Campaign Diaries

We have known which states the two campaigns are focusing on for some time now, but the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project’s latest calculations of state-by-state advertising expenditures give us a very useful picture of where the campaigns (who surely have private tracking polls in most of these states) think the election will be decided.

In the week following the GOP convention, the two parties spent roughly the same amount - about $8 million - suggesting that McCain is having no trouble saying on par financially. However, some of the GOP’s money comes from the RNC, while Obama is not relying on DNC advertising; and Obama’s ground operation is more expensive - and more extensive.

It is fascinating to see which states the two campaigns are spending the most in - as they are two states that most observers consider to be slightly leaning to the opposite party. The Obama campaign spent $1.3 million in Florida (compared to $1 million for McCain); the McCain campaign spent an outstanding $1.6 million in Pennsylvania, vastly outspending Obama’s $948,000.

Among other states, the two campaigns are spending roughly equally in Colorado (about half-a-million), Ohio (about $800,000). The McCain campaign is very slightly outspending his rival’s in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Nevada. One very interesting finding is that the two campaigns are now spending comparable amounts in North Carolina - $300,000 for Obama and $245,000 for McCain - a remarkable development considering how recently McCain moved in the Tar Heel state.

But there remain a number of states in which there is a very dramatic spending disparity. Those include Minnesota, a state in which McCain invested nearly half-a-million and Obama has only put in $18,000 (mostly to reach an Iowa market); Iowa, where McCain is outspending Obama more than 2:1; Virginia, where Obama has put in more than $850,000 in one week while McCain has only poured in $312,000.

Then there are three states in which Obama is investing but McCain isn’t (Indiana, Montana and North Dakota), but Obama has put in relatively little money there, though $37,000 in Montana, $22,000 go much further than the same amount would in states with more expensive markets. Less dramatic but still very much there are the disparities in Michigan (Obama is spending $900,000; McCain $750,000) and Missouri (Obama is spending half-a-million; McCain $350,000).

What this means:

1. The two parties have not only not given up on flipping Florida and Pennsylvania, but they think that they are as ripe for pick-up as any - quite a challenge to the conventional wisdom! David Plouffe said yesterday that the Obama campaign was looking to spend an stunning $39 million in Florida alone, while it is remarkable that McCain is spending more than twice as much in Pennsylvania than he is in Michigan.
2. Similarly, neither campaign has given up on other states in which the conventional wisdom holds that opponents have a clear edge: While New Mexico remains competitive enough that McCain’s investment is expected, it is surprising to see the GOP spend this much money in Iowa and Minnesota. The same is true with Obama in Missouri.
3. Obama has succeeded in forcing McCain to invest in two states the GOP was hoping it would not have to spend anything in - North Carolina and Florida. McCain spent the summer without spending a dime on airwaves in these states.
4. McCain might not think that Michigan is as central to his chances as was expected, otherwise he might be more proactive about contesting the state. And the truly interesting numbers are those from Virginia: McCain is spending roughly as much money there than he is is North Carolina, which reflects his campaign’s belief that Virginia will remain Republican unless the entire country tilts Democratic, in which case they will have lost states like Ohio already. But why are they not thinking the same in North Carolina?

Meanwhile, another story we have looked up is registration numbers. Two new set of numbers today - both positive for Democrats. First comes a story from the Washington Post about Virginia. More than 283,000 new voters have registered since the beginning of the year, but the best number for Democrats isn’t how many new voters there are but where these are located. The article notes that the fastest growth has occurred in the most Democratic counties, while conservative regions (Shenandoah Valley or Hanover County) are growing very slowly.

Of course, we have long known that changes in Virginia’s electorate have made the state more accessible for Democrats, and getting those voters to the poll on November 4th is yet another challenge that needs to be met. But for now the numbers are impressive. In Richmond, for instance, a full 11% of the electorate is made up of voters who have registered since January 1st - quite an outstanding figure. And “the number of registered voters has increased by about 10 percent since Jan. 1.” And in what is the take-away quote from the piece: “In almost every county and city with a history of supporting Democratic presidential candidates, the number of registered voters has increased by about 10 percent since Jan. 1.”

Another outstanding number comes from Indiana, where 500,000 new voters have registered since January 1st alone. That represents about 20% of the 2004 electorate, and while some of them will not vote and many will vote Republican, this dramatic expansion of the electorate (which has Indiana election officials worried they might be swamped by unprecedented turnout on November 4th) is a crucial reason that the Hoosier State is competitive this year. After all, many of these registration are due to Clinton and Obama teams’ efforts in the run-up to the crucial May 6th primary, and Obama is the only candidate who has invested in the state since then (as I mentioned above).

In other battleground news:

• The New York Times’s expose on Pennsylvania’s Catholic vote has much for Democrats to be concerned about, including interviews with a disturbingly high number of McCain-voting Clinton supporters and a Democrat willing to openly admit he is not voting for Obama because of his race.

• While most of the attention has been focused on Northern Virginia, the New York Times explains that the key to winning the state could be conservative-leaning Hamptons Road.

• The Las Vegas Sun reports that the state’s Jewish community is more divided than ever.

• The Boston Globe finds that the McCain campaign is catching up to Obama’s in Wisconsin.