 107 likely, 24 lean] and 227 for McCain [97 safe, 77 likely, 53 lean])
good summary Taniel. However, I think FL should be a toss-up state: Obama has been very competitive there the past few weeks. Your logic indicates that if you don’t put FL there, you should put at least MI in the lean Obama column, and also PA. Also, in the last weeks prior to the election, and maybe starting next week, I would recommend you to try to have an additional or optional electoral college without toss-up states: in that case, I think MI, NH, PA, CO & VA would go for the Dem: that would make an electoral college of Obama 286-252 McCain… what do you people think?
There still seems to be a lot of volatility in the electorate. The debates are going to be a very important factor, given the reported high levels of interest in them and in the election generally.
All across the political spectrum, there’s intense anger at the current financial crisis, although responses vary, combined with complete disdain for the lack of leadership from the current bunch. Voters seem to be looking for genuine leadership, and gotcha politics probably won’t move large blocs of voters in this environment.
The debates may be a trap for Obama. Expectations are set very high for him. His professorial style of cool detachment masks his real passion on these issues. McCain on the other hand is always choleric, even when discussing the weather, and he may start spouting his newly-discovered populism. Voters expect emotional bonding as well as intellectual capacity from their leaders. They may interpret these differences as evidence of a major gap in emotional commitment, and it’s that apparent lack of commitment, the absence of flashes of anger in his informal remarks, that has caused Obama problems IMO. That, and race, of course.
I agree with just about all of zoot excecpt the part about voters wanting intellectual capacity, just look at our current President! Most voters are complete morons and distrust anyone that shows any intelligence.
I don’t know about the debates being a trap for Obama, but we will see. In my personal opinion I think Americans prefer the cool intellecual demenator in the midst of the econmic crisis.
“Remember that states that are in the “lean” category are considered to be very competitive and certain to be hotly contested, but it is possible to say that one candidate has a slight edge at this time.”
I’m never known to be an optimist, but given that statement, I think if we have FL & NC in the lean McCain column (which I don’t disagree with), I think Obama has a slight edge in Michigan and Pennslyvania. It’s definitely no where near enough to put it in Likely, but to say it’s a 50/50 toss-up, I think is a little strong. But then again, at the same time, I wouldn’t put WA, OR, & IA in the same category as MI & PA, so I guess those would be Likely Obama for me.
Also in the detailed ratings section, it shows West Virginia from “Safe McCain to Lean McCain” whereas the map and other data and verbiage state Likely McCain is the current rating.
Jaxx, I had a chance to talk to a senior member of his campaign infrastructure yesterday, who had the same concern. The body language has to match the message, and sometimes his doesn’t. The advice from this person was quite simple: If you’re making an important point and want to connect with the interviewer and the audience beyond, lean towards him or her, don’t sit back in a relaxed posture.
Sure, its street theater, but that’s the level a lot of people operate at. Still, I hope you’re right - the severity of this crisis should demand cool consideration and not flailing around with shallow emotionalism, but we’ve learned from history that isn’t always the case.
BTW, Mike Bloomberg’s interview on MTP today was simply one of the most impressive and mature performances in recent history. If/when Barack wins, one of his first moves should be to bring him into his administration.
Felipe, I think your right about all that you said,except Virginia, That is a bit of reach for Obama