As there are an increasing number of polls being released daily and since I have not posted a poll roundup since Saturday, a mid-day check in seems to be in order. After all, polls that will come in later today - including Rasmussen’s latest take from CO, VA, OH, FL and PA - will start giving us a clearer idea of what the playing field looks like now that a week has passed since the GOP convention.
For now, one of the indications we have is from SUSA’s Virginia poll, taken over the week-end and which has Obama gaining six points in a week and (very importantly) gaining a lot of ground among independents. Here’s the mid-day full roundup:
- Obama leads 50% to 46% in a SUSA poll of Virginia. McCain led by 2% last week. The ad was taken Friday through Sunday, so it seems to be the first state poll entirely taken more than a week after the GOP convention. McCain is down quite dramatically among independents. He led by 21%, he is now ahead by 4%.
- McCain leads 46% to 42% in a new Suffolk poll of Ohio. The poll was taken Wednesday through Saturday.
- Obama leads 52% to 40% in a Des Moines Register poll of Iowa. Obama leads by 13% among independents. The survey was conducted by Selzer Co., generally considered to be the best polling firm in Iowa, as you might remember from the coverage of the DMR’s final caucus poll on January 1st.
- Obama and McCain are tied at 45% in a Star Tribune poll of Minnesota. The Star Tribune’s May poll had Obama leading by 13%.
- Obama leads 50% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. The poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday; in May, Obama led by 8%. A stunning 98% of respondents said they were paying attention to the race!
- Obama leads 46% to 37% in an Elway poll of Washington. The poll was taken last week-end (from the 6th to the 8th).
- Obama leads 46% to 41% in a Siena poll of New York. That’s obviously a very weak showing in one of the bluest states in the country. The poll was taken last Monday through last Wednesday, so shortly after the GOP convention. Obama only led by 8% in Siena’s August poll.
- Obama leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Delaware. Kerry won by 7% in 2004. Obama’s “very favorable” rating is at an excellent 41%.
- McCain leads 68% to 24% in a Deseret poll of Utah.
- McCain leads 64% to 32% in another Utah poll released by Rasmussen.
A number of these polls are important, starting (of course) with SUSA’s Virginia poll. If other polls find a similar tightening among independents, it could mean that McCain’s convention gains are fading - but we will have more indications of that later today and tomorrow. But the Star Tribune’s Minnesota poll certainly counter-balances by bringing McCain very good news; there have been numerous polls in the past few weeks finding Minnesota tightening, and I talked more about that yesterday.
The DMR’s Iowa poll is noteworthy because of how good a reputation Selzer’s polls have. This is confirmation of something we have known for a while - Iowa is more solidly in Obama’s column than many Kerry states, and its 7 electoral votes are a good foundation from which Obama can build his way to an electoral college majority.
The New Jersey and Washington polls, finally, are important as they are from states that were starting to look strangely close in some of the polls released last week. Obama leads in 9% in both states, a margin that is more in line with what we have been seeing than the 2-3% Washington margins we saw in SUSA and Rasmussen. But Obama does post very weak numbers in New York (the poll was taken last Monday through last Wednesday). The past two non-Siena New York polls (both taken around the time Siena had Obama leading by 8% in August) have Obama up 19% and 21%.