American Research Group just released an unusually large collection of state polls. Though some of the most competitive battlegrounds (FL, PA, MI, NH, VA) are missing, this certainly gives us a good idea of the field of play heading in the final run. Overall, more swing states favor McCain (he narrowly leads in Colorado and Nevada, more comfortably in Ohio and by double-digits in North Carolina), but most numbers are well within the margin of error and Obama gets some good results as well (he leads in New Mexico and is very competitive in both Montana and West Virginia).
First, some other presidential polls that have been released since last night - including a new poll from Virginia:
- Obama leads 47% to 45% in a national poll released this morning by Reuters/Zogby. This is a 7% shift in his favor since the August poll. The poll was taken from Thursday through Saturday. Both candidates get 89% of their party’s vote.
- There is a tie at 45% in another national poll, released by AP Ipsos. The poll was taken Thursday through Monday and is a one point gain for Obama since last week’s survey that found McCain up 1.
- Obama leads 48% to 46% in a PPP poll from Virginia. This is the 4th PPP poll in a row to find Obama leading by 2%. Obama gets 91% of Democrats but trails among independents by 17%.
- Obama leads McCain 52% to 36% in a Field poll of California. Sarah Palin’s favorability rating is by far the worst of the four candidates.
- Obama leads 55% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of New York. McCain had 32% in August and 28% in July.
No surprises, nor anything particularly stunning in those surveys, though they confirm that the race has moved back to a dead heat nationally. Democrats will also be reassured by PPP’s Virginia poll, as McCain seems to have gained ground in other swing states (PA, OH, MN) but not Virginia. Now, on to ARG’s polls, starting with those from competitive states. All polls have a margin of error of 4%, and they have not all been taken at the same time:
- McCain leads 50% to 44% in Ohio. The poll was taken the 10th to the 13th. Obama only gets 79% of the Democratic vote. (The partisan breakdown is much more Republican than most polls that have been released of late; SUSA’s poll last week had a 9% edge for Democrats but this one is equal.)
- McCain leads 46% to 44% in Colorado. The poll was also taken the 10th to the 13th. There are more Republicans than Democrats, and Obama leads by 14% among Democrats.
- McCain leads 49% to 46% in Nevada. Here again, more Republicans are polled than Democrats but Obama leads among independents. The poll was taken over the week-end.
- Obama leads 51% to 44% in New Mexico. Democrats make up 51% of the sample (40% in 2004) and Obama leads among independents.
- McCain leads 49% to 47% in Montana. Ron Paul was not included, and neither were Barr and Nader in a state in which third party candidates could make a difference. The poll was conducted early, the 7th to the 9th.
- McCain leads 49% to 45% in West Virginia.
- McCain leads 52% to 41% in North Carolina, a disappointing result for Obama who only gets 25% among white voters. The poll was conducted over this week-end.
- McCain leads 50% to 45% in Missouri. The poll was conducted Thursday through Monday.
- Obama leads 51% to 41% in Maine.
- McCain leads 58% to 36% in Alabama, 55% to 39% in Alaska, 56% to 39% in Arizona, 68% to 25% in Idaho, 63% to 31% in Kansas, 57% to 37% in Kentucky, 50% to 43% in Louisiana, 57% to 36% in Texas, 65% to 29% in Utah and 66% to 28% in Wyoming.
- Obama leads 82% to 13% in DC, 51% to 40% in Delaware, 63% to 32% in Hawaii, 51% to 45% in Illinois, 55% to 38% in New York, 59% to 33% in Rhode Island.
It is remarkable how few surprises there are in these polls, with most results - including those in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico - tracking the average of recent polls from these states. Colorado and Nevada confirm that they are among the ultimate toss-ups of this year’s contest. The least expected results are surely those from West Virginia (this is the second poll in a row to find a competitive race), Illinois (does anything think Obama has something to fear there) and North Carolina, where pollsters seem unable to find a coherent model and where numbers are all over the place - from a 2% race to a 20% race.
Obama will also be reassured by the Montana poll, as the only recent survey we had seen (from Rasmussen) had McCain surging to a lead in the aftermath of the convention. The question facing his campaign now is whether to invest in West Virginia, a state that had long been ruled out for Obama because of his problems in Appalachia. There have been rumblings of that as of late, but no sign for now that Democrats will move in there. [Update, and partial correction: As Ben points out in the comments section, Obama ads are running in many of the state's markets because of overlap with advertising in neighboring states. The same is true for McCain in New Jersey.]
A series of bad economic news and McCain’s repeat of “the fundamentals of the economy are strong’ all occurred prior to most of the polls you just referenced, Taniel, so I believe that the best polls will come out at the end of this week or next week, and I am confident they will show a trend toward Obama outside the MoE.
It does not take 24 hours or 48 hours for voters’ moods to be reflected in polls, so I shall question the credibility of all polls released today. We have to wait and see for more polls on Friday to cap the week’s events to see where thigns stan.
Interesting results and in general more positive for Obama. He can reach 270 with these results and if the surveys are slightly more skewed by their partisan breakdown then that will help Obama’s final results. Montant was thought to have been lost due to Plain - seems not to be the case. Colorado and Virginia are winnable. Very surprised by WV and it is worth spending some money there - not an expensive state to try and has 5 EV’s so worth it.
Obama is coming back in the National Polls slightly so we will see if this is concentrated in states he needs. This weeks news may help him and we will get an idea by the end of the week in polls to see if that is the case.
It is my understanding that Obama is already reaching 40% of households in West Virginia through the DC, Pittsburgh, Charleston/Huntington and Wheeling/Steubenville markets. The question is does his campaign want to buy time in the Clarksburg /Weston and Beckley/Bluefield markets.
Ohio is troublesome for Obama. McCain has been up consistently since early September and the more recent polls have been remarkably consistent although within the margins of error. That suggests that this was not just a post-convention bounce for McCain, but that Obama is meeting resistance from Ohio working class voters. We know anecdotally that he polls miserably in the southern part of the state, where they have a much more mid-Southern than mid-Western perspective.
Having just dispensed that jewel of an insight, I now see that Gallup shows Obama with his first lead since the GOP convention (http://tinyurl.com/5k62a6), Zogby -Reuters now shows a national lead for Obama (http://tinyurl.com/4qxug5), while Charlie Cook hints at a developing momentum shift (http://tinyurl.com/5zn9ga). Still, these are macro-assessments, and like many of us, I believe this election will be decided on the electoral map, not the popular vote.
Obama shouldn’t abandon Ohio for a variety of reasons, but if on continued reflection Ohio is doubtful, and FL doesn’t close more (http://tinyurl.com/62a4ee), then what? It’s not impossible, but he’s threading an increasingly narrow channel.
I’m still wary of trusting ARG’s polling methods given how off a lot of their numbers were during the primaries. Though with that said, a lot of these numbers are around what we’ve been seeing in other states. I really wish more polling firms would release more state by state numbers rather than just national ones, especially out of under-polled states like New Hampshire.
Chris, I agree with you on ARG, they’re more often the outlier. In NH, the most reliable poll is usually Andy Smith/UNH. He hasn’t polled since July, don’t know why.
In the meanwhile, Sununu keeps wriggling like a bonefish on a hook to get away both from W and from McCain’s neanderthal economic views (http://tinyurl.com/5rrznd)
Good luck - the only thing that will rescue John Jr is a lingering antipathy to Shaheen amongst some Dems, plus torrents of RNC dollars manifesting themselves in a slew of ads, some rather venomous.
From Rasmussen:
OREGON: Obama +4
WISCONSIN: Obama +2
Interesting numbers from CNN. They have Obama up by 2 in Ohio, up by three in Wisconsin, down by only one in North Carolina, and tied in Florida.